http://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/api.php?action=feedcontributions&user=B22chang&feedformat=atomstatwiki - User contributions [US]2022-05-20T04:55:00ZUser contributionsMediaWiki 1.28.3http://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=Superhuman_AI_for_Multiplayer_Poker&diff=47563Superhuman AI for Multiplayer Poker2020-11-29T02:12:01Z<p>B22chang: /* Conclusion */</p>
<hr />
<div>== Presented by == <br />
Hansa Halim, Sanjana Rajendra Naik, Samka Marfua, Shawrupa Proshasty<br />
<br />
== Introduction ==<br />
<br />
A superintelligence is a hypothetical agent that possesses intelligence far surpassing that of the brightest and most gifted human minds. In the past two decades, most of the superhuman AI that was built can only beat human players in two-player zero-sum games. The most common strategy that the AI uses to beat those games is to find the most optimal Nash equilibrium. A Nash equilibrium is a pair of strategies such that either single-player switching to any ''other'' choice of strategy (while the other player's strategy remains unchanged) will result in a lower payout for the switching player. Intuitively this is similar to a locally optimal strategy for the players but is (i) not guaranteed to exist and (ii) may not be the truly optimal strategy (for example, in the "Prisoner's dilemma" the Nash equilibrium of both players betraying each other is not the optimal strategy).<br />
<br />
More specifically, in the game of poker, we only have AI models that can beat human players in two-player settings. An example of an AI model that can successfully beat two players in poker is Libratus, which is an AI developed in 2017 that also used MCCFR. Poker is a great challenge in AI and game theory because it captures the challenges in hidden information so elegantly. This means that developing a superhuman AI in multiplayer poker is the remaining great milestone in this field, because there is no polynomial-time algorithm that can find a Nash equilibrium in two-player non-zero-sum games, and having one would have surprising implications in computational complexity theory.<br />
<br />
In this paper, the AI which we call Pluribus is capable of defeating human professional poker players in Texas hold'em poker which is a six-player poker game and is the most commonly played format in the world. The algorithm that is used is not guaranteed to converge to a Nash algorithm outside of two-player zero-sum games. However, it uses a strong strategy that is capable of consistently defeating elite human professionals. This shows that despite not having strong theoretical guarantees on performance, they are capable of applying a wider class of superhuman strategies.<br />
<br />
== Nash Equilibrium in Multiplayer Games ==<br />
<br />
Many AI has reached superhuman performance in games like checkers, chess, two-player limit poker, Go, and two-player no-limit poker. Nash equilibrium has been proven to exist in all finite games and numerous infinite games. However, the challenge is to find the equilibrium. It is the best possible strategy and is unbeatable in two-player zero-sum games since it guarantees to not lose in expectation regardless of what the opponent is doing.<br />
<br />
To have a deeper understanding of Nash Equilibria we must first define some basic game theory concepts. The first one being a strategic game, in game theory a strategic game consists of a set of players, for each player a set of actions and for each player preferences (or payoffs) over the set of action profiles (set of combination of actions). With these three elements, we can model a wide variety of situations. Now a Nash Equilibrium is an action profile, with the property that no player can do better by changing their action, given that all other players' actions remain the same. A common illustration of Nash equilibria is the Prisoner's Dilemma. We also have mixed strategies and mixed strategy Nash equilibria. A mixed strategy is when instead of a player choosing an action they apply a probability distribution to their set of actions and pick randomly. Note that with mixed strategies we must look at the expected payoff of the player given the other players' strategies. Therefore a mixed strategy Nash Equilibria involves at least one player playing with a mixed strategy where no player can increase their expected payoff by changing their action, given that all other players' actions remain the same. Then we can define a pure Nash Equilibria to where no one is playing a mixed strategy. We also must be aware that a single game can have multiple pure Nash equilibria and mixed Nash equilibria. Also, Nash Equilibria are purely theoretical and depend on players acting optimally and being rational, this is not always the case with humans and we can act very irrationally. Therefore empirically we will see that games can have very unexpected outcomes and you may be able to get a better payoff if you move away from a strictly theoretical strategy and take advantage of your opponent's irrational behavior. <br />
<br />
The insufficiency with current AI systems is that they only try to achieve Nash equilibriums instead of trying to actively detect and exploit weaknesses in opponents. At the Nash equilibrium, there is no incentive for any player to change their initial strategy, so it is a stable state of the system. For example, let's consider the game of Rock-Paper-Scissors, the Nash equilibrium is to randomly pick any option with equal probability. However, we can see that this means the best strategy that the opponent can have will result in a tie. Therefore, in this example, our player cannot win in expectation. Now let's try to combine the Nash equilibrium strategy and opponent exploitation. We can initially use the Nash equilibrium strategy and then change our strategy overtime to exploit the observed weaknesses of our opponent. For example, we switch to always play Rock against our opponent who always plays Scissors. However, by shifting away from the Nash equilibrium strategy, it opens up the possibility for our opponent to use our strategy against ourselves. For example, they notice we always play Rock, and thus they will now always play Paper.<br />
<br />
Trying to approximate a Nash equilibrium is hard in theory, and in games with more than two players, it can only find a handful of possible strategies per player. Currently, existing techniques to find ways to exploit an opponent require way too many samples and are not competitive enough outside of small games. Finding a Nash equilibrium in three or more players is a great challenge. Even we can efficiently compute a Nash equilibrium in games with more than two players, it is still highly questionable if playing the Nash equilibrium strategy is a good choice. Additionally, if each player tries to find their own version of a Nash equilibrium, we could have infinitely many strategies and each player’s version of the equilibrium might not even be a Nash equilibrium.<br />
<br />
Consider the Lemonade Stand example from Figure 1 Below. We have 4 players and the goal for each player is to find a spot in the ring that is furthest away from every other player. This way, each lemonade stand can cover as much selling region as possible and generate maximum revenue. In the left circle, we have three different Nash equilibria distinguished by different colors which would benefit everyone. The right circle is an illustration of what would happen if each player decides to calculate their own Nash equilibrium.<br />
<br />
[[File:Lemonade_Example.png| 600px |center ]]<br />
<br />
<div align="center">Figure 1: Lemonade Stand Example</div><br />
<br />
From the right circle in Figure 1, we can see that when each player tries to calculate their own Nash equilibria, their own version of the equilibrium might not be a Nash equilibrium and thus they are not choosing the best possible location. This shows that attempting to find a Nash equilibrium is not the best strategy outside of two-player zero-sum games, and our goal should not be focused on finding a specific game-theoretic solution. Instead, we need to focus on observations and empirical results that consistently defeat human opponents.<br />
<br />
== Theoretical Analysis ==<br />
Pluribus uses forms of abstraction to make computations scalable. To simplify the complexity due to too many decision points, some actions are eliminated from consideration and similar decision points are grouped together and treated as identical. This process is called abstraction. Pluribus uses two kinds of abstraction: Action abstraction and information abstraction. Action abstraction reduces the number of different actions the AI needs to consider. For instance, it does not consider all bet sizes (the exact number of bets it considers varies between 1 and 14 depending on the situation). Information abstraction groups together decision points that reveal similar information. For instance, the player’s cards and revealed board cards. This is only used to reason about situations on future betting rounds, never the current betting round.<br />
<br />
Pluribus uses a builtin strategy - “Blueprint strategy”, which it gradually improves by searching in real time in situations it finds itself in during the course of the game. In the first betting round pluribus uses the initial blueprint strategy when the number of decision points is small. The blueprint strategy is computed using Monte Carlo Counterfactual Regret Minimization (MCCFR) algorithm. CFR is commonly used in imperfect information games AI which is trained by repeatedly playing against copies of itself, without any data of human or prior AI play used as input. For ease of computation of CFR in this context, poker is represented <br />
as a game tree. A game tree is a tree structure where each node represents either a player’s decision, a chance event, or a terminal outcome and edges represent actions taken. <br />
<br />
[[File:Screen_Shot_2020-11-17_at_11.57.00_PM.png| 600px |center ]]<br />
<br />
<div align="center">Figure 1: Kuhn Poker (Simpler form of Poker) </div><br />
<br />
At the start of each iteration, MCCFR stimulates a hand of poker randomly (Cards held by a player at a given time) and designates one player as the traverser of the game tree. Once that is completed, the AI reviews the decision made by the traverser at a decision point in the game and investigates whether the decision was profitable. The AI compares its decision with other actions available to the traverser at that point and also with the future hypothetical decisions that would have been made following the other available actions. To evaluate a decision, the Counterfactual Regret factor is used. This is the difference between what the traverser would have expected to receive for choosing an action and actually received on the iteration. Thus regret is a numeric value, where a positive regret indicates you regret your decision, a negative regret indicates you are happy with your decision, and zero regret indicates that you are indifferent.<br />
<br />
The value of counterfactual regret for a decision is adjusted over the iterations as more scenarios or decision points are encountered. This means at the end of each iteration, the traverser’s strategy is updated so actions with higher counterfactual regret is chosen with higher probability. CFR minimizes regret over many iterations until the average strategy overall iterations converges and the average strategy is the approximated Nash equilibrium. CFR guarantees in all finite games that all counterfactual regrets grow sublinearly in the number of iterations. Pluribus uses Linear CFR in early iterations to reduce the influence of initial bad iterations i.e it assigns a weight of T to regret contributions at iteration T. This leads to the strategy improving more quickly in practice.<br />
<br />
An additional feature of Pluribus is that in the subgames, instead of assuming that all players play according to a single strategy, Pluribus considers that each player may choose between k different strategies specialized to each player when a decision point is reached. This results in the searcher choosing a more balanced strategy. For instance, if a player never bluffs while holding the best possible hand then the opponents would learn that fact and always fold in that scenario. To fold in that scenario is a balanced strategy than to bet.<br />
Therefore, the blueprint strategy is produced offline for the entire game and it is gradually improved while making real-time decisions during the game.<br />
<br />
== Experimental Results ==<br />
To test how well Pluribus functions, it was tested against human players in 2 formats. The first format included 5 human players and one copy of Pluribus (5H+1AI). The 13 human participants were poker players who have won more than $1M playing professionally and were provided with cash incentives to play their best. 10,000 hands of poker were played over 12 days with the 5H+1AI format by anonymizing the players by providing each of them with aliases that remained consistent throughout all their games. The aliases helped the players keep track of the tendencies and types of games played by each player over the 10,000 hands played. <br />
<br />
The second format included one human player and 5 copies of Pluribus (1H+5AI) . There were 2 more professional players who split another 10,000 hands of poker by playing 5000 hands each and followed the same aliasing process as the first format.<br />
Performance was measured using milli big blinds per game, mbb/game, (i.e. the initial amount of money the second player has to put in the pot) which is the standard measure in the AI field. Additionally, AIVAT was used as the variance reduction technique to control for luck in the games, and significance tests were run at a 95% significance level with one-tailed t-tests as a check for Pluribus’s performance in being profitable.<br />
<br />
Applying AIVAT the following were the results:<br />
{| class="wikitable" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; border: none;"<br />
! scope="col" | Format !! scope="col" | Average mbb/game !! scope="col" | Standard Error in mbb/game !! scope="col" | P-value of being profitable <br />
|-<br />
! scope="row" | 5H+1AI <br />
| 48 || 25 || 0.028 <br />
|-<br />
! scope="row" | 1H+5AI <br />
| 32 || 15 || 0.014<br />
|}<br />
[[File:top.PNG| 950px | x450px |left]]<br />
<br />
<br />
<div align="center">"Figure 3. Performance of Pluribus in the 5 humans + 1 AI experiment. The dots show Pluribus's performance at the end of each day of play. (Top) The lines show the win rate (solid line) plus or minus the standard error (dashed lines). (Bottom) The lines show the cumulative number of mbbs won (solid line) plus or minus the standard error (dashed lines). The relatively steady performance of Pluribus over the course of the 10,000-hand experiment also suggests that the humans were unable to find exploitable weaknesses in the bot."</div> <br />
<br />
Optimal play in Pluribus looks different from well-known poker conventions: A standard convention of “limping” in poker (calling the 'big blind' rather than folding or raising) is confirmed to be not optimal by Pluribus since it initially experimented with it but eliminated this from its strategy over its games of self-play. On the other hand, another convention of “donk betting” (starting a round by betting when someone else ended the previous round with a call) that is dismissed by players was adopted by Pluribus much more often than played by humans, and is proven to be profitable.<br />
<br />
== Discussion and Critiques ==<br />
<br />
Pluribus' Blueprint strategy and Abstraction methods effectively reduce the computational power required. Hence it was computed in 8 days and required less than 512 GB of memory, and costs about $144 to produce. This is in sharp contrast to all the other recent superhuman AI milestones for games. This is a great way the researchers have condensed down the problem to fit the current computational powers. <br />
<br />
Pluribus definitely shows that we can capture observational data and empirical results to construct a superhuman AI without requiring theoretical guarantees, this can be a baseline for future AI inventions and help in the research of AI. It would be interesting to use Pluribus's way of using a non-theoretical approach in more real-life problems such as autonomous driving or stock market trading.<br />
<br />
Extending this idea beyond two-player zero sum games will have many applications in real life.<br />
<br />
The summary for Superhuman AI for Multiplayer Poker is very well written, with a detailed explanation of the concept, steps, and result and with a combination of visual images. However, it seems that the experiment of the study is not well designed. For example: sample selection is not strict and well defined, this could cause selection bias introduced into the result and thus making it not generalizable.<br />
<br />
Superhuman AI, while sounding superior, is actually not uncommon. There have been many endeavours on mastering poker such as the Recursive Belief-based Learning (ReBeL) by Facebook Research. They pursued a method of reinforcement learning on partially observable Markov decision process which was inspired by the recent successes of AlphaZero. For Pluribus to demonstrate how effective it is compared to the state-of-the-art, it should run some experiments against ReBeL.<br />
<br />
This is a very interesting topic, and this summary is clear enough for readers to understand. I think this application not only can apply in poker, maybe thinking more applications in other areas? There are many famous AI that really changing our life. For example, AlphaGo and AlphaStar, which are developed by Google DeepMind, defeated professional gamers. Discussing more this will be interesting.<br />
<br />
One of the biggest issues when applying AI to games against humans with imperfect information (eg. opponents' cards are unknown) is the assumption is generally made that the human players are rational players which follow a certain set of "rules" based on the information that they know. This could be an issue with the fact that Pluribus has trained itself by playing itself instead of humans. While the results clearly show that Pluribus has found some kind of 'optimal' method to play, it would be interesting to see if it could actually maximize its profits by learning the trends of its human opponents over time (learning on the fly with information gained each hand while it's playing).<br />
<br />
== Conclusion ==<br />
<br />
As Pluribus’s strategy was not developed with any human data and was trained by self-play only, it is an unbiased and different perspective on how optimal play can be attained. However, it would be hard to perform this in the real world as it includes multiple players and the information is mostly hidden which makes it challenging to apply. <br />
Developing a superhuman AI for multiplayer poker was a widely recognized<br />
a milestone in this area and the major remaining milestone in computer poker.<br />
Pluribus’s success shows that despite the lack of known strong theoretical guarantees on performance in multiplayer games, there are large-scale, complex multiplayer imperfect information settings in which a carefully constructed self-play-with-search algorithm can produce superhuman strategies.<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
<br />
Noam Brown and Tuomas Sandholm (July 11, 2019). Superhuman AI for multiplayer poker. Science 365.<br />
<br />
Osborne, Martin J.; Rubinstein, Ariel (12 Jul 1994). A Course in Game Theory. Cambridge, MA: MIT. p. 14.<br />
<br />
Justin Sermeno. (2020, November 17). Vanilla Counterfactual Regret Minimization for Engineers. https://justinsermeno.com/posts/cfr/#:~:text=Counterfactual%20regret%20minimization%20%28CFR%29%20is%20an%20algorithm%20that,decision.%20It%20can%20be%20positive%2C%20negative%2C%20or%20zero<br />
<br />
Brown, N., Bakhtin, A., Lerer, A., & Gong, Q. (2020). Combining deep reinforcement learning and search for imperfect-information games. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 33.<br />
<br />
N. Brown and T. Sandholm, "Superhuman AI for heads-up no-limit poker: Libratus beats top professionals", Science, vol. 359, no. 6374, pp. 418-424, 2017. Available: 10.1126/science.aao1733 [Accessed 27 November 2020].</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=Summary_for_survey_of_neural_networked-based_cancer_prediction_models_from_microarray_data&diff=45452Summary for survey of neural networked-based cancer prediction models from microarray data2020-11-21T01:17:34Z<p>B22chang: /* Summary */</p>
<hr />
<div>== Presented by == <br />
Rao Fu, Siqi Li, Yuqin Fang, Zeping Zhou<br />
<br />
== Introduction == <br />
Microarray technology is widely used in analyzing genetic diseases as it can help researchers detect genetic information rapidly. In the study of cancer, the researchers use this technology to compare normal and abnormal cancerous tissues so that they can understand better about the pathology of cancer. However, what might affect the accuracy and computation time of this cancer model is the high dimensionality of the gene expressions. To cope with this problem, we need to use the feature selection method or feature creation method. <br />
One of the most powerful methods in machine learning is neural networks. In this paper, we will review the latest neural network-based cancer prediction models by presenting the methodology of preprocessing, filtering, prediction, and clustering gene expressions.<br />
<br />
== Background == <br />
<br />
'''Neural Network''' <br><br />
Neural networks are often used to solve non-linear complex problems. It is an operational model consisting of a large number of neurons connected to each other by different weights. In this network structure, each neuron is related to an activation function. To train the network, the inputs are fed forward and the activation function value is calculated at every neuron. The difference between the output of the neural network and the desired output is what we called an error.<br />
The backpropagation mechanism is one of the most commonly used algorithms in solving neural network problems. By using this algorithm, we optimize the objective function by propagating back the generated error through the network to adjust the weights.<br />
In the next sections, we will use the above algorithm but with different network architectures and a different numbers of neurons to review the neural network-based cancer prediction models for learning the gene expression features.<br />
<br />
'''Cancer prediction models'''<br><br />
Cancer prediction models often contain more than 1 method to achieve high prediction accuracy with a more accurate prognosis and it also aims to reduce the cost of patients.<br />
<br />
High dimensionality and spatial structure are the two main factors that can affect the accuracy of the cancer prediction models. They add irrelevant noisy features to our selected models. We have 3 ways to determine the accuracy of a model.<br />
<br />
The first is called ROC curve. It reflects the sensitivity of the response to the same signal stimulus under different criteria. To test its validity, we need to consider it with the confidence interval. Usually, a model is a good one when its ROC is greater than 0.7. Another way to measure the performance of a model is to use CI, which explains the concordance probability of the predicted and observed survival. The closer its value to 0.7, the better the model is. The third measurement method is using the Brier score. A brier score measures the average difference between the observed and the estimated survival rate in a given period of time. It ranges from 0 to 1, and a lower score indicates higher accuracy.<br />
<br />
== Neural network-based cancer prediction models ==<br />
By performing an extensive search relevant to neural network-based cancer prediction using Google scholar and other electronic databases namely PubMed and Scopus with keywords such as “Neural Networks AND Cancer Prediction” and “gene expression clustering”, the chosen papers covered cancer classification, discovery, survivability prediction and the statistical analysis models. The following figure 1 shows a graph representing the number of citations including filtering, predictive and clustering for chosen papers. [[File:f1.png]]<br />
<br />
'''Datasets and preprocessing''' <br><br />
Most studies investigating automatic cancer prediction and clustering used datasets such as the TCGA, UCI, NCBI Gene Expression Omnibus and Kentridge biomedical databases. There are a few of techniques used in processing dataset including removing the genes that have zero expression across all samples, Normalization, filtering with p value > 10^-05 to remove some unwanted technical variation and log2 transformations. Statistical methods, neural network, were applied to reduce the dimensionality of the gene expressions by selecting a subset of genes. Principle Component Analysis (PCA) can also be used as an initial preprocessing step to extract the datasets features. The PCA method linearly transforms the dataset features into lower dimensional space without capturing the complex relationships between the features. However, simply removing the genes that were not measured by the other datasets could not overcame the class imbalance problem. In that case, one research used Synthetic Minority Class Over Sampling method to generate synthetic minority class samples, which may lead to sparse matrix problem. Clustering was also applied in some studies for labeling data by grouping the samples into high-risk, low-risk groups and so on. <br />
<br />
The following table presents the dataset used by considered reference, the applied normalization technique, the cancer type and the dimensionality of the datasets.<br />
[[File:Datasets and preprocessing.png]]<br />
<br />
'''Neural network architecture''' <br><br />
Most recent studies reveal that filtering, predicting methods and cluster methods are used in cancer prediction. For filtering, the resulted features are used with statistical methods or machine learning classification and cluster tools such as decision trees, K Nearest Neighbor and Self Organizing Maps(SOM) as figure 2 indicates.[[File:filtering gane.png]]<br />
<br />
All neural network’s neurons work as feature detectors that learn the input’s features. For our categorization into filtering, predicting and clustering methods was based on the overall rule that a neural network performs in the cancer prediction method. Filtering methods are trained to remove the input’s noise and to extract the most representative features that best describe the unlabeled gene expressions. Predicting methods are trained to extract the features that are significant to prediction, therefore its objective functions measure how accurately the network is able to predict the class of an input. Clustering methods are trained to divide unlabeled samples into groups based on their similarities.<br />
<br />
'''Building neural networks-based approaches for gene expression prediction''' <br><br />
According to our survey, the representative codes are generated by filtering methods with dimensionality M smaller or equal to N, where N is the dimensionality of the input. Some other machine learning algorithm such as naïve Bayes or k-means can be used together with the filtering.<br />
Predictive neural networks are supervised, which find the best classification accuracy; meanwhile, clustering methods are unsupervised, which group similar samples or genes together. <br />
The goal of training prediction is to enhance the classification capability, and the goal of training classification is to find the optimal group to a new test set with unknown labels.<br />
<br />
'''Neural network filters for cancer prediction''' <br><br />
In the preprocessing step to classification, clustering and statistical analysis, the autoencoders are more and more commonly-used, to extract generic genomic features. An autoencoder is composed of the encoder part and the decoder part. The encoder part is to learn the mapping between high-dimensional unlabeled input I(x) and the low-dimensional representations in the middle layer(s), and the decoder part is to learn the mapping from the middle layer’s representation to the high-dimensional output O(x). The reconstruction of the input can take the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) or the Logloss function as the objective function. <br />
<br />
$$ RMSE = \sqrt{ \frac{\sum{(I(x)-O(x))^2}}{n} } $$<br />
<br />
$$ Logloss = \sum{(I(x)log(O(x)) + (1 - I(x))log(1 - O(x)))} $$<br />
<br />
There are several types of autoencoders, such as stacked denoising autoencoders, contractive autoencoders, sparse autoencoders, regularized autoencoders and variational autoencoders. The architecture of the networks varies in many parameters, such as depth and loss function. Each example of an autoencoder mentioned above has different number of hidden layers, different activation functions (e.g. sigmoid function, exponential linear unit function), and different optimization algorithms (e.g. stochastic gradient decent optimization, Adam optimizer).<br />
<br />
The neural network filtering methods were used by different statistical methods and classifiers. The conventional methods include Cox regression model analysis, Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-means clustering, t-SNE and so on. The classifiers could be SVM or AdaBoost or others.<br />
<br />
By using neural network filtering methods, the model can be trained to learn low-dimensional representations, remove noises from the input, and gain better generalization performance by re-training the classifier with the newest output layer.<br />
<br />
'''Neural network prediction methods for cancer''' <br><br />
The prediction based on neural networks can build a network that maps the input features to an output with a number of neurons, which could be one or two for binary classification, or more for multi-class classification. It can also build several independent binary neural networks for the multi-class classification, where the technique called “one-hot encoding” is applied.<br />
<br />
The codeword is a binary string C’k of length k whose j’th position is set to 1 for the j’th class, while other positions remain 0. The process of the neural networks is to map the input to the codeword iteratively, whose objective function is minimized in each iteration.<br />
<br />
Such cancer classifiers were applied on identify cancerous/non-cancerous samples, a specific cancer type, or the survivability risk. MLP models were used to predict the survival risk of lung cancer patients with several gene expressions as input. The deep generative model DeepCancer, the RBM-SVM and RBM-logistic regression models, the convolutional feedforward model DeepGene, Extreme Learning Machines (ELM), the one-dimensional convolutional framework model SE1DCNN, and GA-ANN model are all used for solving cancer issues mentioned above. This paper indicates that the performance of neural networks with MLP architecture as classifier are better than those of SVM, logistic regression, naïve Bayes, classification trees and KNN.<br />
<br />
'''Neural network clustering methods in cancer prediction''' <br><br />
Neural network clustering belongs to unsupervised learning. The input data are divided into different groups according to their feature similarity.<br />
The single-layered neural network SOM, which is unsupervised and without backpropagation mechanism, is one of the traditional model-based techniques to be applied on gene expression data. The measurement of its accuracy could be Rand Index (RI), which can be improved to Adjusted Random Index (ARI) and Normalized Mutation Information (NMI).<br />
<br />
$$ RI=\frac{TP+TN}{TP+TN+FP+FN}$$<br />
<br />
In general, gene expression clustering considers either the relevance of samples-to-cluster assignment or that of gene-to-cluster assignment, or both. To solve the high dimensionality problem, there are two methods: clustering ensembles by running a single clustering algorithm for several times, each of which has different initialization or number of parameters; and projective clustering by only considering a subset of the original features.<br />
<br />
SOM was applied on discriminating future tumor behavior using molecular alterations, whose results were not easy to be obtained by classic statistical models. Then this paper introduces two ensemble clustering frameworks: Random Double Clustering-based Cluster Ensembles (RDCCE) and Random Double Clustering-based Fuzzy Cluster Ensembles (RDCFCE). Their accuracies are high, but they have not taken gene-to-cluster assignment into consideration.<br />
<br />
Also, the paper provides double SOM based Clustering Ensemble Approach (SOM2CE) and double NG-based Clustering Ensemble Approach (NG2CE), which are robust to noisy genes. Moreover, Projective Clustering Ensemble (PCE) combines the advantages of both projective clustering and ensemble clustering, which is better than SOM and RDCFCE when there are irrelevant genes.<br />
<br />
== Summary ==<br />
<br />
Cancer is a disease with a very high fatality rate that spreads worldwide, and it’s essential to analyze gene expression for discovering gene abnormalities and increasing survivability as a consequence. The previous analysis in the paper reveals that neural networks are essentially used for filtering the gene expressions, predicting their class, or clustering them.<br />
<br />
Neural network filtering methods are used to reduce the dimensionality of the gene expressions and remove their noise. In the article, the authors recommended deep architectures more than shallow architectures for best practice as they combine many nonlinearities. <br />
<br />
Neural network prediction methods can be used for both binary and multi-class problems. In binary cases, the network architecture has only one or two output neurons that diagnose a given sample as cancerous or non-cancerous, while the number of the output neurons in multi-class problems is equal to the number of classes. The authors suggested that the deep architecture with convolution layers which was the most recently used model proved efficient capability and in predicting cancer subtypes as it captures the spatial correlations between gene expressions.<br />
Clustering is another analysis tool that is used to divide the gene expressions into groups. The authors indicated that a hybrid approach combining both the ensembling clustering and projective clustering is more accurate than using single-point clustering algorithms such as SOM since those methods do not have the capability to distinguish the noisy genes.<br />
<br />
==Discussion==<br />
There are some technical problems that can be considered and improved for building new models. <br><br />
<br />
1. Overfitting: Since gene expression datasets are high dimensional and have a relatively small number of samples, it would be likely to properly fits the training data but not accurate for test samples due to the lack of generalization capability. The ways to avoid overfitting can be: (1). adding weight penalties using regularization; (2). using the average predictions from many models trained on different datasets; (3). dropout. (4) Augmentation of the dataset to produce more "observations".<br><br />
<br />
2. Model configuration and training: In order to reduce both the computational and memory expenses but also with high prediction accuracy, it’s crucial to properly set the network parameters. The possible ways can be: (1). proper initialization; (2). pruning the unimportant connections by removing the zero-valued neurons; (3). using ensemble learning framework by training different models using different parameter settings or using different parts of the dataset for each base model; (4). Using SMOTE for dealing with class imbalance on the high dimensional level. <br><br />
<br />
3. Model evaluation: Braga-Neto and Dougherty in their research revealed that cross-validation displayed excessive variance and therefore it is unreliable for small size data. The bootstrap method proved more accurate predictability.<br><br />
<br />
4. Study producibility: A study needs to be reproducible to enhance research reliability so that others can replicate the results using the same algorithms data and methodology.<br />
<br />
==Conclusion==<br />
This paper reviewed the most recent neural network-based cancer prediction models and gene expression analysis tools. The analysis indicates that the neural network methods are able to serve as filters, predictors, and clustering methods, and also showed that the role of the neural network determines its general architecture. To give suggestions for future neural network-based approaches, the authors highlighted some critical points that have to be considered such as overfitting and class imbalance, and suggest choosing different network parameters or combining two or more of the presented approaches. One of the biggest challenges for cancer prediction modelers is deciding on the network architecture (i.e. the number of hidden layers and neurons), as there are currently no guidelines to follow to obtain high prediction accuracy.<br />
<br />
==Critiques==<br />
<br />
While results indicate that the functionality of the neural network determines its general architecture, the decision on the number of hidden layers, neurons, hypermeters and learning algorithm is made using trial-and-error techniques. Therefore improvements in this area of the model might need to be explored in order to obtain better results and in order to make more convincing statements.<br />
<br />
==Reference==<br />
Daoud, M., & Mayo, M. (2019). A survey of neural network-based cancer prediction models from microarray data. Artificial Intelligence in Medicine, 97, 204–214.</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=Summary_for_survey_of_neural_networked-based_cancer_prediction_models_from_microarray_data&diff=45451Summary for survey of neural networked-based cancer prediction models from microarray data2020-11-21T01:16:53Z<p>B22chang: /* Background */</p>
<hr />
<div>== Presented by == <br />
Rao Fu, Siqi Li, Yuqin Fang, Zeping Zhou<br />
<br />
== Introduction == <br />
Microarray technology is widely used in analyzing genetic diseases as it can help researchers detect genetic information rapidly. In the study of cancer, the researchers use this technology to compare normal and abnormal cancerous tissues so that they can understand better about the pathology of cancer. However, what might affect the accuracy and computation time of this cancer model is the high dimensionality of the gene expressions. To cope with this problem, we need to use the feature selection method or feature creation method. <br />
One of the most powerful methods in machine learning is neural networks. In this paper, we will review the latest neural network-based cancer prediction models by presenting the methodology of preprocessing, filtering, prediction, and clustering gene expressions.<br />
<br />
== Background == <br />
<br />
'''Neural Network''' <br><br />
Neural networks are often used to solve non-linear complex problems. It is an operational model consisting of a large number of neurons connected to each other by different weights. In this network structure, each neuron is related to an activation function. To train the network, the inputs are fed forward and the activation function value is calculated at every neuron. The difference between the output of the neural network and the desired output is what we called an error.<br />
The backpropagation mechanism is one of the most commonly used algorithms in solving neural network problems. By using this algorithm, we optimize the objective function by propagating back the generated error through the network to adjust the weights.<br />
In the next sections, we will use the above algorithm but with different network architectures and a different numbers of neurons to review the neural network-based cancer prediction models for learning the gene expression features.<br />
<br />
'''Cancer prediction models'''<br><br />
Cancer prediction models often contain more than 1 method to achieve high prediction accuracy with a more accurate prognosis and it also aims to reduce the cost of patients.<br />
<br />
High dimensionality and spatial structure are the two main factors that can affect the accuracy of the cancer prediction models. They add irrelevant noisy features to our selected models. We have 3 ways to determine the accuracy of a model.<br />
<br />
The first is called ROC curve. It reflects the sensitivity of the response to the same signal stimulus under different criteria. To test its validity, we need to consider it with the confidence interval. Usually, a model is a good one when its ROC is greater than 0.7. Another way to measure the performance of a model is to use CI, which explains the concordance probability of the predicted and observed survival. The closer its value to 0.7, the better the model is. The third measurement method is using the Brier score. A brier score measures the average difference between the observed and the estimated survival rate in a given period of time. It ranges from 0 to 1, and a lower score indicates higher accuracy.<br />
<br />
== Neural network-based cancer prediction models ==<br />
By performing an extensive search relevant to neural network-based cancer prediction using Google scholar and other electronic databases namely PubMed and Scopus with keywords such as “Neural Networks AND Cancer Prediction” and “gene expression clustering”, the chosen papers covered cancer classification, discovery, survivability prediction and the statistical analysis models. The following figure 1 shows a graph representing the number of citations including filtering, predictive and clustering for chosen papers. [[File:f1.png]]<br />
<br />
'''Datasets and preprocessing''' <br><br />
Most studies investigating automatic cancer prediction and clustering used datasets such as the TCGA, UCI, NCBI Gene Expression Omnibus and Kentridge biomedical databases. There are a few of techniques used in processing dataset including removing the genes that have zero expression across all samples, Normalization, filtering with p value > 10^-05 to remove some unwanted technical variation and log2 transformations. Statistical methods, neural network, were applied to reduce the dimensionality of the gene expressions by selecting a subset of genes. Principle Component Analysis (PCA) can also be used as an initial preprocessing step to extract the datasets features. The PCA method linearly transforms the dataset features into lower dimensional space without capturing the complex relationships between the features. However, simply removing the genes that were not measured by the other datasets could not overcame the class imbalance problem. In that case, one research used Synthetic Minority Class Over Sampling method to generate synthetic minority class samples, which may lead to sparse matrix problem. Clustering was also applied in some studies for labeling data by grouping the samples into high-risk, low-risk groups and so on. <br />
<br />
The following table presents the dataset used by considered reference, the applied normalization technique, the cancer type and the dimensionality of the datasets.<br />
[[File:Datasets and preprocessing.png]]<br />
<br />
'''Neural network architecture''' <br><br />
Most recent studies reveal that filtering, predicting methods and cluster methods are used in cancer prediction. For filtering, the resulted features are used with statistical methods or machine learning classification and cluster tools such as decision trees, K Nearest Neighbor and Self Organizing Maps(SOM) as figure 2 indicates.[[File:filtering gane.png]]<br />
<br />
All neural network’s neurons work as feature detectors that learn the input’s features. For our categorization into filtering, predicting and clustering methods was based on the overall rule that a neural network performs in the cancer prediction method. Filtering methods are trained to remove the input’s noise and to extract the most representative features that best describe the unlabeled gene expressions. Predicting methods are trained to extract the features that are significant to prediction, therefore its objective functions measure how accurately the network is able to predict the class of an input. Clustering methods are trained to divide unlabeled samples into groups based on their similarities.<br />
<br />
'''Building neural networks-based approaches for gene expression prediction''' <br><br />
According to our survey, the representative codes are generated by filtering methods with dimensionality M smaller or equal to N, where N is the dimensionality of the input. Some other machine learning algorithm such as naïve Bayes or k-means can be used together with the filtering.<br />
Predictive neural networks are supervised, which find the best classification accuracy; meanwhile, clustering methods are unsupervised, which group similar samples or genes together. <br />
The goal of training prediction is to enhance the classification capability, and the goal of training classification is to find the optimal group to a new test set with unknown labels.<br />
<br />
'''Neural network filters for cancer prediction''' <br><br />
In the preprocessing step to classification, clustering and statistical analysis, the autoencoders are more and more commonly-used, to extract generic genomic features. An autoencoder is composed of the encoder part and the decoder part. The encoder part is to learn the mapping between high-dimensional unlabeled input I(x) and the low-dimensional representations in the middle layer(s), and the decoder part is to learn the mapping from the middle layer’s representation to the high-dimensional output O(x). The reconstruction of the input can take the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) or the Logloss function as the objective function. <br />
<br />
$$ RMSE = \sqrt{ \frac{\sum{(I(x)-O(x))^2}}{n} } $$<br />
<br />
$$ Logloss = \sum{(I(x)log(O(x)) + (1 - I(x))log(1 - O(x)))} $$<br />
<br />
There are several types of autoencoders, such as stacked denoising autoencoders, contractive autoencoders, sparse autoencoders, regularized autoencoders and variational autoencoders. The architecture of the networks varies in many parameters, such as depth and loss function. Each example of an autoencoder mentioned above has different number of hidden layers, different activation functions (e.g. sigmoid function, exponential linear unit function), and different optimization algorithms (e.g. stochastic gradient decent optimization, Adam optimizer).<br />
<br />
The neural network filtering methods were used by different statistical methods and classifiers. The conventional methods include Cox regression model analysis, Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-means clustering, t-SNE and so on. The classifiers could be SVM or AdaBoost or others.<br />
<br />
By using neural network filtering methods, the model can be trained to learn low-dimensional representations, remove noises from the input, and gain better generalization performance by re-training the classifier with the newest output layer.<br />
<br />
'''Neural network prediction methods for cancer''' <br><br />
The prediction based on neural networks can build a network that maps the input features to an output with a number of neurons, which could be one or two for binary classification, or more for multi-class classification. It can also build several independent binary neural networks for the multi-class classification, where the technique called “one-hot encoding” is applied.<br />
<br />
The codeword is a binary string C’k of length k whose j’th position is set to 1 for the j’th class, while other positions remain 0. The process of the neural networks is to map the input to the codeword iteratively, whose objective function is minimized in each iteration.<br />
<br />
Such cancer classifiers were applied on identify cancerous/non-cancerous samples, a specific cancer type, or the survivability risk. MLP models were used to predict the survival risk of lung cancer patients with several gene expressions as input. The deep generative model DeepCancer, the RBM-SVM and RBM-logistic regression models, the convolutional feedforward model DeepGene, Extreme Learning Machines (ELM), the one-dimensional convolutional framework model SE1DCNN, and GA-ANN model are all used for solving cancer issues mentioned above. This paper indicates that the performance of neural networks with MLP architecture as classifier are better than those of SVM, logistic regression, naïve Bayes, classification trees and KNN.<br />
<br />
'''Neural network clustering methods in cancer prediction''' <br><br />
Neural network clustering belongs to unsupervised learning. The input data are divided into different groups according to their feature similarity.<br />
The single-layered neural network SOM, which is unsupervised and without backpropagation mechanism, is one of the traditional model-based techniques to be applied on gene expression data. The measurement of its accuracy could be Rand Index (RI), which can be improved to Adjusted Random Index (ARI) and Normalized Mutation Information (NMI).<br />
<br />
$$ RI=\frac{TP+TN}{TP+TN+FP+FN}$$<br />
<br />
In general, gene expression clustering considers either the relevance of samples-to-cluster assignment or that of gene-to-cluster assignment, or both. To solve the high dimensionality problem, there are two methods: clustering ensembles by running a single clustering algorithm for several times, each of which has different initialization or number of parameters; and projective clustering by only considering a subset of the original features.<br />
<br />
SOM was applied on discriminating future tumor behavior using molecular alterations, whose results were not easy to be obtained by classic statistical models. Then this paper introduces two ensemble clustering frameworks: Random Double Clustering-based Cluster Ensembles (RDCCE) and Random Double Clustering-based Fuzzy Cluster Ensembles (RDCFCE). Their accuracies are high, but they have not taken gene-to-cluster assignment into consideration.<br />
<br />
Also, the paper provides double SOM based Clustering Ensemble Approach (SOM2CE) and double NG-based Clustering Ensemble Approach (NG2CE), which are robust to noisy genes. Moreover, Projective Clustering Ensemble (PCE) combines the advantages of both projective clustering and ensemble clustering, which is better than SOM and RDCFCE when there are irrelevant genes.<br />
<br />
== Summary ==<br />
<br />
Cancer is a disease with a very high fatality rate that spreads worldwide, and it’s essential to analyze gene expression for discovering genes abnormalities and increasing survivability as a consequence. The previous analysis in the paper reveals that neural networks are essentially used for filtering the gene expressions, predicting their class, or clustering them.<br />
<br />
Neural network filtering methods are used to reduce dimensionality of the gene expressions and remove their noise. In the article, the authors recommended deep architectures more than shallow architecture for best practise as they combine many nonlinearities. <br />
<br />
Neural network prediction methods can be used for both binary and multi-class problems. In binary cases, the network architecture has only one or two output neurons which diagnose a given sample as cancerous or non-cancerous, while the number of the output neurons in multi-class problems is equal to the number of classes. The authors suggested that the deep architecture with convolution layers which was the most recently used model, proved efficient capability and in predicting cancer subtypes as it captures the spatial correlations between gene expressions.<br />
Clustering is another analysis tool that is used to divide the gene expressions into groups. The authors indicated that a hybrid approach combining both the ensembling clustering and projective clustering is more accurate than using single-point clustering algorithm such as SOM since those methods do not have the capability to distinguish the noisy genes.<br />
<br />
==Discussion==<br />
There are some technical problems that can be considered and improved for building new models. <br><br />
<br />
1. Overfitting: Since gene expression datasets are high dimensional and have a relatively small number of samples, it would be likely to properly fits the training data but not accurate for test samples due to the lack of generalization capability. The ways to avoid overfitting can be: (1). adding weight penalties using regularization; (2). using the average predictions from many models trained on different datasets; (3). dropout. (4) Augmentation of the dataset to produce more "observations".<br><br />
<br />
2. Model configuration and training: In order to reduce both the computational and memory expenses but also with high prediction accuracy, it’s crucial to properly set the network parameters. The possible ways can be: (1). proper initialization; (2). pruning the unimportant connections by removing the zero-valued neurons; (3). using ensemble learning framework by training different models using different parameter settings or using different parts of the dataset for each base model; (4). Using SMOTE for dealing with class imbalance on the high dimensional level. <br><br />
<br />
3. Model evaluation: Braga-Neto and Dougherty in their research revealed that cross-validation displayed excessive variance and therefore it is unreliable for small size data. The bootstrap method proved more accurate predictability.<br><br />
<br />
4. Study producibility: A study needs to be reproducible to enhance research reliability so that others can replicate the results using the same algorithms data and methodology.<br />
<br />
==Conclusion==<br />
This paper reviewed the most recent neural network-based cancer prediction models and gene expression analysis tools. The analysis indicates that the neural network methods are able to serve as filters, predictors, and clustering methods, and also showed that the role of the neural network determines its general architecture. To give suggestions for future neural network-based approaches, the authors highlighted some critical points that have to be considered such as overfitting and class imbalance, and suggest choosing different network parameters or combining two or more of the presented approaches. One of the biggest challenges for cancer prediction modelers is deciding on the network architecture (i.e. the number of hidden layers and neurons), as there are currently no guidelines to follow to obtain high prediction accuracy.<br />
<br />
==Critiques==<br />
<br />
While results indicate that the functionality of the neural network determines its general architecture, the decision on the number of hidden layers, neurons, hypermeters and learning algorithm is made using trial-and-error techniques. Therefore improvements in this area of the model might need to be explored in order to obtain better results and in order to make more convincing statements.<br />
<br />
==Reference==<br />
Daoud, M., & Mayo, M. (2019). A survey of neural network-based cancer prediction models from microarray data. Artificial Intelligence in Medicine, 97, 204–214.</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=Neural_ODEs&diff=45450Neural ODEs2020-11-21T01:08:17Z<p>B22chang: /* Scope and Limitations */</p>
<hr />
<div>== Introduction ==<br />
Chen et al. propose a new class of neural networks called neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs) in their 2018 paper under the same title. Neural network models, such as residual or recurrent networks, can be generalized as a set of transformations through hidden states (a.k.a layers) <math>\mathbf{h}</math>, given by the equation <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"><math> \mathbf{h}_{t+1} = \mathbf{h}_t + f(\mathbf{h}_t,\theta_t) </math> (1) </div><br />
<br />
where <math>t \in \{0,...,T\}</math> and <math>\theta_t</math> corresponds to the set of parameters or weights in state <math>t</math>. It is important to note that it has been shown (Lu et al., 2017)(Haber<br />
and Ruthotto, 2017)(Ruthotto and Haber, 2018) that Equation 1 can be viewed as an Euler discretization. Given this Euler description, if the number of layers and step size between layers are taken to their limits, then Equation 1 can instead be described continuously in the form of the ODE, <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"><math> \frac{d\mathbf{h}(t)}{dt} = f(\mathbf{h}(t),t,\theta) </math> (2). </div><br />
<br />
Equation 2 now describes a network where the output layer <math>\mathbf{h}(T)</math> is generated by solving for the ODE at time <math>T</math>, given the initial value at <math>t=0</math>, where <math>\mathbf{h}(0)</math> is the input layer of the network. <br />
<br />
With a vast amount of theory and research in the field of solving ODEs numerically, there are a number of benefits to formulating the hidden state dynamics this way. One major advantage is that a continuous description of the network allows for the calculation of <math>f</math> at arbitrary intervals and locations. The authors provide an example in section five of how the neural ODE network outperforms the discretized version i.e. residual networks, by taking advantage of the continuity of <math>f</math>. A depiction of this distinction is shown in the figure below. <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"> [[File:NeuralODEs_Fig1.png|350px]] </div><br />
<br />
In section four the authors show that the single-unit bottleneck of normalizing flows can be overcome by constructing a new class of density models that incorporates the neural ODE network formulation.<br />
The next section on automatic differentiation will describe how utilizing ODE solvers allows for the calculation of gradients of the loss function without storing any of the hidden state information. This results in a very low memory requirement for neural ODE networks in comparison to traditional networks that rely on intermediate hidden state quantities for backpropagation.<br />
<br />
== Reverse-mode Automatic Differentiation of ODE Solutions ==<br />
Like most neural networks, optimizing the weight parameters <math>\theta</math> for a neural ODE network involves finding the gradient of a loss function with respect to those parameters. Differentiating in the forward direction is a simple task, however, this method is very computationally expensive and unstable, as it introduces additional numerical error. Instead, the authors suggest that the gradients can be calculated in the reverse-mode with the adjoint sensitivity method (Pontryagin et al., 1962). This "backpropagation" method solves an augmented version of the forward ODE problem but in reverse, which is something that all ODE solvers are capable of. Section 3 provides results showing that this method gives very desirable memory costs and numerical stability. <br />
<br />
The authors provide an example of the adjoint method by considering the minimization of the scalar-valued loss function <math>L</math>, which takes the solution of the ODE solver as its argument.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;">[[File:NeuralODEs_Eq1.png|700px]],</div> <br />
This minimization problem requires the calculation of <math>\frac{\partial L}{\partial \mathbf{z}(t_0)}</math> and <math>\frac{\partial L}{\partial \theta}</math>.<br />
<br />
The adjoint itself is defined as <math>\mathbf{a}(t) = \frac{\partial L}{\partial \mathbf{z}(t)}</math>, which describes the gradient of the loss with respect to the hidden state <math>\mathbf{z}(t)</math>. By taking the first derivative of the adjoint, another ODE arises in the form of,<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"><math>\frac{d \mathbf{a}(t)}{dt} = -\mathbf{a}(t)^T \frac{\partial f(\mathbf{z}(t),t,\theta)}{\partial \mathbf{z}}</math> (3).</div> <br />
<br />
Since the value <math>\mathbf{a}(t_0)</math> is required to minimize the loss, the ODE in equation 3 must be solved backwards in time from <math>\mathbf{a}(t_1)</math>. Solving this problem is dependent on the knowledge of the hidden state <math>\mathbf{z}(t)</math> for all <math>t</math>, which an neural ODE does not save on the forward pass. Luckily, both <math>\mathbf{a}(t)</math> and <math>\mathbf{z}(t)</math> can be calculated in reverse, at the same time, by setting up an augmented version of the dynamics and is shown in the final algorithm. Finally, the derivative <math>dL/d\theta</math> can be expressed in terms of the adjoint and the hidden state as, <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"><math> \frac{dL}{d\theta} -\int_{t_1}^{t_0} \mathbf{a}(t)^T\frac{\partial f(\mathbf{z}(t),t,\theta)}{\partial \theta}dt</math> (4).</div><br />
<br />
To obtain very inexpensive calculations of <math>\frac{\partial f}{\partial z}</math> and <math>\frac{\partial f}{\partial \theta}</math> in equation 3 and 4, automatic differentiation can be utilized. The authors present an algorithm to calculate the gradients of <math>L</math> and their dependent quantities with only one call to an ODE solver and is shown below. <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;">[[File:NeuralODEs Algorithm1.png|850px]]</div><br />
<br />
If the loss function has a stronger dependence on the hidden states for <math>t \neq t_0,t_1</math>, then Algorithm 1 can be modified to handle multiple calls to the ODESolve step since most ODE solvers have the capability to provide <math>z(t)</math> at arbitrary times. A visual depiction of this scenario is shown below. <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;">[[File:NeuralODES Fig2.png|350px]]</div><br />
<br />
Please see the [https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.07366.pdf#page=13 appendix] for extended versions of Algorithm 1 and detailed derivations of each equation in this section.<br />
<br />
== Replacing Residual Networks with ODEs for Supervised Learning ==<br />
Section three of the paper investigates an application of the reverse-mode differentiation described in section two, for the training of neural ODE networks on the MNIST digit data set. To solve for the forward pass in the neural ODE network, the following experiment used the Adams method, which is an implicit ODE solver. Although it has a marked improvement over explicit ODE solvers in numerical accuracy, integrating backward through the network for backpropagation is still not preferred and the adjoint sensitivity method is used to perform efficient weight optimization. The network with this "backpropagation" technique is referred to as ODE-Net in this section. <br />
<br />
=== Implementation ===<br />
A residual network (ResNet), studied by He et al. (2016), with six standard residual blocks was used as a comparative model for this experiment. The competing model, ODE-net, replaces the residual blocks of the ResNet with the Adams solver. As a hybrid of the two models ResNet and ODE-net, a third network was created called RK-Net, which solves the weight optimization of the neural ODE network explicitly through backward Runge-Kutta integration. The following table shows the training and performance results of each network. <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;">[[File:NeuralODEs Table1.png|400px]]</div><br />
<br />
Note that <math>L</math> and <math>\tilde{L}</math> are the number of layers in ResNet and the number of function calls that the Adams method makes for the two ODE networks and are effectively analogous quantities. As shown in Table 1, both of the ODE networks achieve comparable performance to that of the ResNet with a notable decrease in memory cost for ODE-net.<br />
<br />
<br />
Another interesting component of ODE networks is the ability to control the tolerance in the ODE solver used and subsequently the numerical error in the solution. <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;">[[File:NeuralODEs Fig3.png|700px]]</div><br />
<br />
The tolerance of the ODE solver is represented by the colour bar in Figure 3 above and notice that a variety of effects arise from adjusting this parameter. Primarily, if one was to treat the tolerance as a hyperparameter of sorts, you could tune it such that you find a balance between accuracy (Figure 3a) and computational complexity (Figure 3b). Figure 3c also provides further evidence for the benefits of the adjoint method for the backward pass in ODE-nets since there is a nearly 1:0.5 ratio of forward to backward function calls. In the ResNet and RK-Net examples, this ratio is 1:1.<br />
<br />
Additionally, the authors loosely define the concept of depth in a neural ODE network by referring to Figure 3d. Here it's evident that as you continue to train ODE network, the number of function evaluations the ODE solver performs increases and as previously mentioned this quantity is comparable to the network depth of a discretized network. However, as the authors note, this result should be seen as the progression of the network's complexity over training epochs, which is something we expect to increase over time.<br />
<br />
== Continuous Normalizing Flows ==<br />
<br />
Section four tackles the implementation of continuous-depth Neural Networks, but to do so, in the first part of section four the authors discuss theoretically how to establish this kind of network through the use of normalizing flows. The authors use a change of variables method presented in other works (Rezende and Mohamed, 2015), (Dinh et al., 2014), to compute the change of a probability distribution if sample points are transformed through a bijective function, <math>f</math>.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"><math>z_1=f(z_0) \Rightarrow log(p(z_1))=log(p(z_0))-log|det\frac{\partial f}{\partial z_0}|</math></div><br />
<br />
Where p(z) is the probability distribution of the samples and <math>det\frac{\partial f}{\partial z_0}</math> is the determinant of the Jacobian which has a cubic cost in the dimension of '''z''' or the number of hidden units in the network. The authors discovered however that transforming the discrete set of hidden layers in the normalizing flow network to continuous transformations simplifies the computations significantly, due primarily to the following theorem:<br />
<br />
'''''Theorem 1:''' (Instantaneous Change of Variables). Let z(t) be a finite continuous random variable with probability p(z(t)) dependent on time. Let dz/dt=f(z(t),t) be a differential equation describing a continuous-in-time transformation of z(t). Assuming that f is uniformly Lipschitz continuous in z and continuous in t, then the change in log probability also follows a differential equation:''<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"><math>\frac{\partial log(p(z(t)))}{\partial t}=-tr\left(\frac{df}{dz(t)}\right)</math></div><br />
<br />
The biggest advantage to using this theorem is that the trace function is a linear function, so if the dynamics of the problem, f, is represented by a sum of functions, then so is the log density. This essentially means that you can now compute flow models with only a linear cost with respect to the number of hidden units, <math>M</math>. In standard normalizing flow models, the cost is <math>O(M^3)</math>, so they will generally fit many layers with a single hidden unit in each layer.<br />
<br />
Finally the authors use these realizations to construct Continuous Normalizing Flow networks (CNFs) by specifying the parameters of the flow as a function of ''t'', ie, <math>f(z(t),t)</math>. They also use a gating mechanism for each hidden unit, <math>\frac{dz}{dt}=\sum_n \sigma_n(t)f_n(z)</math> where <math>\sigma_n(t)\in (0,1)</math> is a separate neural network which learns when to apply each dynamic <math>f_n</math>.<br />
<br />
===Implementation===<br />
<br />
The authors construct two separate types of neural networks to compare against each other, the first is the standard planar Normalizing Flow network (NF) using 64 layers of single hidden units, and the second is their new CNF with 64 hidden units. The NF model is trained over 500,000 iterations using RMSprop, and the CNF network is trained over 10,000 iterations using Adam. The loss function is <math>KL(q(x)||p(x))</math> where <math>q(x)</math> is the flow model and <math>p(x)</math> is the target probability density.<br />
<br />
One of the biggest advantages when implementing CNF is that you can train the flow parameters just by performing maximum likelihood estimation on <math>log(q(x))</math> given <math>p(x)</math>, where <math>q(x)</math> is found via the theorem above, and then reversing the CNF to generate random samples from <math>q(x)</math>. This reversal of the CNF is done with about the same cost of the forward pass which is not able to be done in an NF network. The following two figures demonstrate the ability of CNF to generate more expressive and accurate output data as compared to standard NF networks.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"><br />
[[Image:CNFcomparisons.png]]<br />
<br />
[[Image:CNFtransitions.png]]<br />
</div><br />
<br />
Figure 4 shows clearly that the CNF structure exhibits significantly lower loss functions than NF. In figure 5 both networks were tasked with transforming a standard Gaussian distribution into a target distribution, not only was the CNF network more accurate on the two moons target, but also the steps it took along the way are much more intuitive than the output from NF.<br />
<br />
== A Generative Latent Function Time-Series Model ==<br />
<br />
One of the largest issues at play in terms of Neural ODE networks is the fact that in many instances, data points are either very sparsely distributed, or irregularly-sampled. The latent dynamics are discretized and the observations are in the bins of fixed duration. An example of this is medical records which are only updated when a patient visits a doctor or the hospital. To solve this issue the authors had to create a generative time-series model which would be able to fill in the gaps of missing data. The authors consider each time series as a latent trajectory stemming from the initial local state <math>z_{t_0 }</math> and determined from a global set of latent parameters. Given a set of observation times and initial state, the generative model constructs points via the following sample procedure:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"><br />
<math><br />
z_{t_0}∼p(z_{t_0}) <br />
</math><br />
</div> <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"><br />
<math><br />
z_{t_1},z_{t_2},\dots,z_{t_N}=ODESolve(z_{t_0},f,θ_f,t_0,...,t_N)<br />
</math><br />
</div><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"><br />
each <br />
<math><br />
x_{t_i}∼p(x│z_{t_i},θ_x)<br />
</math><br />
</div><br />
<br />
<math>f</math> is a function which outputs the gradient <math>\frac{\partial z(t)}{\partial t}=f(z(t),θ_f)</math> which is parameterized via a neural net. In order to train this latent variable model, the authors had to first encode their given data and observation times using an RNN encoder, construct the new points using the trained parameters, then decode the points back into the original space. The following figure describes this process:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"><br />
[[Image:EncodingFigure.png]]<br />
</div><br />
<br />
Another variable which could affect the latent state of a time-series model is how often an event actually occurs. The authors solved this by parameterizing the rate of events in terms of a Poisson process. They described the set of independent observation times in an interval <math>\left[t_{start},t_{end}\right]</math> as:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"> <br />
<math><br />
log(p(t_1,t_2,\dots,t_N ))=\sum_{i=1}^Nlog(\lambda(z(t_i)))-\int_{t_{start}}^{t_{end}}λ(z(t))dt<br />
</math><br />
</div><br />
<br />
where <math>\lambda(*)</math> is parameterized via another neural network.<br />
<br />
===Implementation===<br />
<br />
To test the effectiveness of the Latent time-series ODE model (LODE), they fit the encoder with 25 hidden units, parametrize function f with a one-layer 20 hidden unit network, and the decoder as another neural network with 20 hidden units. They compare this against a standard recurrent neural net (RNN) with 25 hidden units trained to minimize gaussian log-likelihood. The authors tested both of these network systems on a dataset of 2-dimensional spirals which either rotated clockwise or counter-clockwise and sampled the positions of each spiral at 100 equally spaced time steps. They can then simulate irregularly timed data by taking random amounts of points without replacement from each spiral. The next two figures show the outcome of these experiments:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"><br />
[[Image:LODEtestresults.png]] [[Image:SpiralFigure.png|The blue lines represent the test data learned curves and the red lines represent the extrapolated curves predicted by each model]]<br />
</div><br />
<br />
In the figure on the right the blue lines represent the test data learned curves and the red lines represent the extrapolated curves predicted by each model. It is noted that the LODE performs significantly better than the standard RNN model, especially on smaller sets of data points.<br />
<br />
== Scope and Limitations ==<br />
<br />
Section 6 mainly discusses the scope and limitations of the paper. Firstly while “batching” the training data is a useful step in standard neural nets, and can still be applied here by combining the ODEs associated with each batch, the authors found that controlling the error, in this case, may increase the number of calculations required. In practice, however, the number of calculations did not increase significantly.<br />
<br />
So long as the model proposed in this paper uses finite weights and Lipschitz nonlinearities, then Picard’s existence theorem (Coddington and Levinson, 1955) applies, guaranteeing the solution to the IVP exists and is unique. This theorem holds for the model presented above when the network has finite weights and uses nonlinearities in the Lipshitz class. <br />
<br />
In controlling the amount of error in the model, the authors were only able to reduce tolerances to approximately <math>1e-3</math> and <math>1e-5</math> in classification and density estimation respectively without also degrading the computational performance.<br />
<br />
The authors believe that reconstructing state trajectories by running the dynamics backward can introduce extra numerical error. They address a possible solution to this problem by checkpointing certain time steps and storing intermediate values of z on the forward pass. Then while reconstructing, you do each part individually between checkpoints. The authors acknowledged that they informally checked the validity of this method since they don’t consider it a practical problem.<br />
<br />
There remain, however, areas where standard neural networks may perform better than Neural ODEs. Firstly, conventional nets can fit non-homeomorphic functions, for example, functions whose output has a smaller dimension that their input, or that change the topology of the input space. However, this could be handled by composing ODE nets with standard network layers. Another point is that conventional nets can be evaluated exactly with a fixed amount of computation, and are typically faster to train and do not require an error tolerance for a solver.<br />
<br />
== Conclusions and Critiques ==<br />
<br />
We covered the use of black-box ODE solvers as a model component and their application to initial value problems constructed from real applications. Neural ODE Networks show promising gains in computational cost without large sacrifices in accuracy when applied to certain problems. A drawback of some of these implementations is that the ODE Neural Networks are limited by the underlying distributions of the problems they are trying to solve (requirement of Lipschitz continuity, etc.). There are plenty of further advances to be made in this field as hundreds of years of ODE theory and literature is available, so this is currently an important area of research.<br />
<br />
<br />
== More Critiques ==<br />
<br />
This paper covers the memory efficiency of Neural ODE Networks, but does not address runtime. In practice, most systems are bound by latency requirements more-so than memory requirements (except in edge device cases). Though it may be unreasonable to expect the authors to produce a performance-optimized implementation, it would be insightful to understand the computational bottlenecks so existing frameworks can take steps to address them. This model looks promising and practical performance is the key to enabling future research in this.<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
Yiping Lu, Aoxiao Zhong, Quanzheng Li, and Bin Dong. Beyond finite layer neural networks: Bridging deep architectures and numerical differential equations. ''arXiv preprint arXiv'':1710.10121, 2017.<br />
<br />
Eldad Haber and Lars Ruthotto. Stable architectures for deep neural networks. ''Inverse Problems'', 34 (1):014004, 2017.<br />
<br />
Lars Ruthotto and Eldad Haber. Deep neural networks motivated by partial differential equations. ''arXiv preprint arXiv'':1804.04272, 2018.<br />
<br />
Lev Semenovich Pontryagin, EF Mishchenko, VG Boltyanskii, and RV Gamkrelidze. ''The mathematical theory of optimal processes''. 1962.<br />
<br />
Kaiming He, Xiangyu Zhang, Shaoqing Ren, and Jian Sun. Identity mappings in deep residual networks. In ''European conference on computer vision'', pages 630–645. Springer, 2016b.<br />
<br />
Earl A Coddington and Norman Levinson. ''Theory of ordinary differential equations''. Tata McGrawHill Education, 1955.<br />
<br />
Danilo Jimenez Rezende and Shakir Mohamed. Variational inference with normalizing flows. ''arXiv preprint arXiv:1505.05770'', 2015.<br />
<br />
Laurent Dinh, David Krueger, and Yoshua Bengio. NICE: Non-linear independent components estimation. ''arXiv preprint arXiv:1410.8516'', 2014.</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=Neural_ODEs&diff=45449Neural ODEs2020-11-21T01:08:04Z<p>B22chang: /* A Generative Latent Function Time-Series Model */</p>
<hr />
<div>== Introduction ==<br />
Chen et al. propose a new class of neural networks called neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs) in their 2018 paper under the same title. Neural network models, such as residual or recurrent networks, can be generalized as a set of transformations through hidden states (a.k.a layers) <math>\mathbf{h}</math>, given by the equation <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"><math> \mathbf{h}_{t+1} = \mathbf{h}_t + f(\mathbf{h}_t,\theta_t) </math> (1) </div><br />
<br />
where <math>t \in \{0,...,T\}</math> and <math>\theta_t</math> corresponds to the set of parameters or weights in state <math>t</math>. It is important to note that it has been shown (Lu et al., 2017)(Haber<br />
and Ruthotto, 2017)(Ruthotto and Haber, 2018) that Equation 1 can be viewed as an Euler discretization. Given this Euler description, if the number of layers and step size between layers are taken to their limits, then Equation 1 can instead be described continuously in the form of the ODE, <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"><math> \frac{d\mathbf{h}(t)}{dt} = f(\mathbf{h}(t),t,\theta) </math> (2). </div><br />
<br />
Equation 2 now describes a network where the output layer <math>\mathbf{h}(T)</math> is generated by solving for the ODE at time <math>T</math>, given the initial value at <math>t=0</math>, where <math>\mathbf{h}(0)</math> is the input layer of the network. <br />
<br />
With a vast amount of theory and research in the field of solving ODEs numerically, there are a number of benefits to formulating the hidden state dynamics this way. One major advantage is that a continuous description of the network allows for the calculation of <math>f</math> at arbitrary intervals and locations. The authors provide an example in section five of how the neural ODE network outperforms the discretized version i.e. residual networks, by taking advantage of the continuity of <math>f</math>. A depiction of this distinction is shown in the figure below. <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"> [[File:NeuralODEs_Fig1.png|350px]] </div><br />
<br />
In section four the authors show that the single-unit bottleneck of normalizing flows can be overcome by constructing a new class of density models that incorporates the neural ODE network formulation.<br />
The next section on automatic differentiation will describe how utilizing ODE solvers allows for the calculation of gradients of the loss function without storing any of the hidden state information. This results in a very low memory requirement for neural ODE networks in comparison to traditional networks that rely on intermediate hidden state quantities for backpropagation.<br />
<br />
== Reverse-mode Automatic Differentiation of ODE Solutions ==<br />
Like most neural networks, optimizing the weight parameters <math>\theta</math> for a neural ODE network involves finding the gradient of a loss function with respect to those parameters. Differentiating in the forward direction is a simple task, however, this method is very computationally expensive and unstable, as it introduces additional numerical error. Instead, the authors suggest that the gradients can be calculated in the reverse-mode with the adjoint sensitivity method (Pontryagin et al., 1962). This "backpropagation" method solves an augmented version of the forward ODE problem but in reverse, which is something that all ODE solvers are capable of. Section 3 provides results showing that this method gives very desirable memory costs and numerical stability. <br />
<br />
The authors provide an example of the adjoint method by considering the minimization of the scalar-valued loss function <math>L</math>, which takes the solution of the ODE solver as its argument.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;">[[File:NeuralODEs_Eq1.png|700px]],</div> <br />
This minimization problem requires the calculation of <math>\frac{\partial L}{\partial \mathbf{z}(t_0)}</math> and <math>\frac{\partial L}{\partial \theta}</math>.<br />
<br />
The adjoint itself is defined as <math>\mathbf{a}(t) = \frac{\partial L}{\partial \mathbf{z}(t)}</math>, which describes the gradient of the loss with respect to the hidden state <math>\mathbf{z}(t)</math>. By taking the first derivative of the adjoint, another ODE arises in the form of,<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"><math>\frac{d \mathbf{a}(t)}{dt} = -\mathbf{a}(t)^T \frac{\partial f(\mathbf{z}(t),t,\theta)}{\partial \mathbf{z}}</math> (3).</div> <br />
<br />
Since the value <math>\mathbf{a}(t_0)</math> is required to minimize the loss, the ODE in equation 3 must be solved backwards in time from <math>\mathbf{a}(t_1)</math>. Solving this problem is dependent on the knowledge of the hidden state <math>\mathbf{z}(t)</math> for all <math>t</math>, which an neural ODE does not save on the forward pass. Luckily, both <math>\mathbf{a}(t)</math> and <math>\mathbf{z}(t)</math> can be calculated in reverse, at the same time, by setting up an augmented version of the dynamics and is shown in the final algorithm. Finally, the derivative <math>dL/d\theta</math> can be expressed in terms of the adjoint and the hidden state as, <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"><math> \frac{dL}{d\theta} -\int_{t_1}^{t_0} \mathbf{a}(t)^T\frac{\partial f(\mathbf{z}(t),t,\theta)}{\partial \theta}dt</math> (4).</div><br />
<br />
To obtain very inexpensive calculations of <math>\frac{\partial f}{\partial z}</math> and <math>\frac{\partial f}{\partial \theta}</math> in equation 3 and 4, automatic differentiation can be utilized. The authors present an algorithm to calculate the gradients of <math>L</math> and their dependent quantities with only one call to an ODE solver and is shown below. <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;">[[File:NeuralODEs Algorithm1.png|850px]]</div><br />
<br />
If the loss function has a stronger dependence on the hidden states for <math>t \neq t_0,t_1</math>, then Algorithm 1 can be modified to handle multiple calls to the ODESolve step since most ODE solvers have the capability to provide <math>z(t)</math> at arbitrary times. A visual depiction of this scenario is shown below. <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;">[[File:NeuralODES Fig2.png|350px]]</div><br />
<br />
Please see the [https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.07366.pdf#page=13 appendix] for extended versions of Algorithm 1 and detailed derivations of each equation in this section.<br />
<br />
== Replacing Residual Networks with ODEs for Supervised Learning ==<br />
Section three of the paper investigates an application of the reverse-mode differentiation described in section two, for the training of neural ODE networks on the MNIST digit data set. To solve for the forward pass in the neural ODE network, the following experiment used the Adams method, which is an implicit ODE solver. Although it has a marked improvement over explicit ODE solvers in numerical accuracy, integrating backward through the network for backpropagation is still not preferred and the adjoint sensitivity method is used to perform efficient weight optimization. The network with this "backpropagation" technique is referred to as ODE-Net in this section. <br />
<br />
=== Implementation ===<br />
A residual network (ResNet), studied by He et al. (2016), with six standard residual blocks was used as a comparative model for this experiment. The competing model, ODE-net, replaces the residual blocks of the ResNet with the Adams solver. As a hybrid of the two models ResNet and ODE-net, a third network was created called RK-Net, which solves the weight optimization of the neural ODE network explicitly through backward Runge-Kutta integration. The following table shows the training and performance results of each network. <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;">[[File:NeuralODEs Table1.png|400px]]</div><br />
<br />
Note that <math>L</math> and <math>\tilde{L}</math> are the number of layers in ResNet and the number of function calls that the Adams method makes for the two ODE networks and are effectively analogous quantities. As shown in Table 1, both of the ODE networks achieve comparable performance to that of the ResNet with a notable decrease in memory cost for ODE-net.<br />
<br />
<br />
Another interesting component of ODE networks is the ability to control the tolerance in the ODE solver used and subsequently the numerical error in the solution. <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;">[[File:NeuralODEs Fig3.png|700px]]</div><br />
<br />
The tolerance of the ODE solver is represented by the colour bar in Figure 3 above and notice that a variety of effects arise from adjusting this parameter. Primarily, if one was to treat the tolerance as a hyperparameter of sorts, you could tune it such that you find a balance between accuracy (Figure 3a) and computational complexity (Figure 3b). Figure 3c also provides further evidence for the benefits of the adjoint method for the backward pass in ODE-nets since there is a nearly 1:0.5 ratio of forward to backward function calls. In the ResNet and RK-Net examples, this ratio is 1:1.<br />
<br />
Additionally, the authors loosely define the concept of depth in a neural ODE network by referring to Figure 3d. Here it's evident that as you continue to train ODE network, the number of function evaluations the ODE solver performs increases and as previously mentioned this quantity is comparable to the network depth of a discretized network. However, as the authors note, this result should be seen as the progression of the network's complexity over training epochs, which is something we expect to increase over time.<br />
<br />
== Continuous Normalizing Flows ==<br />
<br />
Section four tackles the implementation of continuous-depth Neural Networks, but to do so, in the first part of section four the authors discuss theoretically how to establish this kind of network through the use of normalizing flows. The authors use a change of variables method presented in other works (Rezende and Mohamed, 2015), (Dinh et al., 2014), to compute the change of a probability distribution if sample points are transformed through a bijective function, <math>f</math>.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"><math>z_1=f(z_0) \Rightarrow log(p(z_1))=log(p(z_0))-log|det\frac{\partial f}{\partial z_0}|</math></div><br />
<br />
Where p(z) is the probability distribution of the samples and <math>det\frac{\partial f}{\partial z_0}</math> is the determinant of the Jacobian which has a cubic cost in the dimension of '''z''' or the number of hidden units in the network. The authors discovered however that transforming the discrete set of hidden layers in the normalizing flow network to continuous transformations simplifies the computations significantly, due primarily to the following theorem:<br />
<br />
'''''Theorem 1:''' (Instantaneous Change of Variables). Let z(t) be a finite continuous random variable with probability p(z(t)) dependent on time. Let dz/dt=f(z(t),t) be a differential equation describing a continuous-in-time transformation of z(t). Assuming that f is uniformly Lipschitz continuous in z and continuous in t, then the change in log probability also follows a differential equation:''<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"><math>\frac{\partial log(p(z(t)))}{\partial t}=-tr\left(\frac{df}{dz(t)}\right)</math></div><br />
<br />
The biggest advantage to using this theorem is that the trace function is a linear function, so if the dynamics of the problem, f, is represented by a sum of functions, then so is the log density. This essentially means that you can now compute flow models with only a linear cost with respect to the number of hidden units, <math>M</math>. In standard normalizing flow models, the cost is <math>O(M^3)</math>, so they will generally fit many layers with a single hidden unit in each layer.<br />
<br />
Finally the authors use these realizations to construct Continuous Normalizing Flow networks (CNFs) by specifying the parameters of the flow as a function of ''t'', ie, <math>f(z(t),t)</math>. They also use a gating mechanism for each hidden unit, <math>\frac{dz}{dt}=\sum_n \sigma_n(t)f_n(z)</math> where <math>\sigma_n(t)\in (0,1)</math> is a separate neural network which learns when to apply each dynamic <math>f_n</math>.<br />
<br />
===Implementation===<br />
<br />
The authors construct two separate types of neural networks to compare against each other, the first is the standard planar Normalizing Flow network (NF) using 64 layers of single hidden units, and the second is their new CNF with 64 hidden units. The NF model is trained over 500,000 iterations using RMSprop, and the CNF network is trained over 10,000 iterations using Adam. The loss function is <math>KL(q(x)||p(x))</math> where <math>q(x)</math> is the flow model and <math>p(x)</math> is the target probability density.<br />
<br />
One of the biggest advantages when implementing CNF is that you can train the flow parameters just by performing maximum likelihood estimation on <math>log(q(x))</math> given <math>p(x)</math>, where <math>q(x)</math> is found via the theorem above, and then reversing the CNF to generate random samples from <math>q(x)</math>. This reversal of the CNF is done with about the same cost of the forward pass which is not able to be done in an NF network. The following two figures demonstrate the ability of CNF to generate more expressive and accurate output data as compared to standard NF networks.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"><br />
[[Image:CNFcomparisons.png]]<br />
<br />
[[Image:CNFtransitions.png]]<br />
</div><br />
<br />
Figure 4 shows clearly that the CNF structure exhibits significantly lower loss functions than NF. In figure 5 both networks were tasked with transforming a standard Gaussian distribution into a target distribution, not only was the CNF network more accurate on the two moons target, but also the steps it took along the way are much more intuitive than the output from NF.<br />
<br />
== A Generative Latent Function Time-Series Model ==<br />
<br />
One of the largest issues at play in terms of Neural ODE networks is the fact that in many instances, data points are either very sparsely distributed, or irregularly-sampled. The latent dynamics are discretized and the observations are in the bins of fixed duration. An example of this is medical records which are only updated when a patient visits a doctor or the hospital. To solve this issue the authors had to create a generative time-series model which would be able to fill in the gaps of missing data. The authors consider each time series as a latent trajectory stemming from the initial local state <math>z_{t_0 }</math> and determined from a global set of latent parameters. Given a set of observation times and initial state, the generative model constructs points via the following sample procedure:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"><br />
<math><br />
z_{t_0}∼p(z_{t_0}) <br />
</math><br />
</div> <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"><br />
<math><br />
z_{t_1},z_{t_2},\dots,z_{t_N}=ODESolve(z_{t_0},f,θ_f,t_0,...,t_N)<br />
</math><br />
</div><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"><br />
each <br />
<math><br />
x_{t_i}∼p(x│z_{t_i},θ_x)<br />
</math><br />
</div><br />
<br />
<math>f</math> is a function which outputs the gradient <math>\frac{\partial z(t)}{\partial t}=f(z(t),θ_f)</math> which is parameterized via a neural net. In order to train this latent variable model, the authors had to first encode their given data and observation times using an RNN encoder, construct the new points using the trained parameters, then decode the points back into the original space. The following figure describes this process:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"><br />
[[Image:EncodingFigure.png]]<br />
</div><br />
<br />
Another variable which could affect the latent state of a time-series model is how often an event actually occurs. The authors solved this by parameterizing the rate of events in terms of a Poisson process. They described the set of independent observation times in an interval <math>\left[t_{start},t_{end}\right]</math> as:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"> <br />
<math><br />
log(p(t_1,t_2,\dots,t_N ))=\sum_{i=1}^Nlog(\lambda(z(t_i)))-\int_{t_{start}}^{t_{end}}λ(z(t))dt<br />
</math><br />
</div><br />
<br />
where <math>\lambda(*)</math> is parameterized via another neural network.<br />
<br />
===Implementation===<br />
<br />
To test the effectiveness of the Latent time-series ODE model (LODE), they fit the encoder with 25 hidden units, parametrize function f with a one-layer 20 hidden unit network, and the decoder as another neural network with 20 hidden units. They compare this against a standard recurrent neural net (RNN) with 25 hidden units trained to minimize gaussian log-likelihood. The authors tested both of these network systems on a dataset of 2-dimensional spirals which either rotated clockwise or counter-clockwise and sampled the positions of each spiral at 100 equally spaced time steps. They can then simulate irregularly timed data by taking random amounts of points without replacement from each spiral. The next two figures show the outcome of these experiments:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"><br />
[[Image:LODEtestresults.png]] [[Image:SpiralFigure.png|The blue lines represent the test data learned curves and the red lines represent the extrapolated curves predicted by each model]]<br />
</div><br />
<br />
In the figure on the right the blue lines represent the test data learned curves and the red lines represent the extrapolated curves predicted by each model. It is noted that the LODE performs significantly better than the standard RNN model, especially on smaller sets of data points.<br />
<br />
== Scope and Limitations ==<br />
<br />
Section 6 mainly discusses the scope and limitations of the paper. Firstly while “batching” the training data is a useful step in standard neural nets, and can still be applied here by combining the ODEs associated with each batch, the authors found that controlling the error in this case may increase the number of calculations required. In practice, however, the number of calculations did not increase significantly.<br />
<br />
So long as the model proposed in this paper uses finite weights and Lipschitz nonlinearities, then Picard’s existence theorem (Coddington and Levinson, 1955) applies, guaranteeing the solution to the IVP exists and is unique. This theorem holds for the model presented above when the network has finite weights and uses nonlinearities in the Lipshitz class. <br />
<br />
In controlling the amount of error in the model, the authors were only able to reduce tolerances to approximately <math>1e-3</math> and <math>1e-5</math> in classification and density estimation respectively without also degrading the computational performance.<br />
<br />
The authors believe that reconstructing state trajectories by running the dynamics backward can introduce extra numerical error. They address a possible solution to this problem by checkpointing certain time steps and storing intermediate values of z on the forward pass. Then while reconstructing, you do each part individually between checkpoints. The authors acknowledged that they informally checked the validity of this method since they don’t consider it a practical problem.<br />
<br />
There remain, however, areas where standard neural networks may perform better than Neural ODEs. Firstly, conventional nets can fit non-homeomorphic functions, for example, functions whose output has a smaller dimension that their input, or that change the topology of the input space. However, this could be handled by composing ODE nets with standard network layers. Another point is that conventional nets can be evaluated exactly with a fixed amount of computation, and are typically faster to train and do not require an error tolerance for a solver.<br />
<br />
== Conclusions and Critiques ==<br />
<br />
We covered the use of black-box ODE solvers as a model component and their application to initial value problems constructed from real applications. Neural ODE Networks show promising gains in computational cost without large sacrifices in accuracy when applied to certain problems. A drawback of some of these implementations is that the ODE Neural Networks are limited by the underlying distributions of the problems they are trying to solve (requirement of Lipschitz continuity, etc.). There are plenty of further advances to be made in this field as hundreds of years of ODE theory and literature is available, so this is currently an important area of research.<br />
<br />
<br />
== More Critiques ==<br />
<br />
This paper covers the memory efficiency of Neural ODE Networks, but does not address runtime. In practice, most systems are bound by latency requirements more-so than memory requirements (except in edge device cases). Though it may be unreasonable to expect the authors to produce a performance-optimized implementation, it would be insightful to understand the computational bottlenecks so existing frameworks can take steps to address them. This model looks promising and practical performance is the key to enabling future research in this.<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
Yiping Lu, Aoxiao Zhong, Quanzheng Li, and Bin Dong. Beyond finite layer neural networks: Bridging deep architectures and numerical differential equations. ''arXiv preprint arXiv'':1710.10121, 2017.<br />
<br />
Eldad Haber and Lars Ruthotto. Stable architectures for deep neural networks. ''Inverse Problems'', 34 (1):014004, 2017.<br />
<br />
Lars Ruthotto and Eldad Haber. Deep neural networks motivated by partial differential equations. ''arXiv preprint arXiv'':1804.04272, 2018.<br />
<br />
Lev Semenovich Pontryagin, EF Mishchenko, VG Boltyanskii, and RV Gamkrelidze. ''The mathematical theory of optimal processes''. 1962.<br />
<br />
Kaiming He, Xiangyu Zhang, Shaoqing Ren, and Jian Sun. Identity mappings in deep residual networks. In ''European conference on computer vision'', pages 630–645. Springer, 2016b.<br />
<br />
Earl A Coddington and Norman Levinson. ''Theory of ordinary differential equations''. Tata McGrawHill Education, 1955.<br />
<br />
Danilo Jimenez Rezende and Shakir Mohamed. Variational inference with normalizing flows. ''arXiv preprint arXiv:1505.05770'', 2015.<br />
<br />
Laurent Dinh, David Krueger, and Yoshua Bengio. NICE: Non-linear independent components estimation. ''arXiv preprint arXiv:1410.8516'', 2014.</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=IPBoost&diff=45448IPBoost2020-11-21T00:50:07Z<p>B22chang: /* Conclusion */</p>
<hr />
<div>== Presented by == <br />
Casey De Vera, Solaiman Jawad<br />
<br />
== Introduction == <br />
Boosting is an important and, by now, a fairly standard technique in classification to combine several “low accuracy” learners, so-called base learners, into a “high accuracy” learner, a so-called boosted learner. Pioneered by the AdaBoost approach of Freund & Schapire, in recent decades there has been extensive work on boosting procedures and analyses of their limitations.<br />
<br />
In a nutshell, boosting procedures are (typically) iterative schemes that roughly work as follows:<br />
<br />
for <math> t= 1, \cdots, T </math> do the following:<br />
<br />
# Push weight of the data distribution <math> \mathcal D_t</math> towards misclassified examples leading to <math> \mathcal D_{t+1}</math><br />
<br />
# Evaluate performance of <math> \mu_t</math> by computing its loss.<br />
<br />
# Train a learner <math> \mu_t</math> from a given class of base learners on the data distribution <math> \mathcal D_t</math><br />
<br />
Finally, the learners are combined with some form of voting (e.g., soft or hard voting, averaging, thresholding).<br />
<br />
<br />
[[File:boosting.gif|200px|thumb|right]] A close inspection of most boosting procedures reveals that they solve an underlying convex optimization problem over a convex loss function by means of coordinate gradient descent. Boosting schemes of this type are often referred to as '''convex potential boosters'''. These procedures can achieve exceptional performance on many data sets if the data is correctly labeled. However, they can be defeated easily by a small amount of label noise and cannot be fixed easily. The reason being we will zoom in to check the misclassified examples and trying to solve them by moving the weights around which will result in a bad performance on unseen data. In fact, in theory, provided the class of base learners is rich enough, a perfect strong learner can be constructed that has accuracy 1, however, clearly, such a learner might not necessarily generalize well. Boosted learners can generate quite some complicated decision boundaries, much more complicated than that of the base learners. Here is an example from Paul van der Laken’s blog / Extreme gradient boosting gif by Ryan Holbrook. Here data is generated online according to some process with optimal decision boundary represented by the dotted line and XGBoost was used to learn a classifier:<br />
<br />
<br />
Recently non-convex optimization approaches for solving machine learning problems have gained significant attention. In this paper, we explore non-convex boosting in classification by means of integer programming and demonstrate real-world practicability of the approach while circumventing shortcomings of convex boosting approaches. The paper reports results that are comparable to or better than current state-of-the-art approaches.<br />
<br />
== Motivation ==<br />
<br />
In reality, we usually face unclean data and so-called label noise, where some percentage of the classification labels might be corrupted. We would also like to construct strong learners for such data. Noisy labels are an issue because when a model is trained with excessive amounts of noisy labels, the performance and accuracy deteriorates greatly. However, if we revisit the general boosting template from above, then we might suspect that we run into trouble as soon as a certain fraction of training examples is misclassified: in this case, these examples cannot be correctly classified and the procedure shifts more and more weight towards these bad examples. This eventually leads to a strong learner, that perfectly predicts the (flawed) training data, however that does not generalize well anymore. This intuition has been formalized by [LS] who construct a “hard” training data distribution, where a small percentage of labels is randomly flipped. This label noise then leads to a significant reduction in performance of these boosted learners; see tables below. The more technical reason for this problem is actually the convexity of the loss function that is minimized by the boosting procedure. Clearly, one can use all types of “tricks” such as early stopping but at the end of the day, this is not solving the fundamental problem.<br />
<br />
== IPBoost: Boosting via Integer Programming ==<br />
<br />
<br />
===Integer Program Formulation===<br />
Let <math>(x_1,y_1),\cdots, (x_N,y_N) </math> be the training set with points <math>x_i \in \mathbb{R}^d</math> and two-class labels <math>y_i \in \{\pm 1\}</math> <br />
* class of base learners: <math> \Omega :=\{h_1, \cdots, h_L: \mathbb{R}^d \rightarrow \{\pm 1\}\} </math> and <math>\rho \ge 0</math> be given. <br />
* error function <math> \eta </math><br />
Our boosting model is captured by the integer programming problem. We can call this our primal problem: <br />
<br />
$$ \begin{align*} \min &\sum_{i=1}^N z_i \\ s.t. &\sum_{j=1}^L \eta_{ij}\lambda_k+(1+\rho)z_i \ge \rho \ \ \ <br />
\forall i=1,\cdots, N \\ <br />
&\sum_{j=1}^L \lambda_j=1, \lambda \ge 0,\\ &z\in \{0,1\}^N. \end{align*}$$<br />
<br />
===Solution of the IP using Column Generation===<br />
<br />
The goal of column generation is to provide an efficient way to solve the linear programming relaxation of the primal by allowing the <math>z_i </math> variables to assume fractional values. Moreover, columns, i.e., the base learners, <math> \mathcal L \subseteq [L]. </math> are left out because there are too many to handle efficiently and most of them will have their associated weight equal to zero in the optimal solution anyway. TO generate columns, a <i>branch and bound</i> framework is used. Columns are generated within a<br />
branch-and-bound framework leading effectively to a branch-and-bound-and-price algorithm being used; this is significantly more involved compared to column generation in linear programming. To check the optimality of an LP solution, a subproblem, called the pricing problem, is solved to try to identify columns with a profitable reduced cost. If such columns are found, the LP is re-optimized. Branching occurs when no profitable columns are found, but the LP solution does not satisfy the integrality conditions. Branch and price apply column generation at every node of the branch and bound tree.<br />
<br />
The restricted master primal problem is <br />
<br />
$$ \begin{align*} \min &\sum_{i=1}^N z_i \\ s.t. &\sum_{j\in \mathcal L} \eta_{ij}\lambda_j+(1+\rho)z_i \ge \rho \ \ \ <br />
\forall i \in [N]\\ <br />
&\sum_{j\in \mathcal L}\lambda_j=1, \lambda \ge 0,\\ &z\in \{0,1\}^N. \end{align*}$$<br />
<br />
<br />
Its restricted dual problem is:<br />
<br />
$$ \begin{align*}\max \rho &\sum^{N}_{i=1}w_i + v - \sum^{N}_{i=1}u_i<br />
\\ s.t. &\sum_{i=1}^N \eta_{ij}w_k+ v \le 0 \ \ \ \forall j \in L \\ <br />
&(1+\rho)w_i - u_i \le 1 \ \ \ \forall i \in [N] \\ &w \ge 0, u \ge 0, v\ free\end{align*}$$<br />
<br />
Furthermore, there is a pricing problem used to determine, for every supposed optimal solution of the dual, whether the solution is actually optimal, or whether further constraints need to be added into the primal solution. With this pricing problem, we check whether the solution to the restricted dual is feasible. This pricing problem can be expressed as follows:<br />
<br />
$$ \sum_{i=1}^N \eta_{ij}w_k^* + v^* > 0 $$<br />
<br />
The optimal misclassification values are determined by a branch-and-price process that branches on the variables <math> z_i </math> and solves the intermediate LPs using column generation.<br />
<br />
===Algorithm===<br />
<div style="margin-left: 3em;"><br />
<math> D = \{(x_i, y_i) | i ∈ I\} ⊆ R^d × \{±1\} </math>, class of base learners <math>Ω </math>, margin <math> \rho </math> <br><br />
'''Output:''' Boosted learner <math> \sum_{j∈L^∗}h_jλ_j^* </math> with base learners <math> h_j </math> and weights <math> λ_j^* </math> <br><br />
<br />
<ol><br />
<br />
<li margin-left:30px> <math> T ← \{([0, 1]^N, \emptyset)\} </math> &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; // set of local bounds and learners for open subproblems </li><br />
<li> <math> U ← \infty, L^∗ ← \emptyset </math> &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; // Upper bound on optimal objective </li><br />
<li> '''while''' <math>\ T \neq \emptyset </math> '''do''' </li><br />
<li> &emsp; Choose and remove <math>(B,L) </math> from <math>T </math> </li><br />
<li> &emsp; '''repeat''' </li><br />
<li> &emsp; &emsp; Solve the primal IP using the local bounds on <math> z </math> in <math>B</math> with optimal dual solution <math> (w^∗, v^∗, u^∗) </math> </li><br />
<li> &emsp; &emsp; Find learner <math> h_j ∈ Ω </math> satisfying the pricing problem. &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; // Solve pricing problem. </li><br />
<li> &emsp; '''until''' <math> h_j </math> is not found </li> <br />
<li> &emsp; Let <math> (\widetilde{λ} , \widetilde{z}) </math> be the final solution of the primal IP with base learners <math> \widetilde{L} = \{j | \widetilde{λ}_j > 0\} </math> </li><br />
<li> &emsp; '''if''' <math> \widetilde{z} ∈ \mathbb{Z}^N </math> and <math> \sum^{N}_{i=1}\widetilde{z}_i < U </math> '''then''' </li><br />
<li> &emsp; &emsp; <math> U ← \sum^{N}_{i=1}\widetilde{z}_i, L^∗ ← \widetilde{L}, λ^∗ ← \widetilde{\lambda} </math> &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; // Update best solution. </li><br />
<li> &emsp; '''else''' </li><br />
<li> &emsp; &emsp; Choose <math> i ∈ [N] </math> with <math> \widetilde{z}_i \notin Z </math> </li><br />
<li> &emsp; &emsp; Set <math> B_0 ← B ∩ \{z_i ≤ 0\}, B_1 ← B ∩ \{z_i ≥ 1\} </math> </li><br />
<li> &emsp; &emsp; Add <math> (B_0,\widetilde{L}), (B_1,\widetilde{L}) </math> to <math> T </math>. &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; // Create new branching nodes. </li><br />
<li> &emsp; '''end''' if </li><br />
<li> '''end''' while </li><br />
<li> ''Optionally sparsify final solution <math>L^*</math>'' </li><br />
<br />
</ol><br />
</div><br />
<br />
== Results and Performance ==<br />
<br />
''All tests were run on identical Linux clusters with Intel Xeon Quad Core CPUs, with 3.50GHz, 10 MB cache, and 32 GB of main memory.''<br />
<br />
<br />
The following results reflect IPBoost's performance in hard instances. Note that by hard instances, we mean a binary classification problem with predefined labels. These examples are tailored to using the ±1 classification from learners. On every hard instance sample, IPBoost significantly outperforms both LPBoost and AdaBoost (although implementations depending on the libraries used have often caused results to differ slightly). For the considered instances the best value for the margin ρ was 0.05 for LPBoost and IPBoost; AdaBoost has no margin parameter. The accuracy reported is test accuracy recorded across various different walkthroughs of the algorithm, while <math>L </math> denotes the aggregate number of learners required to find the optimal learner, N is the number of points and <math> \gamma </math> refers to the noise level.<br />
<br />
[[File:ipboostres.png|center]]<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
For the next table, the classification instances from LIBSVM data sets available at [https://www.csie.ntu.edu.tw/~cjlin/libsvmtools/datasets/]. We report accuracies on the test set and train set, respectively. In each case, we report the averages of the accuracies over 10 runs with a different random seed and their standard deviations. We can see IPboost again outperforming LPBoost and AdaBoost significantly. Solving Integer Programming problems is no doubt more computationally expensive than traditional boosting methods like AdaBoost. The average run time of IPBoost (for ρ = 0.05) being 1367.78 seconds, as opposed to LPBoost's 164.35 seconds and AdaBoost's 3.59 seconds reflects exactly that. However, on the flip side, we gain much better stability in our results, as well as higher scores across the board for both training and test sets.<br />
<br />
[[file:svmlibres.png|center]]<br />
<br />
<br />
== Conclusion ==<br />
<br />
IP-boosting avoids the bad performance on well-known hard classes and improves upon LP-boosting and AdaBoost on the LIBSVM instances where even a few percent improvements is valuable. The major drawback is that the running time with the current implementation is much longer. Nevertheless, the algorithm can be improved in the future by solving the intermediate LPs only approximately and deriving tailored heuristics that generate decent primal solutions to save on time.<br />
<br />
The approach is suited very well to an offline setting in which training may take time and where even a small improvement is beneficial or when convex boosters have egregious behaviour. It can also be served as a tool to investigate the general performance of methods like this.<br />
<br />
The IPBoost algorithm added extra complexity into basic boosting models to gain slight accuracy gain while greatly increased the time spent. It is 381 times slower compared to an AdaBoost model on a small dataset which makes the actual usage of this model doubtable. If we are supplied with a larger dataset with millions of records this model would take too long to complete. The base classifier choice was XGBoost which is too complicated for a base classifier, maybe try some weaker learners such as tree stumps to compare the result with other models. In addition, this model might not be accurate compared to the model-ensembling technique where each model utilizes a different algorithm.<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
<br />
* Pfetsch, M. E., & Pokutta, S. (2020). IPBoost--Non-Convex Boosting via Integer Programming. arXiv preprint arXiv:2002.04679.<br />
<br />
* Freund, Y., & Schapire, R. E. (1995, March). A desicion-theoretic generalization of on-line learning and an application to boosting. In European conference on computational learning theory (pp. 23-37). Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. pdf</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=IPBoost&diff=45447IPBoost2020-11-21T00:48:20Z<p>B22chang: /* Introduction */</p>
<hr />
<div>== Presented by == <br />
Casey De Vera, Solaiman Jawad<br />
<br />
== Introduction == <br />
Boosting is an important and, by now, a fairly standard technique in classification to combine several “low accuracy” learners, so-called base learners, into a “high accuracy” learner, a so-called boosted learner. Pioneered by the AdaBoost approach of Freund & Schapire, in recent decades there has been extensive work on boosting procedures and analyses of their limitations.<br />
<br />
In a nutshell, boosting procedures are (typically) iterative schemes that roughly work as follows:<br />
<br />
for <math> t= 1, \cdots, T </math> do the following:<br />
<br />
# Push weight of the data distribution <math> \mathcal D_t</math> towards misclassified examples leading to <math> \mathcal D_{t+1}</math><br />
<br />
# Evaluate performance of <math> \mu_t</math> by computing its loss.<br />
<br />
# Train a learner <math> \mu_t</math> from a given class of base learners on the data distribution <math> \mathcal D_t</math><br />
<br />
Finally, the learners are combined with some form of voting (e.g., soft or hard voting, averaging, thresholding).<br />
<br />
<br />
[[File:boosting.gif|200px|thumb|right]] A close inspection of most boosting procedures reveals that they solve an underlying convex optimization problem over a convex loss function by means of coordinate gradient descent. Boosting schemes of this type are often referred to as '''convex potential boosters'''. These procedures can achieve exceptional performance on many data sets if the data is correctly labeled. However, they can be defeated easily by a small amount of label noise and cannot be fixed easily. The reason being we will zoom in to check the misclassified examples and trying to solve them by moving the weights around which will result in a bad performance on unseen data. In fact, in theory, provided the class of base learners is rich enough, a perfect strong learner can be constructed that has accuracy 1, however, clearly, such a learner might not necessarily generalize well. Boosted learners can generate quite some complicated decision boundaries, much more complicated than that of the base learners. Here is an example from Paul van der Laken’s blog / Extreme gradient boosting gif by Ryan Holbrook. Here data is generated online according to some process with optimal decision boundary represented by the dotted line and XGBoost was used to learn a classifier:<br />
<br />
<br />
Recently non-convex optimization approaches for solving machine learning problems have gained significant attention. In this paper, we explore non-convex boosting in classification by means of integer programming and demonstrate real-world practicability of the approach while circumventing shortcomings of convex boosting approaches. The paper reports results that are comparable to or better than current state-of-the-art approaches.<br />
<br />
== Motivation ==<br />
<br />
In reality, we usually face unclean data and so-called label noise, where some percentage of the classification labels might be corrupted. We would also like to construct strong learners for such data. Noisy labels are an issue because when a model is trained with excessive amounts of noisy labels, the performance and accuracy deteriorates greatly. However, if we revisit the general boosting template from above, then we might suspect that we run into trouble as soon as a certain fraction of training examples is misclassified: in this case, these examples cannot be correctly classified and the procedure shifts more and more weight towards these bad examples. This eventually leads to a strong learner, that perfectly predicts the (flawed) training data, however that does not generalize well anymore. This intuition has been formalized by [LS] who construct a “hard” training data distribution, where a small percentage of labels is randomly flipped. This label noise then leads to a significant reduction in performance of these boosted learners; see tables below. The more technical reason for this problem is actually the convexity of the loss function that is minimized by the boosting procedure. Clearly, one can use all types of “tricks” such as early stopping but at the end of the day, this is not solving the fundamental problem.<br />
<br />
== IPBoost: Boosting via Integer Programming ==<br />
<br />
<br />
===Integer Program Formulation===<br />
Let <math>(x_1,y_1),\cdots, (x_N,y_N) </math> be the training set with points <math>x_i \in \mathbb{R}^d</math> and two-class labels <math>y_i \in \{\pm 1\}</math> <br />
* class of base learners: <math> \Omega :=\{h_1, \cdots, h_L: \mathbb{R}^d \rightarrow \{\pm 1\}\} </math> and <math>\rho \ge 0</math> be given. <br />
* error function <math> \eta </math><br />
Our boosting model is captured by the integer programming problem. We can call this our primal problem: <br />
<br />
$$ \begin{align*} \min &\sum_{i=1}^N z_i \\ s.t. &\sum_{j=1}^L \eta_{ij}\lambda_k+(1+\rho)z_i \ge \rho \ \ \ <br />
\forall i=1,\cdots, N \\ <br />
&\sum_{j=1}^L \lambda_j=1, \lambda \ge 0,\\ &z\in \{0,1\}^N. \end{align*}$$<br />
<br />
===Solution of the IP using Column Generation===<br />
<br />
The goal of column generation is to provide an efficient way to solve the linear programming relaxation of the primal by allowing the <math>z_i </math> variables to assume fractional values. Moreover, columns, i.e., the base learners, <math> \mathcal L \subseteq [L]. </math> are left out because there are too many to handle efficiently and most of them will have their associated weight equal to zero in the optimal solution anyway. TO generate columns, a <i>branch and bound</i> framework is used. Columns are generated within a<br />
branch-and-bound framework leading effectively to a branch-and-bound-and-price algorithm being used; this is significantly more involved compared to column generation in linear programming. To check the optimality of an LP solution, a subproblem, called the pricing problem, is solved to try to identify columns with a profitable reduced cost. If such columns are found, the LP is re-optimized. Branching occurs when no profitable columns are found, but the LP solution does not satisfy the integrality conditions. Branch and price apply column generation at every node of the branch and bound tree.<br />
<br />
The restricted master primal problem is <br />
<br />
$$ \begin{align*} \min &\sum_{i=1}^N z_i \\ s.t. &\sum_{j\in \mathcal L} \eta_{ij}\lambda_j+(1+\rho)z_i \ge \rho \ \ \ <br />
\forall i \in [N]\\ <br />
&\sum_{j\in \mathcal L}\lambda_j=1, \lambda \ge 0,\\ &z\in \{0,1\}^N. \end{align*}$$<br />
<br />
<br />
Its restricted dual problem is:<br />
<br />
$$ \begin{align*}\max \rho &\sum^{N}_{i=1}w_i + v - \sum^{N}_{i=1}u_i<br />
\\ s.t. &\sum_{i=1}^N \eta_{ij}w_k+ v \le 0 \ \ \ \forall j \in L \\ <br />
&(1+\rho)w_i - u_i \le 1 \ \ \ \forall i \in [N] \\ &w \ge 0, u \ge 0, v\ free\end{align*}$$<br />
<br />
Furthermore, there is a pricing problem used to determine, for every supposed optimal solution of the dual, whether the solution is actually optimal, or whether further constraints need to be added into the primal solution. With this pricing problem, we check whether the solution to the restricted dual is feasible. This pricing problem can be expressed as follows:<br />
<br />
$$ \sum_{i=1}^N \eta_{ij}w_k^* + v^* > 0 $$<br />
<br />
The optimal misclassification values are determined by a branch-and-price process that branches on the variables <math> z_i </math> and solves the intermediate LPs using column generation.<br />
<br />
===Algorithm===<br />
<div style="margin-left: 3em;"><br />
<math> D = \{(x_i, y_i) | i ∈ I\} ⊆ R^d × \{±1\} </math>, class of base learners <math>Ω </math>, margin <math> \rho </math> <br><br />
'''Output:''' Boosted learner <math> \sum_{j∈L^∗}h_jλ_j^* </math> with base learners <math> h_j </math> and weights <math> λ_j^* </math> <br><br />
<br />
<ol><br />
<br />
<li margin-left:30px> <math> T ← \{([0, 1]^N, \emptyset)\} </math> &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; // set of local bounds and learners for open subproblems </li><br />
<li> <math> U ← \infty, L^∗ ← \emptyset </math> &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; // Upper bound on optimal objective </li><br />
<li> '''while''' <math>\ T \neq \emptyset </math> '''do''' </li><br />
<li> &emsp; Choose and remove <math>(B,L) </math> from <math>T </math> </li><br />
<li> &emsp; '''repeat''' </li><br />
<li> &emsp; &emsp; Solve the primal IP using the local bounds on <math> z </math> in <math>B</math> with optimal dual solution <math> (w^∗, v^∗, u^∗) </math> </li><br />
<li> &emsp; &emsp; Find learner <math> h_j ∈ Ω </math> satisfying the pricing problem. &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; // Solve pricing problem. </li><br />
<li> &emsp; '''until''' <math> h_j </math> is not found </li> <br />
<li> &emsp; Let <math> (\widetilde{λ} , \widetilde{z}) </math> be the final solution of the primal IP with base learners <math> \widetilde{L} = \{j | \widetilde{λ}_j > 0\} </math> </li><br />
<li> &emsp; '''if''' <math> \widetilde{z} ∈ \mathbb{Z}^N </math> and <math> \sum^{N}_{i=1}\widetilde{z}_i < U </math> '''then''' </li><br />
<li> &emsp; &emsp; <math> U ← \sum^{N}_{i=1}\widetilde{z}_i, L^∗ ← \widetilde{L}, λ^∗ ← \widetilde{\lambda} </math> &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; // Update best solution. </li><br />
<li> &emsp; '''else''' </li><br />
<li> &emsp; &emsp; Choose <math> i ∈ [N] </math> with <math> \widetilde{z}_i \notin Z </math> </li><br />
<li> &emsp; &emsp; Set <math> B_0 ← B ∩ \{z_i ≤ 0\}, B_1 ← B ∩ \{z_i ≥ 1\} </math> </li><br />
<li> &emsp; &emsp; Add <math> (B_0,\widetilde{L}), (B_1,\widetilde{L}) </math> to <math> T </math>. &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; &emsp; // Create new branching nodes. </li><br />
<li> &emsp; '''end''' if </li><br />
<li> '''end''' while </li><br />
<li> ''Optionally sparsify final solution <math>L^*</math>'' </li><br />
<br />
</ol><br />
</div><br />
<br />
== Results and Performance ==<br />
<br />
''All tests were run on identical Linux clusters with Intel Xeon Quad Core CPUs, with 3.50GHz, 10 MB cache, and 32 GB of main memory.''<br />
<br />
<br />
The following results reflect IPBoost's performance in hard instances. Note that by hard instances, we mean a binary classification problem with predefined labels. These examples are tailored to using the ±1 classification from learners. On every hard instance sample, IPBoost significantly outperforms both LPBoost and AdaBoost (although implementations depending on the libraries used have often caused results to differ slightly). For the considered instances the best value for the margin ρ was 0.05 for LPBoost and IPBoost; AdaBoost has no margin parameter. The accuracy reported is test accuracy recorded across various different walkthroughs of the algorithm, while <math>L </math> denotes the aggregate number of learners required to find the optimal learner, N is the number of points and <math> \gamma </math> refers to the noise level.<br />
<br />
[[File:ipboostres.png|center]]<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
For the next table, the classification instances from LIBSVM data sets available at [https://www.csie.ntu.edu.tw/~cjlin/libsvmtools/datasets/]. We report accuracies on the test set and train set, respectively. In each case, we report the averages of the accuracies over 10 runs with a different random seed and their standard deviations. We can see IPboost again outperforming LPBoost and AdaBoost significantly. Solving Integer Programming problems is no doubt more computationally expensive than traditional boosting methods like AdaBoost. The average run time of IPBoost (for ρ = 0.05) being 1367.78 seconds, as opposed to LPBoost's 164.35 seconds and AdaBoost's 3.59 seconds reflects exactly that. However, on the flip side, we gain much better stability in our results, as well as higher scores across the board for both training and test sets.<br />
<br />
[[file:svmlibres.png|center]]<br />
<br />
<br />
== Conclusion ==<br />
<br />
IP-boosting avoids the bad performance on well-known hard classes and improves upon LP-boosting and AdaBoost on the LIBSVM instances where even a few percent improvements is valuable. The major drawback is that the running time with the current implementation is much longer. Nevertheless, the algorithm can be improved in the future by solving the intermediate LPs only approximately and deriving tailored heuristics that generate decent primal solutions to save on time.<br />
<br />
The approach is suited very well to an offline setting in which training may take time and where even a small improvement is beneficial or when convex boosters have egregious behaviour.<br />
<br />
The IPBoost algorithm added extra complexity into basic boosting models to gain slight accuracy gain while greatly increased the time spent. It is 381 times slower compared to an AdaBoost model on a small dataset which makes the actual usage of this model doubtable. If we are supplied with a larger dataset with millions of records this model would take too long to complete. The base classifier choice was XGBoost which is too complicated for a base classifier, maybe try some weaker learners such as tree stumps to compare the result with other models. In addition, this model might not be accurate compared to the model-ensembling technique where each model utilizes a different algorithm.<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
<br />
* Pfetsch, M. E., & Pokutta, S. (2020). IPBoost--Non-Convex Boosting via Integer Programming. arXiv preprint arXiv:2002.04679.<br />
<br />
* Freund, Y., & Schapire, R. E. (1995, March). A desicion-theoretic generalization of on-line learning and an application to boosting. In European conference on computational learning theory (pp. 23-37). Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. pdf</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=Streaming_Bayesian_Inference_for_Crowdsourced_Classification&diff=45446Streaming Bayesian Inference for Crowdsourced Classification2020-11-21T00:40:25Z<p>B22chang: /* Sorted SBIC */</p>
<hr />
<div>Group 4 Paper Presentation Summary<br />
<br />
By Jonathan Chow, Nyle Dharani, Ildar Nasirov<br />
<br />
== Motivation ==<br />
Crowdsourcing can be a useful tool for data generation in classification projects. Often this takes the form of online questions which many respondents will manually answer for payment. One example of this is Amazon's Mechanical Turk. In theory, it is effective in processing high volumes of small tasks that would be expensive to achieve otherwise.<br />
<br />
The primary limitation with this form of acquiring data is that respondents are liable to submit incorrect responses. This results in datasets that are noisy and unreliable.<br />
<br />
However, the integrity of the data is then limited by how well ground-truth can be determined. The primary method for doing so is probabilistic inference. However, current methods are computationally expensive, lack theoretical guarantees, or are limited to specific settings.<br />
<br />
== Dawid-Skene Model for Crowdsourcing ==<br />
The one-coin Dawid-Skene model is popular for contextualizing crowdsourcing problems. For task <math>i</math> in set <math>M</math>, let the ground-truth be the binary <math>y_i = {\pm 1}</math>. We get labels <math>X = {x_{ij}}</math> where <math>j \in N</math> is the index for that worker.<br />
<br />
At each time step <math>t</math>, a worker <math>j = a(t) </math> provides their label for an assigned task <math>i</math> and provides the label<math>x_{ij} = {\pm 1}</math>. We denote responses up to time <math>t</math> via superscript.<br />
<br />
We let <math>x_{ij} = 0</math> if worker <math>j</math> has not completed task <math>i</math>. We assume that <math>P(x_{ij} = y_i) = p_j</math>. This implies that each worker is independent and has equal probability of correct labelling regardless of task. In crowdsourcing the data, we must determine how workers are assigned to tasks. We introduce two methods.<br />
<br />
Under uniform sampling, workers are allocated to tasks such that each task is completed by the same number of workers, rounded to the nearest integer, and no worker completes a task more than once. This policy is given by <center><math>\pi_{uni}(t) = argmin_{i \notin M_{a(t)}^t}\{ | N_i^t | \}.</math></center><br />
<br />
Under uncertainty sampling, we assign more workers to tasks that are less certain. Assuming, we are able to estimate the posterior probability of ground-truth, we can allocate workers to the task with the lowest probability of falling into the predicted class. This policy is given by <center><math>\pi_{us}(t) = argmin_{i \notin M_{a(t)}^t}\{ (max_{k \in \{\pm 1\}} ( P(y_i = k | X^t) ) \}.</math></center><br />
<br />
We then need to aggregate the data. The simple method of majority voting makes predictions for a given task based on the class the most workers have assigned it, <math>\hat{y}_i = sign\{\sum_{j \in N_i} x_{ij}\}</math>.<br />
<br />
== Streaming Bayesian Inference for Crowdsourced Classification (SBIC) ==<br />
The aim of the SBIC algorithm is to estimate the posterior probability, <math>P(y, p | X^t, \theta)</math> where <math>X^t</math> are the observed responses at time <math>t</math> and <math>\theta</math> is our prior. We can then generate predictions <math>\hat{y}^t</math> as the marginal probability over each <math>y_i</math> given <math>X^t</math>, and <math>\theta</math>.<br />
<br />
We factor <math>P(y, p | X^t, \theta) \approx \prod_{I \in M} \mu_i^t (y_i) \prod_{j \in N} \nu_j^t (p_j) </math> where <math>\mu_i^t</math> corresponds to each task and <math>\nu_j^t</math> to each worker.<br />
<br />
We then sequentially optimize the factors <math>\mu^t</math> and <math>\nu^t</math>. We begin by assuming that the worker accuracy follows a beta distribution with parameters <math>\alpha</math> and <math>\beta</math>. Initialize the task factors <math>\mu_i^0(+1) = q</math> and <math>\mu_i^0(-1) = 1 – q</math> for all <math>i</math>.<br />
<br />
When a new label is observed at time <math>t</math>, we update the <math>\nu_j^t</math> of worker <math>j</math>. We then update <math>\mu_i</math>. These updates are given by<br />
<br />
<center><math>\nu_j^t(p_j) \sim Beta(\sum_{i \in M_j^{t - 1}} \mu_i^{t - 1}(x_{ij}) + \alpha, \sum_{i \in M_j^{t - 1}} \mu_i^{t - 1}(-x_{ij}) + \beta) </math></center><br />
<br />
<center><math>\mu_i^t(y_i) \propto \begin{cases} \mu_i^{t - 1}(y_i)\overline{p}_j^t & x_{ij} = y_i \\ \mu_i^{t - 1}(y_i)(1 - \overline{p}_j^t) & x_{ij} \ne y_i \end{cases}</math></center><br />
where <math>\hat{p}_j^t = \frac{\sum_{i \in M_j^{t - 1}} \mu_i^{t - 1}(x_{ij}) + \alpha}{|M_j^{t - 1}| + \alpha + \beta }</math>.<br />
<br />
We choose our predictions to be the maximum <math>\mu_i^t(k) </math> for <math>k= \{-1,1\}</math>.<br />
<br />
Depending on our ordering of labels <math>X</math>, we can select for different applications.<br />
<br />
== Fast SBIC ==<br />
The pseudocode for Fast SBIC is shown below.<br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:FastSBIC.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
As the name implies, the goal of this algorithm is speed. To facilitate this, we leave the order of <math>X</math> unchanged.<br />
<br />
We express <math>\mu_i^t</math> in terms of its log-odds<br />
<center><math>z_i^t = log(\frac{\mu_i^t(+1)}{ \mu_i^t(-1)}) = z_i^{t - 1} + x_{ij} log(\frac{\overline{p}_j^t}{1 - \overline{p}_j^t })</math></center><br />
where <math>z_i^0 = log(\frac{q}{1 - q})</math>.<br />
<br />
The product chain then becomes a summation and removes the need to normalize each <math>\mu_i^t</math>. We use these log-odds to compute worker accuracy,<br />
<br />
<center><math>\overline{p}_j^t = \frac{\sum_{i \in M_j^{t - 1}} sig(x_{ij} z_i^{t-1}) + \alpha}{|M_j^{t - 1}| + \alpha + \beta}</math></center><br />
where <math>sig(z_i^{t-1}) := \frac{1}{1 + exp(-z_i^{t - 1})} = \mu_i^{t - 1}(+1) </math><br />
<br />
The final predictions are made by choosing class <math>\hat{y}_i^T = sign(z_i^T) </math>. We see later that Fast SBIC has similar computational speed to majority voting.<br />
<br />
== Sorted SBIC ==<br />
To increase the accuracy of the SBIC algorithm in exchange for computational efficiency, we run the algorithm in parallel giving labels in different orders. The pseudocode for this algorithm is given below.<br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:SortedSBIC.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
From the general discussion of SBIC, we know that predictions on task <math>i</math> are more accurate toward the end of the collection process. This is a result of observing more data points and having run more updates on <math>\mu_i^t</math> and <math>\nu_j^t</math> to move them further from their prior. This means that task <math>i</math> is predicted more accurately when its corresponding labels are seen closer to the end of the process.<br />
<br />
We take advantage of this property by maintaining a distinct “view” of the log-odds for each task. When a label is observed, we update views for all tasks except the one for which the label was observed. At the end of the collection process, we process skipped labels. When run online, this process must be repeated at every timestep.<br />
<br />
We see that sorted SBIC is slower than Fast SBIC by a factor of M, the number of tasks. However, we can reduce the complexity by viewing <math>s^k</math> across different tasks in an offline setting when the whole dataset is known in advance.<br />
<br />
== Theoretical Analysis ==<br />
The authors prove an exponential relationship between the error probability and the number of labels per task. The two theorems, for the different sampling regimes, are presented below.<br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:Theorem1.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:Theorem2.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
== Empirical Analysis ==<br />
The purpose of the empirical analysis is to compare SBIC to the existing state of the art algorithms. The SBIC algorithm is run on five real-world binary classification datasets. The results can be found in the table below. Other algorithms in the comparison are, from left to right, majority voting, expectation-maximization, mean-field, belief-propagation, Monte-Carlo sampling, and triangular estimation. <br />
<br />
Firstly, the algorithms are run on synthetic data that meets the assumptions of the underlying one-coin Dawid-Skene model, which allows the authors to compare SBIC's performance empirically with the theoretical results oreviously shown. <br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:RealWorldResults.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
In bold are the best performing algorithms for each dataset. We see that both versions of the SBIC algorithm are competitive, having similar prediction errors to EM, AMF, and MC. All are considered state-of-the-art Bayesian algorithms.<br />
<br />
The figure below shows the average time required to simulate predictions on synthetic data under an uncertainty sampling policy. We see that Fast SBIC is comparable to majority voting and significantly faster than the other algorithms. This speed improvement, coupled with comparable accuracy, makes the Fast SBIC algorithm powerful.<br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:TimeRequirement.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
== Conclusion and Future Research ==<br />
In conclusion, we have seen that SBIC is computationally efficient, accurate in practice, and has theoretical guarantees. The authors intend to extend the algorithm to the multi-class case in the future.<br />
<br />
== Critique ==<br />
In crowdsourcing data, the cost associated with collecting additional labels is not usually prohibitively expensive. As a result, if there is concern over ground-truth, paying for additional data to ensure <math>X</math> is sufficiently dense may be the desired response as opposed to sacrificing ground-truth accuracy. This may result in the SBIC algorithm being less practically useful than intended.<br />
<br />
The paper is tackling the classic problem of aggregating labels in a crowdsourced application, with a focus on speed. The algorithms proposed are fast and simple to implement and come with theoretical guarantees on the bounds for error rates. However, the paper starts with an objective of designing fast label aggregation algorithms for a streaming setting yet doesn’t spend any time motivating the applications in which such algorithms are needed. All the datasets used in the empirical analysis are static datasets therefore for the paper to be useful, the problem considered should be well motivated. It also appears that the output from the algorithm depends on the order in which the data are processed, which may need some should be clarified. Finally, the theoretical results are presented under the assumption that the predictions of the FBI converge to the ground truth, however, the reasoning behind this assumption is not explained.<br />
<br />
The paper assumes that crowdsourcing from human-being is systematic: that is, respondents to the problems would act in similar ways that can be classified into some categories. There are lots of other factors that need to be considered for a human respondent, such as fatigue effects and conflicts of interest. Those factors would seriously jeopardize the validity of the results and the model if they were not carefully designed and taken care of. For example, one formally accurate subject reacts badly to the subject one day generating lots of faulty data, and it would take lots of correct votes to even out the effects. Even in lots of medical experiment that involves human subjects, with rigorous standard and procedure, the result could still be invalid. The trade-off for speed while sacrificing the validity is not wise.<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
[1] Manino, Tran-Thanh, and Jennings. Streaming Bayesian Inference for Crowdsourced Classification. 33rd Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems, 2019</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=Streaming_Bayesian_Inference_for_Crowdsourced_Classification&diff=45445Streaming Bayesian Inference for Crowdsourced Classification2020-11-21T00:40:03Z<p>B22chang: /* Sorted SBIC */</p>
<hr />
<div>Group 4 Paper Presentation Summary<br />
<br />
By Jonathan Chow, Nyle Dharani, Ildar Nasirov<br />
<br />
== Motivation ==<br />
Crowdsourcing can be a useful tool for data generation in classification projects. Often this takes the form of online questions which many respondents will manually answer for payment. One example of this is Amazon's Mechanical Turk. In theory, it is effective in processing high volumes of small tasks that would be expensive to achieve otherwise.<br />
<br />
The primary limitation with this form of acquiring data is that respondents are liable to submit incorrect responses. This results in datasets that are noisy and unreliable.<br />
<br />
However, the integrity of the data is then limited by how well ground-truth can be determined. The primary method for doing so is probabilistic inference. However, current methods are computationally expensive, lack theoretical guarantees, or are limited to specific settings.<br />
<br />
== Dawid-Skene Model for Crowdsourcing ==<br />
The one-coin Dawid-Skene model is popular for contextualizing crowdsourcing problems. For task <math>i</math> in set <math>M</math>, let the ground-truth be the binary <math>y_i = {\pm 1}</math>. We get labels <math>X = {x_{ij}}</math> where <math>j \in N</math> is the index for that worker.<br />
<br />
At each time step <math>t</math>, a worker <math>j = a(t) </math> provides their label for an assigned task <math>i</math> and provides the label<math>x_{ij} = {\pm 1}</math>. We denote responses up to time <math>t</math> via superscript.<br />
<br />
We let <math>x_{ij} = 0</math> if worker <math>j</math> has not completed task <math>i</math>. We assume that <math>P(x_{ij} = y_i) = p_j</math>. This implies that each worker is independent and has equal probability of correct labelling regardless of task. In crowdsourcing the data, we must determine how workers are assigned to tasks. We introduce two methods.<br />
<br />
Under uniform sampling, workers are allocated to tasks such that each task is completed by the same number of workers, rounded to the nearest integer, and no worker completes a task more than once. This policy is given by <center><math>\pi_{uni}(t) = argmin_{i \notin M_{a(t)}^t}\{ | N_i^t | \}.</math></center><br />
<br />
Under uncertainty sampling, we assign more workers to tasks that are less certain. Assuming, we are able to estimate the posterior probability of ground-truth, we can allocate workers to the task with the lowest probability of falling into the predicted class. This policy is given by <center><math>\pi_{us}(t) = argmin_{i \notin M_{a(t)}^t}\{ (max_{k \in \{\pm 1\}} ( P(y_i = k | X^t) ) \}.</math></center><br />
<br />
We then need to aggregate the data. The simple method of majority voting makes predictions for a given task based on the class the most workers have assigned it, <math>\hat{y}_i = sign\{\sum_{j \in N_i} x_{ij}\}</math>.<br />
<br />
== Streaming Bayesian Inference for Crowdsourced Classification (SBIC) ==<br />
The aim of the SBIC algorithm is to estimate the posterior probability, <math>P(y, p | X^t, \theta)</math> where <math>X^t</math> are the observed responses at time <math>t</math> and <math>\theta</math> is our prior. We can then generate predictions <math>\hat{y}^t</math> as the marginal probability over each <math>y_i</math> given <math>X^t</math>, and <math>\theta</math>.<br />
<br />
We factor <math>P(y, p | X^t, \theta) \approx \prod_{I \in M} \mu_i^t (y_i) \prod_{j \in N} \nu_j^t (p_j) </math> where <math>\mu_i^t</math> corresponds to each task and <math>\nu_j^t</math> to each worker.<br />
<br />
We then sequentially optimize the factors <math>\mu^t</math> and <math>\nu^t</math>. We begin by assuming that the worker accuracy follows a beta distribution with parameters <math>\alpha</math> and <math>\beta</math>. Initialize the task factors <math>\mu_i^0(+1) = q</math> and <math>\mu_i^0(-1) = 1 – q</math> for all <math>i</math>.<br />
<br />
When a new label is observed at time <math>t</math>, we update the <math>\nu_j^t</math> of worker <math>j</math>. We then update <math>\mu_i</math>. These updates are given by<br />
<br />
<center><math>\nu_j^t(p_j) \sim Beta(\sum_{i \in M_j^{t - 1}} \mu_i^{t - 1}(x_{ij}) + \alpha, \sum_{i \in M_j^{t - 1}} \mu_i^{t - 1}(-x_{ij}) + \beta) </math></center><br />
<br />
<center><math>\mu_i^t(y_i) \propto \begin{cases} \mu_i^{t - 1}(y_i)\overline{p}_j^t & x_{ij} = y_i \\ \mu_i^{t - 1}(y_i)(1 - \overline{p}_j^t) & x_{ij} \ne y_i \end{cases}</math></center><br />
where <math>\hat{p}_j^t = \frac{\sum_{i \in M_j^{t - 1}} \mu_i^{t - 1}(x_{ij}) + \alpha}{|M_j^{t - 1}| + \alpha + \beta }</math>.<br />
<br />
We choose our predictions to be the maximum <math>\mu_i^t(k) </math> for <math>k= \{-1,1\}</math>.<br />
<br />
Depending on our ordering of labels <math>X</math>, we can select for different applications.<br />
<br />
== Fast SBIC ==<br />
The pseudocode for Fast SBIC is shown below.<br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:FastSBIC.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
As the name implies, the goal of this algorithm is speed. To facilitate this, we leave the order of <math>X</math> unchanged.<br />
<br />
We express <math>\mu_i^t</math> in terms of its log-odds<br />
<center><math>z_i^t = log(\frac{\mu_i^t(+1)}{ \mu_i^t(-1)}) = z_i^{t - 1} + x_{ij} log(\frac{\overline{p}_j^t}{1 - \overline{p}_j^t })</math></center><br />
where <math>z_i^0 = log(\frac{q}{1 - q})</math>.<br />
<br />
The product chain then becomes a summation and removes the need to normalize each <math>\mu_i^t</math>. We use these log-odds to compute worker accuracy,<br />
<br />
<center><math>\overline{p}_j^t = \frac{\sum_{i \in M_j^{t - 1}} sig(x_{ij} z_i^{t-1}) + \alpha}{|M_j^{t - 1}| + \alpha + \beta}</math></center><br />
where <math>sig(z_i^{t-1}) := \frac{1}{1 + exp(-z_i^{t - 1})} = \mu_i^{t - 1}(+1) </math><br />
<br />
The final predictions are made by choosing class <math>\hat{y}_i^T = sign(z_i^T) </math>. We see later that Fast SBIC has similar computational speed to majority voting.<br />
<br />
== Sorted SBIC ==<br />
To increase the accuracy of the SBIC algorithm in exchange for computational efficiency, we run the algorithm in parallel giving labels in different orders. The pseudocode for this algorithm is given below.<br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:SortedSBIC.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
From the general discussion of SBIC, we know that predictions on task <math>i</math> are more accurate toward the end of the collection process. This is a result of observing more data points and having run more updates on <math>\mu_i^t</math> and <math>\nu_j^t</math> to move them further from their prior. This means that task <math>i</math> is predicted more accurately when its corresponding labels are seen closer to the end of the process.<br />
<br />
We take advantage of this property by maintaining a distinct “view” of the log-odds for each task. When a label is observed, we update views for all tasks except the one for which the label was observed. At the end of the collection process, we process skipped labels. When run online, this process must be repeated at every timestep.<br />
<br />
We see that sorted SBIC is slower than Fast SBIC by a factor of M, the number of tasks. However, we can reduce the complexity by viewing <math>s^k<\math> across different tasks in an offline setting when the whole dataset is known in advance.<br />
<br />
== Theoretical Analysis ==<br />
The authors prove an exponential relationship between the error probability and the number of labels per task. The two theorems, for the different sampling regimes, are presented below.<br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:Theorem1.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:Theorem2.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
== Empirical Analysis ==<br />
The purpose of the empirical analysis is to compare SBIC to the existing state of the art algorithms. The SBIC algorithm is run on five real-world binary classification datasets. The results can be found in the table below. Other algorithms in the comparison are, from left to right, majority voting, expectation-maximization, mean-field, belief-propagation, Monte-Carlo sampling, and triangular estimation. <br />
<br />
Firstly, the algorithms are run on synthetic data that meets the assumptions of the underlying one-coin Dawid-Skene model, which allows the authors to compare SBIC's performance empirically with the theoretical results oreviously shown. <br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:RealWorldResults.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
In bold are the best performing algorithms for each dataset. We see that both versions of the SBIC algorithm are competitive, having similar prediction errors to EM, AMF, and MC. All are considered state-of-the-art Bayesian algorithms.<br />
<br />
The figure below shows the average time required to simulate predictions on synthetic data under an uncertainty sampling policy. We see that Fast SBIC is comparable to majority voting and significantly faster than the other algorithms. This speed improvement, coupled with comparable accuracy, makes the Fast SBIC algorithm powerful.<br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:TimeRequirement.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
== Conclusion and Future Research ==<br />
In conclusion, we have seen that SBIC is computationally efficient, accurate in practice, and has theoretical guarantees. The authors intend to extend the algorithm to the multi-class case in the future.<br />
<br />
== Critique ==<br />
In crowdsourcing data, the cost associated with collecting additional labels is not usually prohibitively expensive. As a result, if there is concern over ground-truth, paying for additional data to ensure <math>X</math> is sufficiently dense may be the desired response as opposed to sacrificing ground-truth accuracy. This may result in the SBIC algorithm being less practically useful than intended.<br />
<br />
The paper is tackling the classic problem of aggregating labels in a crowdsourced application, with a focus on speed. The algorithms proposed are fast and simple to implement and come with theoretical guarantees on the bounds for error rates. However, the paper starts with an objective of designing fast label aggregation algorithms for a streaming setting yet doesn’t spend any time motivating the applications in which such algorithms are needed. All the datasets used in the empirical analysis are static datasets therefore for the paper to be useful, the problem considered should be well motivated. It also appears that the output from the algorithm depends on the order in which the data are processed, which may need some should be clarified. Finally, the theoretical results are presented under the assumption that the predictions of the FBI converge to the ground truth, however, the reasoning behind this assumption is not explained.<br />
<br />
The paper assumes that crowdsourcing from human-being is systematic: that is, respondents to the problems would act in similar ways that can be classified into some categories. There are lots of other factors that need to be considered for a human respondent, such as fatigue effects and conflicts of interest. Those factors would seriously jeopardize the validity of the results and the model if they were not carefully designed and taken care of. For example, one formally accurate subject reacts badly to the subject one day generating lots of faulty data, and it would take lots of correct votes to even out the effects. Even in lots of medical experiment that involves human subjects, with rigorous standard and procedure, the result could still be invalid. The trade-off for speed while sacrificing the validity is not wise.<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
[1] Manino, Tran-Thanh, and Jennings. Streaming Bayesian Inference for Crowdsourced Classification. 33rd Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems, 2019</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=Streaming_Bayesian_Inference_for_Crowdsourced_Classification&diff=45444Streaming Bayesian Inference for Crowdsourced Classification2020-11-21T00:39:36Z<p>B22chang: /* Sorted SBIC */</p>
<hr />
<div>Group 4 Paper Presentation Summary<br />
<br />
By Jonathan Chow, Nyle Dharani, Ildar Nasirov<br />
<br />
== Motivation ==<br />
Crowdsourcing can be a useful tool for data generation in classification projects. Often this takes the form of online questions which many respondents will manually answer for payment. One example of this is Amazon's Mechanical Turk. In theory, it is effective in processing high volumes of small tasks that would be expensive to achieve otherwise.<br />
<br />
The primary limitation with this form of acquiring data is that respondents are liable to submit incorrect responses. This results in datasets that are noisy and unreliable.<br />
<br />
However, the integrity of the data is then limited by how well ground-truth can be determined. The primary method for doing so is probabilistic inference. However, current methods are computationally expensive, lack theoretical guarantees, or are limited to specific settings.<br />
<br />
== Dawid-Skene Model for Crowdsourcing ==<br />
The one-coin Dawid-Skene model is popular for contextualizing crowdsourcing problems. For task <math>i</math> in set <math>M</math>, let the ground-truth be the binary <math>y_i = {\pm 1}</math>. We get labels <math>X = {x_{ij}}</math> where <math>j \in N</math> is the index for that worker.<br />
<br />
At each time step <math>t</math>, a worker <math>j = a(t) </math> provides their label for an assigned task <math>i</math> and provides the label<math>x_{ij} = {\pm 1}</math>. We denote responses up to time <math>t</math> via superscript.<br />
<br />
We let <math>x_{ij} = 0</math> if worker <math>j</math> has not completed task <math>i</math>. We assume that <math>P(x_{ij} = y_i) = p_j</math>. This implies that each worker is independent and has equal probability of correct labelling regardless of task. In crowdsourcing the data, we must determine how workers are assigned to tasks. We introduce two methods.<br />
<br />
Under uniform sampling, workers are allocated to tasks such that each task is completed by the same number of workers, rounded to the nearest integer, and no worker completes a task more than once. This policy is given by <center><math>\pi_{uni}(t) = argmin_{i \notin M_{a(t)}^t}\{ | N_i^t | \}.</math></center><br />
<br />
Under uncertainty sampling, we assign more workers to tasks that are less certain. Assuming, we are able to estimate the posterior probability of ground-truth, we can allocate workers to the task with the lowest probability of falling into the predicted class. This policy is given by <center><math>\pi_{us}(t) = argmin_{i \notin M_{a(t)}^t}\{ (max_{k \in \{\pm 1\}} ( P(y_i = k | X^t) ) \}.</math></center><br />
<br />
We then need to aggregate the data. The simple method of majority voting makes predictions for a given task based on the class the most workers have assigned it, <math>\hat{y}_i = sign\{\sum_{j \in N_i} x_{ij}\}</math>.<br />
<br />
== Streaming Bayesian Inference for Crowdsourced Classification (SBIC) ==<br />
The aim of the SBIC algorithm is to estimate the posterior probability, <math>P(y, p | X^t, \theta)</math> where <math>X^t</math> are the observed responses at time <math>t</math> and <math>\theta</math> is our prior. We can then generate predictions <math>\hat{y}^t</math> as the marginal probability over each <math>y_i</math> given <math>X^t</math>, and <math>\theta</math>.<br />
<br />
We factor <math>P(y, p | X^t, \theta) \approx \prod_{I \in M} \mu_i^t (y_i) \prod_{j \in N} \nu_j^t (p_j) </math> where <math>\mu_i^t</math> corresponds to each task and <math>\nu_j^t</math> to each worker.<br />
<br />
We then sequentially optimize the factors <math>\mu^t</math> and <math>\nu^t</math>. We begin by assuming that the worker accuracy follows a beta distribution with parameters <math>\alpha</math> and <math>\beta</math>. Initialize the task factors <math>\mu_i^0(+1) = q</math> and <math>\mu_i^0(-1) = 1 – q</math> for all <math>i</math>.<br />
<br />
When a new label is observed at time <math>t</math>, we update the <math>\nu_j^t</math> of worker <math>j</math>. We then update <math>\mu_i</math>. These updates are given by<br />
<br />
<center><math>\nu_j^t(p_j) \sim Beta(\sum_{i \in M_j^{t - 1}} \mu_i^{t - 1}(x_{ij}) + \alpha, \sum_{i \in M_j^{t - 1}} \mu_i^{t - 1}(-x_{ij}) + \beta) </math></center><br />
<br />
<center><math>\mu_i^t(y_i) \propto \begin{cases} \mu_i^{t - 1}(y_i)\overline{p}_j^t & x_{ij} = y_i \\ \mu_i^{t - 1}(y_i)(1 - \overline{p}_j^t) & x_{ij} \ne y_i \end{cases}</math></center><br />
where <math>\hat{p}_j^t = \frac{\sum_{i \in M_j^{t - 1}} \mu_i^{t - 1}(x_{ij}) + \alpha}{|M_j^{t - 1}| + \alpha + \beta }</math>.<br />
<br />
We choose our predictions to be the maximum <math>\mu_i^t(k) </math> for <math>k= \{-1,1\}</math>.<br />
<br />
Depending on our ordering of labels <math>X</math>, we can select for different applications.<br />
<br />
== Fast SBIC ==<br />
The pseudocode for Fast SBIC is shown below.<br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:FastSBIC.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
As the name implies, the goal of this algorithm is speed. To facilitate this, we leave the order of <math>X</math> unchanged.<br />
<br />
We express <math>\mu_i^t</math> in terms of its log-odds<br />
<center><math>z_i^t = log(\frac{\mu_i^t(+1)}{ \mu_i^t(-1)}) = z_i^{t - 1} + x_{ij} log(\frac{\overline{p}_j^t}{1 - \overline{p}_j^t })</math></center><br />
where <math>z_i^0 = log(\frac{q}{1 - q})</math>.<br />
<br />
The product chain then becomes a summation and removes the need to normalize each <math>\mu_i^t</math>. We use these log-odds to compute worker accuracy,<br />
<br />
<center><math>\overline{p}_j^t = \frac{\sum_{i \in M_j^{t - 1}} sig(x_{ij} z_i^{t-1}) + \alpha}{|M_j^{t - 1}| + \alpha + \beta}</math></center><br />
where <math>sig(z_i^{t-1}) := \frac{1}{1 + exp(-z_i^{t - 1})} = \mu_i^{t - 1}(+1) </math><br />
<br />
The final predictions are made by choosing class <math>\hat{y}_i^T = sign(z_i^T) </math>. We see later that Fast SBIC has similar computational speed to majority voting.<br />
<br />
== Sorted SBIC ==<br />
To increase the accuracy of the SBIC algorithm in exchange for computational efficiency, we run the algorithm in parallel giving labels in different orders. The pseudocode for this algorithm is given below.<br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:SortedSBIC.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
From the general discussion of SBIC, we know that predictions on task <math>i</math> are more accurate toward the end of the collection process. This is a result of observing more data points and having run more updates on <math>\mu_i^t</math> and <math>\nu_j^t</math> to move them further from their prior. This means that task <math>i</math> is predicted more accurately when its corresponding labels are seen closer to the end of the process.<br />
<br />
We take advantage of this property by maintaining a distinct “view” of the log-odds for each task. When a label is observed, we update views for all tasks except the one for which the label was observed. At the end of the collection process, we process skipped labels. When run online, this process must be repeated at every timestep.<br />
<br />
We see that sorted SBIC is slower than Fast SBIC by a factor of M, the number of tasks. However, we can reduce the complexity by viewing <math>s^k<\math> across different tasks in an offline setting when the whole dataset is known in advance.<br />
<br />
== Theoretical Analysis ==<br />
The authors prove an exponential relationship between the error probability and the number of labels per task. The two theorems, for the different sampling regimes, are presented below.<br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:Theorem1.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:Theorem2.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
== Empirical Analysis ==<br />
The purpose of the empirical analysis is to compare SBIC to the existing state of the art algorithms. The SBIC algorithm is run on five real-world binary classification datasets. The results can be found in the table below. Other algorithms in the comparison are, from left to right, majority voting, expectation-maximization, mean-field, belief-propagation, Monte-Carlo sampling, and triangular estimation. <br />
<br />
Firstly, the algorithms are run on synthetic data that meets the assumptions of the underlying one-coin Dawid-Skene model, which allows the authors to compare SBIC's performance empirically with the theoretical results oreviously shown. <br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:RealWorldResults.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
In bold are the best performing algorithms for each dataset. We see that both versions of the SBIC algorithm are competitive, having similar prediction errors to EM, AMF, and MC. All are considered state-of-the-art Bayesian algorithms.<br />
<br />
The figure below shows the average time required to simulate predictions on synthetic data under an uncertainty sampling policy. We see that Fast SBIC is comparable to majority voting and significantly faster than the other algorithms. This speed improvement, coupled with comparable accuracy, makes the Fast SBIC algorithm powerful.<br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:TimeRequirement.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
== Conclusion and Future Research ==<br />
In conclusion, we have seen that SBIC is computationally efficient, accurate in practice, and has theoretical guarantees. The authors intend to extend the algorithm to the multi-class case in the future.<br />
<br />
== Critique ==<br />
In crowdsourcing data, the cost associated with collecting additional labels is not usually prohibitively expensive. As a result, if there is concern over ground-truth, paying for additional data to ensure <math>X</math> is sufficiently dense may be the desired response as opposed to sacrificing ground-truth accuracy. This may result in the SBIC algorithm being less practically useful than intended.<br />
<br />
The paper is tackling the classic problem of aggregating labels in a crowdsourced application, with a focus on speed. The algorithms proposed are fast and simple to implement and come with theoretical guarantees on the bounds for error rates. However, the paper starts with an objective of designing fast label aggregation algorithms for a streaming setting yet doesn’t spend any time motivating the applications in which such algorithms are needed. All the datasets used in the empirical analysis are static datasets therefore for the paper to be useful, the problem considered should be well motivated. It also appears that the output from the algorithm depends on the order in which the data are processed, which may need some should be clarified. Finally, the theoretical results are presented under the assumption that the predictions of the FBI converge to the ground truth, however, the reasoning behind this assumption is not explained.<br />
<br />
The paper assumes that crowdsourcing from human-being is systematic: that is, respondents to the problems would act in similar ways that can be classified into some categories. There are lots of other factors that need to be considered for a human respondent, such as fatigue effects and conflicts of interest. Those factors would seriously jeopardize the validity of the results and the model if they were not carefully designed and taken care of. For example, one formally accurate subject reacts badly to the subject one day generating lots of faulty data, and it would take lots of correct votes to even out the effects. Even in lots of medical experiment that involves human subjects, with rigorous standard and procedure, the result could still be invalid. The trade-off for speed while sacrificing the validity is not wise. <br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
[1] Manino, Tran-Thanh, and Jennings. Streaming Bayesian Inference for Crowdsourced Classification. 33rd Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems, 2019</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=Streaming_Bayesian_Inference_for_Crowdsourced_Classification&diff=45443Streaming Bayesian Inference for Crowdsourced Classification2020-11-21T00:30:30Z<p>B22chang: /* Fast SBIC */</p>
<hr />
<div>Group 4 Paper Presentation Summary<br />
<br />
By Jonathan Chow, Nyle Dharani, Ildar Nasirov<br />
<br />
== Motivation ==<br />
Crowdsourcing can be a useful tool for data generation in classification projects. Often this takes the form of online questions which many respondents will manually answer for payment. One example of this is Amazon's Mechanical Turk. In theory, it is effective in processing high volumes of small tasks that would be expensive to achieve otherwise.<br />
<br />
The primary limitation with this form of acquiring data is that respondents are liable to submit incorrect responses. This results in datasets that are noisy and unreliable.<br />
<br />
However, the integrity of the data is then limited by how well ground-truth can be determined. The primary method for doing so is probabilistic inference. However, current methods are computationally expensive, lack theoretical guarantees, or are limited to specific settings.<br />
<br />
== Dawid-Skene Model for Crowdsourcing ==<br />
The one-coin Dawid-Skene model is popular for contextualizing crowdsourcing problems. For task <math>i</math> in set <math>M</math>, let the ground-truth be the binary <math>y_i = {\pm 1}</math>. We get labels <math>X = {x_{ij}}</math> where <math>j \in N</math> is the index for that worker.<br />
<br />
At each time step <math>t</math>, a worker <math>j = a(t) </math> provides their label for an assigned task <math>i</math> and provides the label<math>x_{ij} = {\pm 1}</math>. We denote responses up to time <math>t</math> via superscript.<br />
<br />
We let <math>x_{ij} = 0</math> if worker <math>j</math> has not completed task <math>i</math>. We assume that <math>P(x_{ij} = y_i) = p_j</math>. This implies that each worker is independent and has equal probability of correct labelling regardless of task. In crowdsourcing the data, we must determine how workers are assigned to tasks. We introduce two methods.<br />
<br />
Under uniform sampling, workers are allocated to tasks such that each task is completed by the same number of workers, rounded to the nearest integer, and no worker completes a task more than once. This policy is given by <center><math>\pi_{uni}(t) = argmin_{i \notin M_{a(t)}^t}\{ | N_i^t | \}.</math></center><br />
<br />
Under uncertainty sampling, we assign more workers to tasks that are less certain. Assuming, we are able to estimate the posterior probability of ground-truth, we can allocate workers to the task with the lowest probability of falling into the predicted class. This policy is given by <center><math>\pi_{us}(t) = argmin_{i \notin M_{a(t)}^t}\{ (max_{k \in \{\pm 1\}} ( P(y_i = k | X^t) ) \}.</math></center><br />
<br />
We then need to aggregate the data. The simple method of majority voting makes predictions for a given task based on the class the most workers have assigned it, <math>\hat{y}_i = sign\{\sum_{j \in N_i} x_{ij}\}</math>.<br />
<br />
== Streaming Bayesian Inference for Crowdsourced Classification (SBIC) ==<br />
The aim of the SBIC algorithm is to estimate the posterior probability, <math>P(y, p | X^t, \theta)</math> where <math>X^t</math> are the observed responses at time <math>t</math> and <math>\theta</math> is our prior. We can then generate predictions <math>\hat{y}^t</math> as the marginal probability over each <math>y_i</math> given <math>X^t</math>, and <math>\theta</math>.<br />
<br />
We factor <math>P(y, p | X^t, \theta) \approx \prod_{I \in M} \mu_i^t (y_i) \prod_{j \in N} \nu_j^t (p_j) </math> where <math>\mu_i^t</math> corresponds to each task and <math>\nu_j^t</math> to each worker.<br />
<br />
We then sequentially optimize the factors <math>\mu^t</math> and <math>\nu^t</math>. We begin by assuming that the worker accuracy follows a beta distribution with parameters <math>\alpha</math> and <math>\beta</math>. Initialize the task factors <math>\mu_i^0(+1) = q</math> and <math>\mu_i^0(-1) = 1 – q</math> for all <math>i</math>.<br />
<br />
When a new label is observed at time <math>t</math>, we update the <math>\nu_j^t</math> of worker <math>j</math>. We then update <math>\mu_i</math>. These updates are given by<br />
<br />
<center><math>\nu_j^t(p_j) \sim Beta(\sum_{i \in M_j^{t - 1}} \mu_i^{t - 1}(x_{ij}) + \alpha, \sum_{i \in M_j^{t - 1}} \mu_i^{t - 1}(-x_{ij}) + \beta) </math></center><br />
<br />
<center><math>\mu_i^t(y_i) \propto \begin{cases} \mu_i^{t - 1}(y_i)\overline{p}_j^t & x_{ij} = y_i \\ \mu_i^{t - 1}(y_i)(1 - \overline{p}_j^t) & x_{ij} \ne y_i \end{cases}</math></center><br />
where <math>\hat{p}_j^t = \frac{\sum_{i \in M_j^{t - 1}} \mu_i^{t - 1}(x_{ij}) + \alpha}{|M_j^{t - 1}| + \alpha + \beta }</math>.<br />
<br />
We choose our predictions to be the maximum <math>\mu_i^t(k) </math> for <math>k= \{-1,1\}</math>.<br />
<br />
Depending on our ordering of labels <math>X</math>, we can select for different applications.<br />
<br />
== Fast SBIC ==<br />
The pseudocode for Fast SBIC is shown below.<br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:FastSBIC.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
As the name implies, the goal of this algorithm is speed. To facilitate this, we leave the order of <math>X</math> unchanged.<br />
<br />
We express <math>\mu_i^t</math> in terms of its log-odds<br />
<center><math>z_i^t = log(\frac{\mu_i^t(+1)}{ \mu_i^t(-1)}) = z_i^{t - 1} + x_{ij} log(\frac{\overline{p}_j^t}{1 - \overline{p}_j^t })</math></center><br />
where <math>z_i^0 = log(\frac{q}{1 - q})</math>.<br />
<br />
The product chain then becomes a summation and removes the need to normalize each <math>\mu_i^t</math>. We use these log-odds to compute worker accuracy,<br />
<br />
<center><math>\overline{p}_j^t = \frac{\sum_{i \in M_j^{t - 1}} sig(x_{ij} z_i^{t-1}) + \alpha}{|M_j^{t - 1}| + \alpha + \beta}</math></center><br />
where <math>sig(z_i^{t-1}) := \frac{1}{1 + exp(-z_i^{t - 1})} = \mu_i^{t - 1}(+1) </math><br />
<br />
The final predictions are made by choosing class <math>\hat{y}_i^T = sign(z_i^T) </math>. We see later that Fast SBIC has similar computational speed to majority voting.<br />
<br />
== Sorted SBIC ==<br />
To increase the accuracy of the SBIC algorithm in exchange for computational efficiency, we run the algorithm in parallel giving labels in different orders. The pseudocode for this algorithm is given below.<br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:SortedSBIC.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
From the general discussion of SBIC, we know that predictions on task <math>i</math> are more accurate toward the end of the collection process. This is a result of observing more data points and having run more updates on <math>\mu_i^t</math> and <math>\nu_j^t</math> to move them further from their prior. This means that task <math>i</math> is predicted more accurately when its corresponding labels are seen closer to the end of the process.<br />
<br />
We take advantage of this property by maintaining a distinct “view” of the log-odds for each task. When a label is observed, we update views for all tasks except the one for which the label was observed. At the end of the collection process, we process skipped labels. When run online, this process must be repeated at every timestep.<br />
<br />
We see that sorted SBIC is slower than Fast SBIC by a factor of M, the number of tasks.<br />
<br />
== Theoretical Analysis ==<br />
The authors prove an exponential relationship between the error probability and the number of labels per task. The two theorems, for the different sampling regimes, are presented below.<br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:Theorem1.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:Theorem2.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
== Empirical Analysis ==<br />
The purpose of the empirical analysis is to compare SBIC to the existing state of the art algorithms. The SBIC algorithm is run on five real-world binary classification datasets. The results can be found in the table below. Other algorithms in the comparison are, from left to right, majority voting, expectation-maximization, mean-field, belief-propagation, Monte-Carlo sampling, and triangular estimation. <br />
<br />
Firstly, the algorithms are run on synthetic data that meets the assumptions of the underlying one-coin Dawid-Skene model, which allows the authors to compare SBIC's performance empirically with the theoretical results oreviously shown. <br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:RealWorldResults.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
In bold are the best performing algorithms for each dataset. We see that both versions of the SBIC algorithm are competitive, having similar prediction errors to EM, AMF, and MC. All are considered state-of-the-art Bayesian algorithms.<br />
<br />
The figure below shows the average time required to simulate predictions on synthetic data under an uncertainty sampling policy. We see that Fast SBIC is comparable to majority voting and significantly faster than the other algorithms. This speed improvement, coupled with comparable accuracy, makes the Fast SBIC algorithm powerful.<br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:TimeRequirement.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
== Conclusion and Future Research ==<br />
In conclusion, we have seen that SBIC is computationally efficient, accurate in practice, and has theoretical guarantees. The authors intend to extend the algorithm to the multi-class case in the future.<br />
<br />
== Critique ==<br />
In crowdsourcing data, the cost associated with collecting additional labels is not usually prohibitively expensive. As a result, if there is concern over ground-truth, paying for additional data to ensure <math>X</math> is sufficiently dense may be the desired response as opposed to sacrificing ground-truth accuracy. This may result in the SBIC algorithm being less practically useful than intended.<br />
<br />
The paper is tackling the classic problem of aggregating labels in a crowdsourced application, with a focus on speed. The algorithms proposed are fast and simple to implement and come with theoretical guarantees on the bounds for error rates. However, the paper starts with an objective of designing fast label aggregation algorithms for a streaming setting yet doesn’t spend any time motivating the applications in which such algorithms are needed. All the datasets used in the empirical analysis are static datasets therefore for the paper to be useful, the problem considered should be well motivated. It also appears that the output from the algorithm depends on the order in which the data are processed, which may need some should be clarified. Finally, the theoretical results are presented under the assumption that the predictions of the FBI converge to the ground truth, however, the reasoning behind this assumption is not explained.<br />
<br />
The paper assumes that crowdsourcing from human-being is systematic: that is, respondents to the problems would act in similar ways that can be classified into some categories. There are lots of other factors that need to be considered for a human respondent, such as fatigue effects and conflicts of interest. Those factors would seriously jeopardize the validity of the results and the model if they were not carefully designed and taken care of. For example, one formally accurate subject reacts badly to the subject one day generating lots of faulty data, and it would take lots of correct votes to even out the effects. Even in lots of medical experiment that involves human subjects, with rigorous standard and procedure, the result could still be invalid. The trade-off for speed while sacrificing the validity is not wise. <br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
[1] Manino, Tran-Thanh, and Jennings. Streaming Bayesian Inference for Crowdsourced Classification. 33rd Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems, 2019</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=Streaming_Bayesian_Inference_for_Crowdsourced_Classification&diff=45442Streaming Bayesian Inference for Crowdsourced Classification2020-11-21T00:29:35Z<p>B22chang: /* Streaming Bayesian Inference for Crowdsourced Classification (SBIC) */</p>
<hr />
<div>Group 4 Paper Presentation Summary<br />
<br />
By Jonathan Chow, Nyle Dharani, Ildar Nasirov<br />
<br />
== Motivation ==<br />
Crowdsourcing can be a useful tool for data generation in classification projects. Often this takes the form of online questions which many respondents will manually answer for payment. One example of this is Amazon's Mechanical Turk. In theory, it is effective in processing high volumes of small tasks that would be expensive to achieve otherwise.<br />
<br />
The primary limitation with this form of acquiring data is that respondents are liable to submit incorrect responses. This results in datasets that are noisy and unreliable.<br />
<br />
However, the integrity of the data is then limited by how well ground-truth can be determined. The primary method for doing so is probabilistic inference. However, current methods are computationally expensive, lack theoretical guarantees, or are limited to specific settings.<br />
<br />
== Dawid-Skene Model for Crowdsourcing ==<br />
The one-coin Dawid-Skene model is popular for contextualizing crowdsourcing problems. For task <math>i</math> in set <math>M</math>, let the ground-truth be the binary <math>y_i = {\pm 1}</math>. We get labels <math>X = {x_{ij}}</math> where <math>j \in N</math> is the index for that worker.<br />
<br />
At each time step <math>t</math>, a worker <math>j = a(t) </math> provides their label for an assigned task <math>i</math> and provides the label<math>x_{ij} = {\pm 1}</math>. We denote responses up to time <math>t</math> via superscript.<br />
<br />
We let <math>x_{ij} = 0</math> if worker <math>j</math> has not completed task <math>i</math>. We assume that <math>P(x_{ij} = y_i) = p_j</math>. This implies that each worker is independent and has equal probability of correct labelling regardless of task. In crowdsourcing the data, we must determine how workers are assigned to tasks. We introduce two methods.<br />
<br />
Under uniform sampling, workers are allocated to tasks such that each task is completed by the same number of workers, rounded to the nearest integer, and no worker completes a task more than once. This policy is given by <center><math>\pi_{uni}(t) = argmin_{i \notin M_{a(t)}^t}\{ | N_i^t | \}.</math></center><br />
<br />
Under uncertainty sampling, we assign more workers to tasks that are less certain. Assuming, we are able to estimate the posterior probability of ground-truth, we can allocate workers to the task with the lowest probability of falling into the predicted class. This policy is given by <center><math>\pi_{us}(t) = argmin_{i \notin M_{a(t)}^t}\{ (max_{k \in \{\pm 1\}} ( P(y_i = k | X^t) ) \}.</math></center><br />
<br />
We then need to aggregate the data. The simple method of majority voting makes predictions for a given task based on the class the most workers have assigned it, <math>\hat{y}_i = sign\{\sum_{j \in N_i} x_{ij}\}</math>.<br />
<br />
== Streaming Bayesian Inference for Crowdsourced Classification (SBIC) ==<br />
The aim of the SBIC algorithm is to estimate the posterior probability, <math>P(y, p | X^t, \theta)</math> where <math>X^t</math> are the observed responses at time <math>t</math> and <math>\theta</math> is our prior. We can then generate predictions <math>\hat{y}^t</math> as the marginal probability over each <math>y_i</math> given <math>X^t</math>, and <math>\theta</math>.<br />
<br />
We factor <math>P(y, p | X^t, \theta) \approx \prod_{I \in M} \mu_i^t (y_i) \prod_{j \in N} \nu_j^t (p_j) </math> where <math>\mu_i^t</math> corresponds to each task and <math>\nu_j^t</math> to each worker.<br />
<br />
We then sequentially optimize the factors <math>\mu^t</math> and <math>\nu^t</math>. We begin by assuming that the worker accuracy follows a beta distribution with parameters <math>\alpha</math> and <math>\beta</math>. Initialize the task factors <math>\mu_i^0(+1) = q</math> and <math>\mu_i^0(-1) = 1 – q</math> for all <math>i</math>.<br />
<br />
When a new label is observed at time <math>t</math>, we update the <math>\nu_j^t</math> of worker <math>j</math>. We then update <math>\mu_i</math>. These updates are given by<br />
<br />
<center><math>\nu_j^t(p_j) \sim Beta(\sum_{i \in M_j^{t - 1}} \mu_i^{t - 1}(x_{ij}) + \alpha, \sum_{i \in M_j^{t - 1}} \mu_i^{t - 1}(-x_{ij}) + \beta) </math></center><br />
<br />
<center><math>\mu_i^t(y_i) \propto \begin{cases} \mu_i^{t - 1}(y_i)\overline{p}_j^t & x_{ij} = y_i \\ \mu_i^{t - 1}(y_i)(1 - \overline{p}_j^t) & x_{ij} \ne y_i \end{cases}</math></center><br />
where <math>\hat{p}_j^t = \frac{\sum_{i \in M_j^{t - 1}} \mu_i^{t - 1}(x_{ij}) + \alpha}{|M_j^{t - 1}| + \alpha + \beta }</math>.<br />
<br />
We choose our predictions to be the maximum <math>\mu_i^t(k) </math> for <math>k= \{-1,1\}</math>.<br />
<br />
Depending on our ordering of labels <math>X</math>, we can select for different applications.<br />
<br />
== Fast SBIC ==<br />
The pseudocode for Fast SBIC is shown below.<br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:FastSBIC.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
As the name implies, the goal of this algorithm is speed. To facilitate this, we leave the order of <math>X</math> unchanged.<br />
<br />
We express <math>\mu_i^t</math> in terms of its log-odds<br />
<center><math>z_i^t = log(\frac{\mu_i^t(+1)}{ \mu_i^t(-1)}) = z_i^{t - 1} + x_{ij} log(\frac{\overline{p}_j^t}{1 - \overline{p}_j^t })</math></center><br />
where <math>x_i^0 = log(\frac{q}{1 - q})</math>.<br />
<br />
The product chain then becomes a summation and removes the need to normalize each <math>\mu_i^t</math>. We use these log-odds to compute worker accuracy,<br />
<br />
<center><math>\overline{p}_j^t = \frac{\sum_{i \in M_j^{t - 1}} sig(x_{ij} z_i^{t-1}) + \alpha}{|M_j^{t - 1}| + \alpha + \beta}</math></center><br />
where <math>sig(z_i^{t-1}) := \frac{1}{1 + exp(-z_i^{t - 1})} = \mu_i^{t - 1}(+1) </math><br />
<br />
The final predictions are made by choosing class <math>\hat{y}_i^T = sign(z_i^T) </math>. We see later that Fast SBIC has similar computational speed to majority voting.<br />
<br />
== Sorted SBIC ==<br />
To increase the accuracy of the SBIC algorithm in exchange for computational efficiency, we run the algorithm in parallel giving labels in different orders. The pseudocode for this algorithm is given below.<br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:SortedSBIC.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
From the general discussion of SBIC, we know that predictions on task <math>i</math> are more accurate toward the end of the collection process. This is a result of observing more data points and having run more updates on <math>\mu_i^t</math> and <math>\nu_j^t</math> to move them further from their prior. This means that task <math>i</math> is predicted more accurately when its corresponding labels are seen closer to the end of the process.<br />
<br />
We take advantage of this property by maintaining a distinct “view” of the log-odds for each task. When a label is observed, we update views for all tasks except the one for which the label was observed. At the end of the collection process, we process skipped labels. When run online, this process must be repeated at every timestep.<br />
<br />
We see that sorted SBIC is slower than Fast SBIC by a factor of M, the number of tasks.<br />
<br />
== Theoretical Analysis ==<br />
The authors prove an exponential relationship between the error probability and the number of labels per task. The two theorems, for the different sampling regimes, are presented below.<br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:Theorem1.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:Theorem2.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
== Empirical Analysis ==<br />
The purpose of the empirical analysis is to compare SBIC to the existing state of the art algorithms. The SBIC algorithm is run on five real-world binary classification datasets. The results can be found in the table below. Other algorithms in the comparison are, from left to right, majority voting, expectation-maximization, mean-field, belief-propagation, Monte-Carlo sampling, and triangular estimation. <br />
<br />
Firstly, the algorithms are run on synthetic data that meets the assumptions of the underlying one-coin Dawid-Skene model, which allows the authors to compare SBIC's performance empirically with the theoretical results oreviously shown. <br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:RealWorldResults.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
In bold are the best performing algorithms for each dataset. We see that both versions of the SBIC algorithm are competitive, having similar prediction errors to EM, AMF, and MC. All are considered state-of-the-art Bayesian algorithms.<br />
<br />
The figure below shows the average time required to simulate predictions on synthetic data under an uncertainty sampling policy. We see that Fast SBIC is comparable to majority voting and significantly faster than the other algorithms. This speed improvement, coupled with comparable accuracy, makes the Fast SBIC algorithm powerful.<br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:TimeRequirement.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
== Conclusion and Future Research ==<br />
In conclusion, we have seen that SBIC is computationally efficient, accurate in practice, and has theoretical guarantees. The authors intend to extend the algorithm to the multi-class case in the future.<br />
<br />
== Critique ==<br />
In crowdsourcing data, the cost associated with collecting additional labels is not usually prohibitively expensive. As a result, if there is concern over ground-truth, paying for additional data to ensure <math>X</math> is sufficiently dense may be the desired response as opposed to sacrificing ground-truth accuracy. This may result in the SBIC algorithm being less practically useful than intended.<br />
<br />
The paper is tackling the classic problem of aggregating labels in a crowdsourced application, with a focus on speed. The algorithms proposed are fast and simple to implement and come with theoretical guarantees on the bounds for error rates. However, the paper starts with an objective of designing fast label aggregation algorithms for a streaming setting yet doesn’t spend any time motivating the applications in which such algorithms are needed. All the datasets used in the empirical analysis are static datasets therefore for the paper to be useful, the problem considered should be well motivated. It also appears that the output from the algorithm depends on the order in which the data are processed, which may need some should be clarified. Finally, the theoretical results are presented under the assumption that the predictions of the FBI converge to the ground truth, however, the reasoning behind this assumption is not explained.<br />
<br />
The paper assumes that crowdsourcing from human-being is systematic: that is, respondents to the problems would act in similar ways that can be classified into some categories. There are lots of other factors that need to be considered for a human respondent, such as fatigue effects and conflicts of interest. Those factors would seriously jeopardize the validity of the results and the model if they were not carefully designed and taken care of. For example, one formally accurate subject reacts badly to the subject one day generating lots of faulty data, and it would take lots of correct votes to even out the effects. Even in lots of medical experiment that involves human subjects, with rigorous standard and procedure, the result could still be invalid. The trade-off for speed while sacrificing the validity is not wise. <br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
[1] Manino, Tran-Thanh, and Jennings. Streaming Bayesian Inference for Crowdsourced Classification. 33rd Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems, 2019</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=Streaming_Bayesian_Inference_for_Crowdsourced_Classification&diff=45441Streaming Bayesian Inference for Crowdsourced Classification2020-11-21T00:25:25Z<p>B22chang: /* Dawid-Skene Model for Crowdsourcing */</p>
<hr />
<div>Group 4 Paper Presentation Summary<br />
<br />
By Jonathan Chow, Nyle Dharani, Ildar Nasirov<br />
<br />
== Motivation ==<br />
Crowdsourcing can be a useful tool for data generation in classification projects. Often this takes the form of online questions which many respondents will manually answer for payment. One example of this is Amazon's Mechanical Turk. In theory, it is effective in processing high volumes of small tasks that would be expensive to achieve otherwise.<br />
<br />
The primary limitation with this form of acquiring data is that respondents are liable to submit incorrect responses. This results in datasets that are noisy and unreliable.<br />
<br />
However, the integrity of the data is then limited by how well ground-truth can be determined. The primary method for doing so is probabilistic inference. However, current methods are computationally expensive, lack theoretical guarantees, or are limited to specific settings.<br />
<br />
== Dawid-Skene Model for Crowdsourcing ==<br />
The one-coin Dawid-Skene model is popular for contextualizing crowdsourcing problems. For task <math>i</math> in set <math>M</math>, let the ground-truth be the binary <math>y_i = {\pm 1}</math>. We get labels <math>X = {x_{ij}}</math> where <math>j \in N</math> is the index for that worker.<br />
<br />
At each time step <math>t</math>, a worker <math>j = a(t) </math> provides their label for an assigned task <math>i</math> and provides the label<math>x_{ij} = {\pm 1}</math>. We denote responses up to time <math>t</math> via superscript.<br />
<br />
We let <math>x_{ij} = 0</math> if worker <math>j</math> has not completed task <math>i</math>. We assume that <math>P(x_{ij} = y_i) = p_j</math>. This implies that each worker is independent and has equal probability of correct labelling regardless of task. In crowdsourcing the data, we must determine how workers are assigned to tasks. We introduce two methods.<br />
<br />
Under uniform sampling, workers are allocated to tasks such that each task is completed by the same number of workers, rounded to the nearest integer, and no worker completes a task more than once. This policy is given by <center><math>\pi_{uni}(t) = argmin_{i \notin M_{a(t)}^t}\{ | N_i^t | \}.</math></center><br />
<br />
Under uncertainty sampling, we assign more workers to tasks that are less certain. Assuming, we are able to estimate the posterior probability of ground-truth, we can allocate workers to the task with the lowest probability of falling into the predicted class. This policy is given by <center><math>\pi_{us}(t) = argmin_{i \notin M_{a(t)}^t}\{ (max_{k \in \{\pm 1\}} ( P(y_i = k | X^t) ) \}.</math></center><br />
<br />
We then need to aggregate the data. The simple method of majority voting makes predictions for a given task based on the class the most workers have assigned it, <math>\hat{y}_i = sign\{\sum_{j \in N_i} x_{ij}\}</math>.<br />
<br />
== Streaming Bayesian Inference for Crowdsourced Classification (SBIC) ==<br />
The aim of the SBIC algorithm is to estimate the posterior probability, <math>P(y, p | X^t, \theta)</math> where <math>X^t</math> are the observed responses at time <math>t</math> and <math>\theta</math> is our prior. We can then generate predictions <math>\hat{y}^t</math> as the marginal probability over each <math>y_i</math> given <math>X^t</math>, and <math>\theta</math>.<br />
<br />
We factor <math>P(y, p | X^t, \theta) \approx \prod_{I \in M} \mu_i^t (y_i) \prod_{j \in N} \nu_j^t (p_j) </math> where <math>\mu_i^t</math> corresponds to each task and <math>\nu_j^t</math> to each worker.<br />
<br />
We then sequentially optimize the factors <math>\mu^t</math> and <math>\nu^t</math>. We begin by assuming that the worker accuracy follows a beta distribution with parameters <math>\alpha</math> and <math>\beta</math>. Initialize the task factors <math>\mu_i^0(+1) = q</math> and <math>\mu_i^0(-1) = 1 – q</math> for all <math>i</math>.<br />
<br />
When a new label is observed at time <math>t</math>, we update the <math>\nu_j^t</math> of worker <math>j</math>. We then update <math>\mu_i</math>. These updates are given by<br />
<br />
<center><math>\nu_j^t(p_j) \sim Beta(\sum_{i \in M_j^{t - 1}} \mu_i^{t - 1}(x_{ij}) + \alpha, \sum_{i \in M_j^{t - 1}} \mu_i^{t - 1}(-x_{ij}) + \beta) </math></center><br />
<br />
<center><math>\mu_i^t(y_i) \propto \begin{cases} \mu_i^{t - 1}(y_i)\overline{p}_j^t & x_{ij} = y_i \\ \mu_i^{t - 1}(y_i)(1 - \overline{p}_j^t) & x_{ij} \ne y_i \end{cases}</math></center><br />
where <math>\overline{p}_j^t = \frac{\sum_{i \in M_j^{t - 1}} \mu_i^{t - 1}(x_{ij}) + \alpha}{|M_j^{t - 1}| + \alpha + \beta }</math>.<br />
<br />
We choose our predictions to be the maximum <math>\mu_i^t(k) </math> for <math>k= \{-1,1\}</math>.<br />
<br />
Depending on our ordering of labels <math>X</math>, we can select for different applications.<br />
<br />
== Fast SBIC ==<br />
The pseudocode for Fast SBIC is shown below.<br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:FastSBIC.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
As the name implies, the goal of this algorithm is speed. To facilitate this, we leave the order of <math>X</math> unchanged.<br />
<br />
We express <math>\mu_i^t</math> in terms of its log-odds<br />
<center><math>z_i^t = log(\frac{\mu_i^t(+1)}{ \mu_i^t(-1)}) = z_i^{t - 1} + x_{ij} log(\frac{\overline{p}_j^t}{1 - \overline{p}_j^t })</math></center><br />
where <math>x_i^0 = log(\frac{q}{1 - q})</math>.<br />
<br />
The product chain then becomes a summation and removes the need to normalize each <math>\mu_i^t</math>. We use these log-odds to compute worker accuracy,<br />
<br />
<center><math>\overline{p}_j^t = \frac{\sum_{i \in M_j^{t - 1}} sig(x_{ij} z_i^{t-1}) + \alpha}{|M_j^{t - 1}| + \alpha + \beta}</math></center><br />
where <math>sig(z_i^{t-1}) := \frac{1}{1 + exp(-z_i^{t - 1})} = \mu_i^{t - 1}(+1) </math><br />
<br />
The final predictions are made by choosing class <math>\hat{y}_i^T = sign(z_i^T) </math>. We see later that Fast SBIC has similar computational speed to majority voting.<br />
<br />
== Sorted SBIC ==<br />
To increase the accuracy of the SBIC algorithm in exchange for computational efficiency, we run the algorithm in parallel giving labels in different orders. The pseudocode for this algorithm is given below.<br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:SortedSBIC.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
From the general discussion of SBIC, we know that predictions on task <math>i</math> are more accurate toward the end of the collection process. This is a result of observing more data points and having run more updates on <math>\mu_i^t</math> and <math>\nu_j^t</math> to move them further from their prior. This means that task <math>i</math> is predicted more accurately when its corresponding labels are seen closer to the end of the process.<br />
<br />
We take advantage of this property by maintaining a distinct “view” of the log-odds for each task. When a label is observed, we update views for all tasks except the one for which the label was observed. At the end of the collection process, we process skipped labels. When run online, this process must be repeated at every timestep.<br />
<br />
We see that sorted SBIC is slower than Fast SBIC by a factor of M, the number of tasks.<br />
<br />
== Theoretical Analysis ==<br />
The authors prove an exponential relationship between the error probability and the number of labels per task. The two theorems, for the different sampling regimes, are presented below.<br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:Theorem1.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:Theorem2.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
== Empirical Analysis ==<br />
The purpose of the empirical analysis is to compare SBIC to the existing state of the art algorithms. The SBIC algorithm is run on five real-world binary classification datasets. The results can be found in the table below. Other algorithms in the comparison are, from left to right, majority voting, expectation-maximization, mean-field, belief-propagation, Monte-Carlo sampling, and triangular estimation. <br />
<br />
Firstly, the algorithms are run on synthetic data that meets the assumptions of the underlying one-coin Dawid-Skene model, which allows the authors to compare SBIC's performance empirically with the theoretical results oreviously shown. <br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:RealWorldResults.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
In bold are the best performing algorithms for each dataset. We see that both versions of the SBIC algorithm are competitive, having similar prediction errors to EM, AMF, and MC. All are considered state-of-the-art Bayesian algorithms.<br />
<br />
The figure below shows the average time required to simulate predictions on synthetic data under an uncertainty sampling policy. We see that Fast SBIC is comparable to majority voting and significantly faster than the other algorithms. This speed improvement, coupled with comparable accuracy, makes the Fast SBIC algorithm powerful.<br />
<br />
<center>[[Image:TimeRequirement.png|800px|]]</center><br />
<br />
== Conclusion and Future Research ==<br />
In conclusion, we have seen that SBIC is computationally efficient, accurate in practice, and has theoretical guarantees. The authors intend to extend the algorithm to the multi-class case in the future.<br />
<br />
== Critique ==<br />
In crowdsourcing data, the cost associated with collecting additional labels is not usually prohibitively expensive. As a result, if there is concern over ground-truth, paying for additional data to ensure <math>X</math> is sufficiently dense may be the desired response as opposed to sacrificing ground-truth accuracy. This may result in the SBIC algorithm being less practically useful than intended.<br />
<br />
The paper is tackling the classic problem of aggregating labels in a crowdsourced application, with a focus on speed. The algorithms proposed are fast and simple to implement and come with theoretical guarantees on the bounds for error rates. However, the paper starts with an objective of designing fast label aggregation algorithms for a streaming setting yet doesn’t spend any time motivating the applications in which such algorithms are needed. All the datasets used in the empirical analysis are static datasets therefore for the paper to be useful, the problem considered should be well motivated. It also appears that the output from the algorithm depends on the order in which the data are processed, which may need some should be clarified. Finally, the theoretical results are presented under the assumption that the predictions of the FBI converge to the ground truth, however, the reasoning behind this assumption is not explained.<br />
<br />
The paper assumes that crowdsourcing from human-being is systematic: that is, respondents to the problems would act in similar ways that can be classified into some categories. There are lots of other factors that need to be considered for a human respondent, such as fatigue effects and conflicts of interest. Those factors would seriously jeopardize the validity of the results and the model if they were not carefully designed and taken care of. For example, one formally accurate subject reacts badly to the subject one day generating lots of faulty data, and it would take lots of correct votes to even out the effects. Even in lots of medical experiment that involves human subjects, with rigorous standard and procedure, the result could still be invalid. The trade-off for speed while sacrificing the validity is not wise. <br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
[1] Manino, Tran-Thanh, and Jennings. Streaming Bayesian Inference for Crowdsourced Classification. 33rd Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems, 2019</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=Influenza_Forecasting_Framework_based_on_Gaussian_Processes&diff=45440Influenza Forecasting Framework based on Gaussian Processes2020-11-21T00:17:58Z<p>B22chang: /* Gaussian Process Regression */</p>
<hr />
<div><br />
== Abstract ==<br />
<br />
This paper presents a novel framework for seasonal epidemic forecasting using Gaussian process regression. Resulting retrospective forecasts, trained on a subset of the publicly available CDC influenza-like-illness (ILI) data-set, outperformed four state-of-the-art models when compared using the official CDC scoring rule (log-score).<br />
<br />
== Background ==<br />
<br />
Each year, the seasonal influenza epidemic affects public health at a massive scale, resulting in 38 million cases, 400 000 hospitalizations, and 22 000 deaths in the United States in 2019-2020 alone [1]. Given this, reliable forecasts of future influenza development are invaluable, because they allow for improved public health policies and informed resource development and allocation. Many statistical methods have been developed to use data from the CDC and other real-time data sources, such as Google Trends to forecast influenza activities.<br />
<br />
Given the process of data collection and surveillance lag, accurate statistics for influenza warning systems are often delayed by some margin of time, making early prediction imperative. However, there are challenges in long-term epidemic forecasting. First, the temporal dependency is hard to capture with short-term input data. Without manually added seasonal trends, most statistical models fail to provide high accuracy. Second, the influence from other locations has not been exhaustively explored with limited data input. Spatio-temporal effects would therefore require adequate data sources to achieve good performance.<br />
<br />
== Related Work ==<br />
<br />
Given the value of epidemic forecasts, the CDC regularly publishes ILI data and has funded a seasonal ILI forecasting challenge. This challenge has to lead to four states of the art models in the field; MSS, a physical susceptible-infected-recovered model with assumed linear noise [4]; SARIMA, a framework based on seasonal auto-regressive moving average models [2]; and LinEns, an ensemble of three linear regression models.<br />
<br />
== Motivation ==<br />
<br />
It has been shown that LinEns forecasts outperform the other frameworks on the ILI data-set. However, this framework assumes a deterministic relationship between the epidemic week and its case count, which does not reflect the stochastic nature of the trend. Therefore, it is natural to ask whether a similar framework that assumes a stochastic relationship between these variables would provide better performance. This motivated the development of the proposed Gaussian process regression framework and the subsequent performance comparison to the benchmark models.<br />
<br />
== Gaussian Process Regression ==<br />
<br />
A Gaussian process is specified with a mean function and a kernel function. Besides, the mean and the variance function of the Gaussian process is defined by:<br />
\[\mu(x) = k(x, X)^T(K_n+\sigma^2I)^{-1}Y\]<br />
\[\sigma(x) = k^{**}(x,x)-k(x,X)^T(K_n+\sigma^2I)^{-1}k(x,X)\]<br />
where <math>K_n</math> is the covariance matrix and for the kernel, it is being specified that it will use the Gaussian kernel.<br />
<br />
Consider the following set up: let <math>X = [\mathbf{x}_1,\ldots,\mathbf{x}_n]</math> <math>(d\times n)</math> be your training data, <math>\mathbf{y} = [y_1,y_2,\ldots,y_n]^T</math> be your noisy observations where <math>y_i = f(\mathbf{x}_i) + \epsilon_i</math>, <math>(\epsilon_i:i = 1,\ldots,n)</math> i.i.d. <math>\sim \mathcal{N}(0,{\sigma}^2)</math>, and <math>f</math> is the trend we are trying to model (by <math>\hat{f}</math>). Let <math>\mathbf{x}^*</math> <math>(d\times 1)</math> be your test data point, and <math>\hat{y} = \hat{f}(\mathbf{x}^*)</math> be your predicted outcome.<br />
<br />
<br />
Instead of assuming a deterministic form of <math>f</math>, and thus of <math>\mathbf{y}</math> and <math>\hat{y}</math> (as classical linear regression would, for example), Gaussian process regression assumes <math>f</math> is stochastic. More precisely, <math>\mathbf{y}</math> and <math>\hat{y}</math> are assumed to have a joint prior distribution. Indeed, we have <br />
<br />
$$<br />
(\mathbf{y},\hat{y}) \sim \mathcal{N}(0,\Sigma(X,\mathbf{x}^*))<br />
$$<br />
<br />
where <math>\Sigma(X,\mathbf{x}^*)</math> is a matrix of covariances dependent on some kernel function <math>k</math>. In this paper, the kernel function is assumed to be Gaussian and takes the form <br />
<br />
$$<br />
k(\mathbf{x}_i,\mathbf{x}_j) = \sigma^2\exp(-\frac{1}{2}(\mathbf{x}_i-\mathbf{x}^j)^T\Sigma(\mathbf{x}_i-\mathbf{x}_j)).<br />
$$<br />
<br />
It is important to note that this gives a joint prior distribution of '''functions''' ('''Fig. 1''' left, grey curves). <br />
<br />
By restricting this distribution to contain only those functions ('''Fig. 1''' right, grey curves) that agree with the observed data points <math>\mathbf{x}</math> ('''Fig. 1''' right, solid black) we obtain the posterior distribution for <math>\hat{y}</math> which has the form<br />
<br />
$$<br />
p(\hat{y} | \mathbf{x}^*, X, \mathbf{y}) \sim \mathcal{N}(\mu(\mathbf{x}^*,X,\mathbf{y}),\sigma(\mathbf{x}^*,X))<br />
$$<br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"> [[File:GPRegression.png|500px]] </div><br />
<br />
<div align="center">'''Figure 1. Gaussian process regression''': Select the functions from your joint prior distribution (left, grey curves) with mean <math>0</math> (left, bold line) that agree with the observed data points (right, black bullets). These form your posterior distribution (right, grey curves) with mean <math>\mu(\mathbf{x})</math> (right, bold line). Red triangle helps compare the two images (location marker) [3]. </div><br />
<br />
== Data-set ==<br />
<br />
Let <math>d_j^i</math> denote the number of epidemic cases recorded in week <math>j</math> of season <math>i</math>, and let <math>j^*</math> and <math>i^*</math> denote the current week and season, respectively. The ILI data-set contains <math>d_j^i</math> for all previous weeks and seasons, up to the current season with a 1-3 week publishing delay. Note that a season refers to the time of year when the epidemic is prevalent (e.g. an influenza season lasts 30 weeks and contains the last 10 weeks of year k, and the first 20 weeks of year k+1). The goal is to predict <math>\hat{y}_T = \hat{f}_T(x^*) = d^{i^*}_{j* + T}</math> where <math>T, \;(T = 1,\ldots,K)</math> is the target week (how many weeks into the future that you want to predict).<br />
<br />
To do this, a design matrix <math>X</math> is constructed where each element <math>X_{ji} = d_j^i</math> corresponds to the number of cases in week (row) j of season (column) i. The training outcomes <math>y_{i,T}, i = 1,\ldots,n</math> correspond to the number of cases that were observed in target week <math>T,\; (T = 1,\ldots,K)</math> of season <math>i, (i = 1,\ldots,n)</math>.<br />
<br />
== Proposed Framework ==<br />
<br />
To compute <math>\hat{y}</math>, the following algorithm is executed. <br />
<br />
<ol><br />
<br />
<li> Let <math>J \subseteq \{j^*-4 \leq j \leq j^*\}</math> (subset of possible weeks).<br />
<br />
<li> Assemble the Training Set <math>\{X_J, \mathbf{y}_{T,J}\}</math> <br />
<br />
<li> Train the Gaussian process<br />
<br />
<li> Calculate the '''distribution''' of <math>\hat{y}_{T,J}</math> using <math>p(\hat{y}_{T,J} | \mathbf{x}^*, X_J, \mathbf{y}_{T,J}) \sim \mathcal{N}(\mu(\mathbf{x}^*,X,\mathbf{y}_{T,J}),\sigma(\mathbf{x}^*,X_J))</math><br />
<br />
<li> Set <math>\hat{y}_{T,J} =\mu(x^*,X_J,\mathbf{y}_{T,J})</math><br />
<br />
<li> Repeat steps 2-5 for all sets of weeks <math>J</math><br />
<br />
<li> Determine the best 3 performing sets J (on the 2010/11 and 2011/12 validation sets)<br />
<br />
<li> Calculate the ensemble forecast by averaging the 3 best performing predictive distribution densities i.e. <math>\hat{y}_T = \frac{1}{3}\sum_{k=1}^3 \hat{y}_{T,J_{best}}</math><br />
<br />
</ol><br />
<br />
== Results ==<br />
<br />
To demonstrate the accuracy of their results, retrospective forecasting was done on the ILI data-set. In other words, the Gaussian process model was trained to assume a previous season (2012/13) was the current season. In this fashion, the forecast could be compared to the already observed true outcome. <br />
<br />
To produce a forecast for the entire 2012/13 season, 30 Gaussian processes were trained (each influenza season has 30 test points <math>\mathbf{x^*}</math>) and a curve connecting the predicted outputs <math>y_T = \hat{f}(\mathbf{x^*)}</math> was plotted ('''Fig.2''', blue line). As shown in '''Fig.2''', this forecast (blue line) was reliable for both 1 (left) and 3 (right) week targets, given that the 95% prediction interval ('''Fig.2''', purple shaded) contained the true values ('''Fig.2''', red x's) 95% of the time.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"> [[File:ResultsOne.png|600px]] </div><br />
<br />
<div align="center">'''Figure 2. Retrospective forecasts and their uncertainty''': One week retrospective influenza forecasting for two targets (T = 1, 3). Red x’s are the true observed values, and blue lines and purple shaded areas represent point forecasts and 95% prediction intervals, respectively. </div><br />
<br />
<br />
Moreover, as shown in '''Fig.3''', the novel Gaussian process regression framework outperformed all state-of-the-art models, included LinEns, for four different targets <math>(T = 1,\ldots, 4)</math>, when compared using the official CDC scoring criterion ''log-score''. Log-score describes the logarithmic probability of the forecast being within an interval around the true value. <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"> [[File:ComparisonNew.png|600px]] </div><br />
<br />
<div align="center">'''Figure 3. Average log-score gain of proposed framework''': Each bar shows the mean seasonal log-score gain of the proposed framework vs. the given state-of-the-art model, and each panel corresponds to a different target week <math> T = 1,...4 </math>. </div><br />
<br />
== Conclusion ==<br />
<br />
This paper presented a novel framework for forecasting seasonal epidemics using Gaussian process regression that outperformed multiple state-of-the-art forecasting methods on the CDC's ILI data-set. Hence, this work may play a key role in future influenza forecasting and as result, the improvement of public health policies and resource allocation.<br />
<br />
== Critique ==<br />
<br />
The proposed framework provides a computationally efficient method to forecast any seasonal epidemic count data that is easily extendable to multiple target types. In particular; one can compute key parameters such as the peak infection incidence (<math>\hat{y} = max_{0 \leq j \leq 52} d^i_j </math>), the timing of the peak infection incidence (<math>\hat{y} = argmax_{0 \leq j \leq 52} d^i_j</math>) and the final epidemic size of a season (<math>\hat{y} = \sum_{j=1}^{52} d^i_j</math>). However, given it is not a physical model, it cannot provide insights on parameters describing the disease spread. Moreover, the framework requires training data and hence, is not applicable for non-seasonal epidemics.<br />
<br />
This paper provides a state of the art approach for forecasting epidemics. It would have been interesting to see other types of kernels being used, such as a periodic kernel (<math>k(x, x') = \sigma^2 \exp{-\frac{2 \sin^2 (\pi|x-x'|/p}{l^2}} </math>), as intuitively epidemics are known to have waves within seasons. This may have resulted in better-calibrated uncertainty estimates as well.<br />
<br />
It is mentioned that the the framework might not be good for non-seasonal epidemics because it requires training data, given that the COVID-19 pandemic comes in multiple waves and we have enough data from the first wave and second wave, we might be able to use this framework to predict the third wave and possibly the fourth one as well. It'd be interesting to see this forecasting framework being trained using the data from the first and second wave of COVID-19.<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
<br />
[1] Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States - 2019–2020 Influenza Season. (2020). Retrieved November 16, 2020, from https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2019-2020.html<br />
<br />
[2] Ray, E. L., Sakrejda, K., Lauer, S. A., Johansson, M. A.,and Reich, N. G. (2017).Infectious disease prediction with kernel conditional densityestimation.Statistics in Medicine, 36(30):4908–4929.<br />
<br />
[3] Schulz, E., Speekenbrink, M., and Krause, A. (2017).A tutorial on gaussian process regression with a focus onexploration-exploitation scenarios.bioRxiv.<br />
<br />
[4] Zimmer, C., Leuba, S. I., Cohen, T., and Yaesoubi, R.(2019).Accurate quantification of uncertainty in epidemicparameter estimates and predictions using stochasticcompartmental models.Statistical Methods in Medical Research,28(12):3591–3608.PMID: 30428780.</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=Influenza_Forecasting_Framework_based_on_Gaussian_Processes&diff=45439Influenza Forecasting Framework based on Gaussian Processes2020-11-21T00:17:11Z<p>B22chang: /* Gaussian Process Regression */</p>
<hr />
<div><br />
== Abstract ==<br />
<br />
This paper presents a novel framework for seasonal epidemic forecasting using Gaussian process regression. Resulting retrospective forecasts, trained on a subset of the publicly available CDC influenza-like-illness (ILI) data-set, outperformed four state-of-the-art models when compared using the official CDC scoring rule (log-score).<br />
<br />
== Background ==<br />
<br />
Each year, the seasonal influenza epidemic affects public health at a massive scale, resulting in 38 million cases, 400 000 hospitalizations, and 22 000 deaths in the United States in 2019-2020 alone [1]. Given this, reliable forecasts of future influenza development are invaluable, because they allow for improved public health policies and informed resource development and allocation. Many statistical methods have been developed to use data from the CDC and other real-time data sources, such as Google Trends to forecast influenza activities.<br />
<br />
Given the process of data collection and surveillance lag, accurate statistics for influenza warning systems are often delayed by some margin of time, making early prediction imperative. However, there are challenges in long-term epidemic forecasting. First, the temporal dependency is hard to capture with short-term input data. Without manually added seasonal trends, most statistical models fail to provide high accuracy. Second, the influence from other locations has not been exhaustively explored with limited data input. Spatio-temporal effects would therefore require adequate data sources to achieve good performance.<br />
<br />
== Related Work ==<br />
<br />
Given the value of epidemic forecasts, the CDC regularly publishes ILI data and has funded a seasonal ILI forecasting challenge. This challenge has to lead to four states of the art models in the field; MSS, a physical susceptible-infected-recovered model with assumed linear noise [4]; SARIMA, a framework based on seasonal auto-regressive moving average models [2]; and LinEns, an ensemble of three linear regression models.<br />
<br />
== Motivation ==<br />
<br />
It has been shown that LinEns forecasts outperform the other frameworks on the ILI data-set. However, this framework assumes a deterministic relationship between the epidemic week and its case count, which does not reflect the stochastic nature of the trend. Therefore, it is natural to ask whether a similar framework that assumes a stochastic relationship between these variables would provide better performance. This motivated the development of the proposed Gaussian process regression framework and the subsequent performance comparison to the benchmark models.<br />
<br />
== Gaussian Process Regression ==<br />
<br />
A Gaussian process is specified with a mean function and a kernel function. Besides, the mean and the variance function of the Gaussian process is defined by:<br />
\[\mu(x) = k(x, X)^T(K_n+\sigma^2I)^{-1}Y\]<br />
\[\sigma(x) = k^{**}(x,x)-k(x,X)^T(K_n+\sigma^2I)^{-1}k(x,X)\]<br />
where $ K_n $ is the covariance matrix and for the kernel, it is being specified that it will use the Gaussian kernel.<br />
<br />
Consider the following set up: let <math>X = [\mathbf{x}_1,\ldots,\mathbf{x}_n]</math> <math>(d\times n)</math> be your training data, <math>\mathbf{y} = [y_1,y_2,\ldots,y_n]^T</math> be your noisy observations where <math>y_i = f(\mathbf{x}_i) + \epsilon_i</math>, <math>(\epsilon_i:i = 1,\ldots,n)</math> i.i.d. <math>\sim \mathcal{N}(0,{\sigma}^2)</math>, and <math>f</math> is the trend we are trying to model (by <math>\hat{f}</math>). Let <math>\mathbf{x}^*</math> <math>(d\times 1)</math> be your test data point, and <math>\hat{y} = \hat{f}(\mathbf{x}^*)</math> be your predicted outcome.<br />
<br />
<br />
Instead of assuming a deterministic form of <math>f</math>, and thus of <math>\mathbf{y}</math> and <math>\hat{y}</math> (as classical linear regression would, for example), Gaussian process regression assumes <math>f</math> is stochastic. More precisely, <math>\mathbf{y}</math> and <math>\hat{y}</math> are assumed to have a joint prior distribution. Indeed, we have <br />
<br />
$$<br />
(\mathbf{y},\hat{y}) \sim \mathcal{N}(0,\Sigma(X,\mathbf{x}^*))<br />
$$<br />
<br />
where <math>\Sigma(X,\mathbf{x}^*)</math> is a matrix of covariances dependent on some kernel function <math>k</math>. In this paper, the kernel function is assumed to be Gaussian and takes the form <br />
<br />
$$<br />
k(\mathbf{x}_i,\mathbf{x}_j) = \sigma^2\exp(-\frac{1}{2}(\mathbf{x}_i-\mathbf{x}^j)^T\Sigma(\mathbf{x}_i-\mathbf{x}_j)).<br />
$$<br />
<br />
It is important to note that this gives a joint prior distribution of '''functions''' ('''Fig. 1''' left, grey curves). <br />
<br />
By restricting this distribution to contain only those functions ('''Fig. 1''' right, grey curves) that agree with the observed data points <math>\mathbf{x}</math> ('''Fig. 1''' right, solid black) we obtain the posterior distribution for <math>\hat{y}</math> which has the form<br />
<br />
$$<br />
p(\hat{y} | \mathbf{x}^*, X, \mathbf{y}) \sim \mathcal{N}(\mu(\mathbf{x}^*,X,\mathbf{y}),\sigma(\mathbf{x}^*,X))<br />
$$<br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"> [[File:GPRegression.png|500px]] </div><br />
<br />
<div align="center">'''Figure 1. Gaussian process regression''': Select the functions from your joint prior distribution (left, grey curves) with mean <math>0</math> (left, bold line) that agree with the observed data points (right, black bullets). These form your posterior distribution (right, grey curves) with mean <math>\mu(\mathbf{x})</math> (right, bold line). Red triangle helps compare the two images (location marker) [3]. </div><br />
<br />
== Data-set ==<br />
<br />
Let <math>d_j^i</math> denote the number of epidemic cases recorded in week <math>j</math> of season <math>i</math>, and let <math>j^*</math> and <math>i^*</math> denote the current week and season, respectively. The ILI data-set contains <math>d_j^i</math> for all previous weeks and seasons, up to the current season with a 1-3 week publishing delay. Note that a season refers to the time of year when the epidemic is prevalent (e.g. an influenza season lasts 30 weeks and contains the last 10 weeks of year k, and the first 20 weeks of year k+1). The goal is to predict <math>\hat{y}_T = \hat{f}_T(x^*) = d^{i^*}_{j* + T}</math> where <math>T, \;(T = 1,\ldots,K)</math> is the target week (how many weeks into the future that you want to predict).<br />
<br />
To do this, a design matrix <math>X</math> is constructed where each element <math>X_{ji} = d_j^i</math> corresponds to the number of cases in week (row) j of season (column) i. The training outcomes <math>y_{i,T}, i = 1,\ldots,n</math> correspond to the number of cases that were observed in target week <math>T,\; (T = 1,\ldots,K)</math> of season <math>i, (i = 1,\ldots,n)</math>.<br />
<br />
== Proposed Framework ==<br />
<br />
To compute <math>\hat{y}</math>, the following algorithm is executed. <br />
<br />
<ol><br />
<br />
<li> Let <math>J \subseteq \{j^*-4 \leq j \leq j^*\}</math> (subset of possible weeks).<br />
<br />
<li> Assemble the Training Set <math>\{X_J, \mathbf{y}_{T,J}\}</math> <br />
<br />
<li> Train the Gaussian process<br />
<br />
<li> Calculate the '''distribution''' of <math>\hat{y}_{T,J}</math> using <math>p(\hat{y}_{T,J} | \mathbf{x}^*, X_J, \mathbf{y}_{T,J}) \sim \mathcal{N}(\mu(\mathbf{x}^*,X,\mathbf{y}_{T,J}),\sigma(\mathbf{x}^*,X_J))</math><br />
<br />
<li> Set <math>\hat{y}_{T,J} =\mu(x^*,X_J,\mathbf{y}_{T,J})</math><br />
<br />
<li> Repeat steps 2-5 for all sets of weeks <math>J</math><br />
<br />
<li> Determine the best 3 performing sets J (on the 2010/11 and 2011/12 validation sets)<br />
<br />
<li> Calculate the ensemble forecast by averaging the 3 best performing predictive distribution densities i.e. <math>\hat{y}_T = \frac{1}{3}\sum_{k=1}^3 \hat{y}_{T,J_{best}}</math><br />
<br />
</ol><br />
<br />
== Results ==<br />
<br />
To demonstrate the accuracy of their results, retrospective forecasting was done on the ILI data-set. In other words, the Gaussian process model was trained to assume a previous season (2012/13) was the current season. In this fashion, the forecast could be compared to the already observed true outcome. <br />
<br />
To produce a forecast for the entire 2012/13 season, 30 Gaussian processes were trained (each influenza season has 30 test points <math>\mathbf{x^*}</math>) and a curve connecting the predicted outputs <math>y_T = \hat{f}(\mathbf{x^*)}</math> was plotted ('''Fig.2''', blue line). As shown in '''Fig.2''', this forecast (blue line) was reliable for both 1 (left) and 3 (right) week targets, given that the 95% prediction interval ('''Fig.2''', purple shaded) contained the true values ('''Fig.2''', red x's) 95% of the time.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"> [[File:ResultsOne.png|600px]] </div><br />
<br />
<div align="center">'''Figure 2. Retrospective forecasts and their uncertainty''': One week retrospective influenza forecasting for two targets (T = 1, 3). Red x’s are the true observed values, and blue lines and purple shaded areas represent point forecasts and 95% prediction intervals, respectively. </div><br />
<br />
<br />
Moreover, as shown in '''Fig.3''', the novel Gaussian process regression framework outperformed all state-of-the-art models, included LinEns, for four different targets <math>(T = 1,\ldots, 4)</math>, when compared using the official CDC scoring criterion ''log-score''. Log-score describes the logarithmic probability of the forecast being within an interval around the true value. <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"> [[File:ComparisonNew.png|600px]] </div><br />
<br />
<div align="center">'''Figure 3. Average log-score gain of proposed framework''': Each bar shows the mean seasonal log-score gain of the proposed framework vs. the given state-of-the-art model, and each panel corresponds to a different target week <math> T = 1,...4 </math>. </div><br />
<br />
== Conclusion ==<br />
<br />
This paper presented a novel framework for forecasting seasonal epidemics using Gaussian process regression that outperformed multiple state-of-the-art forecasting methods on the CDC's ILI data-set. Hence, this work may play a key role in future influenza forecasting and as result, the improvement of public health policies and resource allocation.<br />
<br />
== Critique ==<br />
<br />
The proposed framework provides a computationally efficient method to forecast any seasonal epidemic count data that is easily extendable to multiple target types. In particular; one can compute key parameters such as the peak infection incidence (<math>\hat{y} = max_{0 \leq j \leq 52} d^i_j </math>), the timing of the peak infection incidence (<math>\hat{y} = argmax_{0 \leq j \leq 52} d^i_j</math>) and the final epidemic size of a season (<math>\hat{y} = \sum_{j=1}^{52} d^i_j</math>). However, given it is not a physical model, it cannot provide insights on parameters describing the disease spread. Moreover, the framework requires training data and hence, is not applicable for non-seasonal epidemics.<br />
<br />
This paper provides a state of the art approach for forecasting epidemics. It would have been interesting to see other types of kernels being used, such as a periodic kernel (<math>k(x, x') = \sigma^2 \exp{-\frac{2 \sin^2 (\pi|x-x'|/p}{l^2}} </math>), as intuitively epidemics are known to have waves within seasons. This may have resulted in better-calibrated uncertainty estimates as well.<br />
<br />
It is mentioned that the the framework might not be good for non-seasonal epidemics because it requires training data, given that the COVID-19 pandemic comes in multiple waves and we have enough data from the first wave and second wave, we might be able to use this framework to predict the third wave and possibly the fourth one as well. It'd be interesting to see this forecasting framework being trained using the data from the first and second wave of COVID-19.<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
<br />
[1] Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States - 2019–2020 Influenza Season. (2020). Retrieved November 16, 2020, from https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2019-2020.html<br />
<br />
[2] Ray, E. L., Sakrejda, K., Lauer, S. A., Johansson, M. A.,and Reich, N. G. (2017).Infectious disease prediction with kernel conditional densityestimation.Statistics in Medicine, 36(30):4908–4929.<br />
<br />
[3] Schulz, E., Speekenbrink, M., and Krause, A. (2017).A tutorial on gaussian process regression with a focus onexploration-exploitation scenarios.bioRxiv.<br />
<br />
[4] Zimmer, C., Leuba, S. I., Cohen, T., and Yaesoubi, R.(2019).Accurate quantification of uncertainty in epidemicparameter estimates and predictions using stochasticcompartmental models.Statistical Methods in Medical Research,28(12):3591–3608.PMID: 30428780.</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=Influenza_Forecasting_Framework_based_on_Gaussian_Processes&diff=45438Influenza Forecasting Framework based on Gaussian Processes2020-11-21T00:16:28Z<p>B22chang: /* Gaussian Process Regression */</p>
<hr />
<div><br />
== Abstract ==<br />
<br />
This paper presents a novel framework for seasonal epidemic forecasting using Gaussian process regression. Resulting retrospective forecasts, trained on a subset of the publicly available CDC influenza-like-illness (ILI) data-set, outperformed four state-of-the-art models when compared using the official CDC scoring rule (log-score).<br />
<br />
== Background ==<br />
<br />
Each year, the seasonal influenza epidemic affects public health at a massive scale, resulting in 38 million cases, 400 000 hospitalizations, and 22 000 deaths in the United States in 2019-2020 alone [1]. Given this, reliable forecasts of future influenza development are invaluable, because they allow for improved public health policies and informed resource development and allocation. Many statistical methods have been developed to use data from the CDC and other real-time data sources, such as Google Trends to forecast influenza activities.<br />
<br />
Given the process of data collection and surveillance lag, accurate statistics for influenza warning systems are often delayed by some margin of time, making early prediction imperative. However, there are challenges in long-term epidemic forecasting. First, the temporal dependency is hard to capture with short-term input data. Without manually added seasonal trends, most statistical models fail to provide high accuracy. Second, the influence from other locations has not been exhaustively explored with limited data input. Spatio-temporal effects would therefore require adequate data sources to achieve good performance.<br />
<br />
== Related Work ==<br />
<br />
Given the value of epidemic forecasts, the CDC regularly publishes ILI data and has funded a seasonal ILI forecasting challenge. This challenge has to lead to four states of the art models in the field; MSS, a physical susceptible-infected-recovered model with assumed linear noise [4]; SARIMA, a framework based on seasonal auto-regressive moving average models [2]; and LinEns, an ensemble of three linear regression models.<br />
<br />
== Motivation ==<br />
<br />
It has been shown that LinEns forecasts outperform the other frameworks on the ILI data-set. However, this framework assumes a deterministic relationship between the epidemic week and its case count, which does not reflect the stochastic nature of the trend. Therefore, it is natural to ask whether a similar framework that assumes a stochastic relationship between these variables would provide better performance. This motivated the development of the proposed Gaussian process regression framework and the subsequent performance comparison to the benchmark models.<br />
<br />
== Gaussian Process Regression ==<br />
<br />
A Gaussian process is specified with a mean function and a kernel function. Besides, the mean and the variance function of the Gaussian process is defined by:<br />
\[\mu(x) = k(x, X)^T(K_n+\sigma^2I)^{-1}Y\]<br />
\[\sigma(x) = k^{**}(x,x)-k(x,X)^T(K_n+\sigma^2I)^{-1}k(x,X)\]<br />
where $K_n$ is the covariance matrix and for the kernel, it is being specified that it will use the Gaussian kernel.<br />
<br />
Consider the following set up: let <math>X = [\mathbf{x}_1,\ldots,\mathbf{x}_n]</math> <math>(d\times n)</math> be your training data, <math>\mathbf{y} = [y_1,y_2,\ldots,y_n]^T</math> be your noisy observations where <math>y_i = f(\mathbf{x}_i) + \epsilon_i</math>, <math>(\epsilon_i:i = 1,\ldots,n)</math> i.i.d. <math>\sim \mathcal{N}(0,{\sigma}^2)</math>, and <math>f</math> is the trend we are trying to model (by <math>\hat{f}</math>). Let <math>\mathbf{x}^*</math> <math>(d\times 1)</math> be your test data point, and <math>\hat{y} = \hat{f}(\mathbf{x}^*)</math> be your predicted outcome.<br />
<br />
<br />
Instead of assuming a deterministic form of <math>f</math>, and thus of <math>\mathbf{y}</math> and <math>\hat{y}</math> (as classical linear regression would, for example), Gaussian process regression assumes <math>f</math> is stochastic. More precisely, <math>\mathbf{y}</math> and <math>\hat{y}</math> are assumed to have a joint prior distribution. Indeed, we have <br />
<br />
$$<br />
(\mathbf{y},\hat{y}) \sim \mathcal{N}(0,\Sigma(X,\mathbf{x}^*))<br />
$$<br />
<br />
where <math>\Sigma(X,\mathbf{x}^*)</math> is a matrix of covariances dependent on some kernel function <math>k</math>. In this paper, the kernel function is assumed to be Gaussian and takes the form <br />
<br />
$$<br />
k(\mathbf{x}_i,\mathbf{x}_j) = \sigma^2\exp(-\frac{1}{2}(\mathbf{x}_i-\mathbf{x}^j)^T\Sigma(\mathbf{x}_i-\mathbf{x}_j)).<br />
$$<br />
<br />
It is important to note that this gives a joint prior distribution of '''functions''' ('''Fig. 1''' left, grey curves). <br />
<br />
By restricting this distribution to contain only those functions ('''Fig. 1''' right, grey curves) that agree with the observed data points <math>\mathbf{x}</math> ('''Fig. 1''' right, solid black) we obtain the posterior distribution for <math>\hat{y}</math> which has the form<br />
<br />
$$<br />
p(\hat{y} | \mathbf{x}^*, X, \mathbf{y}) \sim \mathcal{N}(\mu(\mathbf{x}^*,X,\mathbf{y}),\sigma(\mathbf{x}^*,X))<br />
$$<br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"> [[File:GPRegression.png|500px]] </div><br />
<br />
<div align="center">'''Figure 1. Gaussian process regression''': Select the functions from your joint prior distribution (left, grey curves) with mean <math>0</math> (left, bold line) that agree with the observed data points (right, black bullets). These form your posterior distribution (right, grey curves) with mean <math>\mu(\mathbf{x})</math> (right, bold line). Red triangle helps compare the two images (location marker) [3]. </div><br />
<br />
== Data-set ==<br />
<br />
Let <math>d_j^i</math> denote the number of epidemic cases recorded in week <math>j</math> of season <math>i</math>, and let <math>j^*</math> and <math>i^*</math> denote the current week and season, respectively. The ILI data-set contains <math>d_j^i</math> for all previous weeks and seasons, up to the current season with a 1-3 week publishing delay. Note that a season refers to the time of year when the epidemic is prevalent (e.g. an influenza season lasts 30 weeks and contains the last 10 weeks of year k, and the first 20 weeks of year k+1). The goal is to predict <math>\hat{y}_T = \hat{f}_T(x^*) = d^{i^*}_{j* + T}</math> where <math>T, \;(T = 1,\ldots,K)</math> is the target week (how many weeks into the future that you want to predict).<br />
<br />
To do this, a design matrix <math>X</math> is constructed where each element <math>X_{ji} = d_j^i</math> corresponds to the number of cases in week (row) j of season (column) i. The training outcomes <math>y_{i,T}, i = 1,\ldots,n</math> correspond to the number of cases that were observed in target week <math>T,\; (T = 1,\ldots,K)</math> of season <math>i, (i = 1,\ldots,n)</math>.<br />
<br />
== Proposed Framework ==<br />
<br />
To compute <math>\hat{y}</math>, the following algorithm is executed. <br />
<br />
<ol><br />
<br />
<li> Let <math>J \subseteq \{j^*-4 \leq j \leq j^*\}</math> (subset of possible weeks).<br />
<br />
<li> Assemble the Training Set <math>\{X_J, \mathbf{y}_{T,J}\}</math> <br />
<br />
<li> Train the Gaussian process<br />
<br />
<li> Calculate the '''distribution''' of <math>\hat{y}_{T,J}</math> using <math>p(\hat{y}_{T,J} | \mathbf{x}^*, X_J, \mathbf{y}_{T,J}) \sim \mathcal{N}(\mu(\mathbf{x}^*,X,\mathbf{y}_{T,J}),\sigma(\mathbf{x}^*,X_J))</math><br />
<br />
<li> Set <math>\hat{y}_{T,J} =\mu(x^*,X_J,\mathbf{y}_{T,J})</math><br />
<br />
<li> Repeat steps 2-5 for all sets of weeks <math>J</math><br />
<br />
<li> Determine the best 3 performing sets J (on the 2010/11 and 2011/12 validation sets)<br />
<br />
<li> Calculate the ensemble forecast by averaging the 3 best performing predictive distribution densities i.e. <math>\hat{y}_T = \frac{1}{3}\sum_{k=1}^3 \hat{y}_{T,J_{best}}</math><br />
<br />
</ol><br />
<br />
== Results ==<br />
<br />
To demonstrate the accuracy of their results, retrospective forecasting was done on the ILI data-set. In other words, the Gaussian process model was trained to assume a previous season (2012/13) was the current season. In this fashion, the forecast could be compared to the already observed true outcome. <br />
<br />
To produce a forecast for the entire 2012/13 season, 30 Gaussian processes were trained (each influenza season has 30 test points <math>\mathbf{x^*}</math>) and a curve connecting the predicted outputs <math>y_T = \hat{f}(\mathbf{x^*)}</math> was plotted ('''Fig.2''', blue line). As shown in '''Fig.2''', this forecast (blue line) was reliable for both 1 (left) and 3 (right) week targets, given that the 95% prediction interval ('''Fig.2''', purple shaded) contained the true values ('''Fig.2''', red x's) 95% of the time.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"> [[File:ResultsOne.png|600px]] </div><br />
<br />
<div align="center">'''Figure 2. Retrospective forecasts and their uncertainty''': One week retrospective influenza forecasting for two targets (T = 1, 3). Red x’s are the true observed values, and blue lines and purple shaded areas represent point forecasts and 95% prediction intervals, respectively. </div><br />
<br />
<br />
Moreover, as shown in '''Fig.3''', the novel Gaussian process regression framework outperformed all state-of-the-art models, included LinEns, for four different targets <math>(T = 1,\ldots, 4)</math>, when compared using the official CDC scoring criterion ''log-score''. Log-score describes the logarithmic probability of the forecast being within an interval around the true value. <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"> [[File:ComparisonNew.png|600px]] </div><br />
<br />
<div align="center">'''Figure 3. Average log-score gain of proposed framework''': Each bar shows the mean seasonal log-score gain of the proposed framework vs. the given state-of-the-art model, and each panel corresponds to a different target week <math> T = 1,...4 </math>. </div><br />
<br />
== Conclusion ==<br />
<br />
This paper presented a novel framework for forecasting seasonal epidemics using Gaussian process regression that outperformed multiple state-of-the-art forecasting methods on the CDC's ILI data-set. Hence, this work may play a key role in future influenza forecasting and as result, the improvement of public health policies and resource allocation.<br />
<br />
== Critique ==<br />
<br />
The proposed framework provides a computationally efficient method to forecast any seasonal epidemic count data that is easily extendable to multiple target types. In particular; one can compute key parameters such as the peak infection incidence (<math>\hat{y} = max_{0 \leq j \leq 52} d^i_j </math>), the timing of the peak infection incidence (<math>\hat{y} = argmax_{0 \leq j \leq 52} d^i_j</math>) and the final epidemic size of a season (<math>\hat{y} = \sum_{j=1}^{52} d^i_j</math>). However, given it is not a physical model, it cannot provide insights on parameters describing the disease spread. Moreover, the framework requires training data and hence, is not applicable for non-seasonal epidemics.<br />
<br />
This paper provides a state of the art approach for forecasting epidemics. It would have been interesting to see other types of kernels being used, such as a periodic kernel (<math>k(x, x') = \sigma^2 \exp{-\frac{2 \sin^2 (\pi|x-x'|/p}{l^2}} </math>), as intuitively epidemics are known to have waves within seasons. This may have resulted in better-calibrated uncertainty estimates as well.<br />
<br />
It is mentioned that the the framework might not be good for non-seasonal epidemics because it requires training data, given that the COVID-19 pandemic comes in multiple waves and we have enough data from the first wave and second wave, we might be able to use this framework to predict the third wave and possibly the fourth one as well. It'd be interesting to see this forecasting framework being trained using the data from the first and second wave of COVID-19.<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
<br />
[1] Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States - 2019–2020 Influenza Season. (2020). Retrieved November 16, 2020, from https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2019-2020.html<br />
<br />
[2] Ray, E. L., Sakrejda, K., Lauer, S. A., Johansson, M. A.,and Reich, N. G. (2017).Infectious disease prediction with kernel conditional densityestimation.Statistics in Medicine, 36(30):4908–4929.<br />
<br />
[3] Schulz, E., Speekenbrink, M., and Krause, A. (2017).A tutorial on gaussian process regression with a focus onexploration-exploitation scenarios.bioRxiv.<br />
<br />
[4] Zimmer, C., Leuba, S. I., Cohen, T., and Yaesoubi, R.(2019).Accurate quantification of uncertainty in epidemicparameter estimates and predictions using stochasticcompartmental models.Statistical Methods in Medical Research,28(12):3591–3608.PMID: 30428780.</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=Influenza_Forecasting_Framework_based_on_Gaussian_Processes&diff=45437Influenza Forecasting Framework based on Gaussian Processes2020-11-21T00:15:31Z<p>B22chang: /* Gaussian Process Regression */</p>
<hr />
<div><br />
== Abstract ==<br />
<br />
This paper presents a novel framework for seasonal epidemic forecasting using Gaussian process regression. Resulting retrospective forecasts, trained on a subset of the publicly available CDC influenza-like-illness (ILI) data-set, outperformed four state-of-the-art models when compared using the official CDC scoring rule (log-score).<br />
<br />
== Background ==<br />
<br />
Each year, the seasonal influenza epidemic affects public health at a massive scale, resulting in 38 million cases, 400 000 hospitalizations, and 22 000 deaths in the United States in 2019-2020 alone [1]. Given this, reliable forecasts of future influenza development are invaluable, because they allow for improved public health policies and informed resource development and allocation. Many statistical methods have been developed to use data from the CDC and other real-time data sources, such as Google Trends to forecast influenza activities.<br />
<br />
Given the process of data collection and surveillance lag, accurate statistics for influenza warning systems are often delayed by some margin of time, making early prediction imperative. However, there are challenges in long-term epidemic forecasting. First, the temporal dependency is hard to capture with short-term input data. Without manually added seasonal trends, most statistical models fail to provide high accuracy. Second, the influence from other locations has not been exhaustively explored with limited data input. Spatio-temporal effects would therefore require adequate data sources to achieve good performance.<br />
<br />
== Related Work ==<br />
<br />
Given the value of epidemic forecasts, the CDC regularly publishes ILI data and has funded a seasonal ILI forecasting challenge. This challenge has to lead to four states of the art models in the field; MSS, a physical susceptible-infected-recovered model with assumed linear noise [4]; SARIMA, a framework based on seasonal auto-regressive moving average models [2]; and LinEns, an ensemble of three linear regression models.<br />
<br />
== Motivation ==<br />
<br />
It has been shown that LinEns forecasts outperform the other frameworks on the ILI data-set. However, this framework assumes a deterministic relationship between the epidemic week and its case count, which does not reflect the stochastic nature of the trend. Therefore, it is natural to ask whether a similar framework that assumes a stochastic relationship between these variables would provide better performance. This motivated the development of the proposed Gaussian process regression framework and the subsequent performance comparison to the benchmark models.<br />
<br />
== Gaussian Process Regression ==<br />
<br />
A Gaussian process is specified with a mean function and a kernel function. Besides, the mean and the variance function of the Gaussian process is defined by:<br />
\[\mu(x) = k(x, X)^T(K_n+\sigma^2I)^{-1}Y\]<br />
\[\sigma(x) = k^{**}(x,x)-k(x,X)^T(K_n+\sigma^2I)^{-1}k(x,X)\]<br />
where \(K_n\) is the covariance matrix and for the kernel, it is being specified that it will use the Gaussian kernel.<br />
<br />
Consider the following set up: let <math>X = [\mathbf{x}_1,\ldots,\mathbf{x}_n]</math> <math>(d\times n)</math> be your training data, <math>\mathbf{y} = [y_1,y_2,\ldots,y_n]^T</math> be your noisy observations where <math>y_i = f(\mathbf{x}_i) + \epsilon_i</math>, <math>(\epsilon_i:i = 1,\ldots,n)</math> i.i.d. <math>\sim \mathcal{N}(0,{\sigma}^2)</math>, and <math>f</math> is the trend we are trying to model (by <math>\hat{f}</math>). Let <math>\mathbf{x}^*</math> <math>(d\times 1)</math> be your test data point, and <math>\hat{y} = \hat{f}(\mathbf{x}^*)</math> be your predicted outcome.<br />
<br />
<br />
Instead of assuming a deterministic form of <math>f</math>, and thus of <math>\mathbf{y}</math> and <math>\hat{y}</math> (as classical linear regression would, for example), Gaussian process regression assumes <math>f</math> is stochastic. More precisely, <math>\mathbf{y}</math> and <math>\hat{y}</math> are assumed to have a joint prior distribution. Indeed, we have <br />
<br />
$$<br />
(\mathbf{y},\hat{y}) \sim \mathcal{N}(0,\Sigma(X,\mathbf{x}^*))<br />
$$<br />
<br />
where <math>\Sigma(X,\mathbf{x}^*)</math> is a matrix of covariances dependent on some kernel function <math>k</math>. In this paper, the kernel function is assumed to be Gaussian and takes the form <br />
<br />
$$<br />
k(\mathbf{x}_i,\mathbf{x}_j) = \sigma^2\exp(-\frac{1}{2}(\mathbf{x}_i-\mathbf{x}^j)^T\Sigma(\mathbf{x}_i-\mathbf{x}_j)).<br />
$$<br />
<br />
It is important to note that this gives a joint prior distribution of '''functions''' ('''Fig. 1''' left, grey curves). <br />
<br />
By restricting this distribution to contain only those functions ('''Fig. 1''' right, grey curves) that agree with the observed data points <math>\mathbf{x}</math> ('''Fig. 1''' right, solid black) we obtain the posterior distribution for <math>\hat{y}</math> which has the form<br />
<br />
$$<br />
p(\hat{y} | \mathbf{x}^*, X, \mathbf{y}) \sim \mathcal{N}(\mu(\mathbf{x}^*,X,\mathbf{y}),\sigma(\mathbf{x}^*,X))<br />
$$<br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"> [[File:GPRegression.png|500px]] </div><br />
<br />
<div align="center">'''Figure 1. Gaussian process regression''': Select the functions from your joint prior distribution (left, grey curves) with mean <math>0</math> (left, bold line) that agree with the observed data points (right, black bullets). These form your posterior distribution (right, grey curves) with mean <math>\mu(\mathbf{x})</math> (right, bold line). Red triangle helps compare the two images (location marker) [3]. </div><br />
<br />
== Data-set ==<br />
<br />
Let <math>d_j^i</math> denote the number of epidemic cases recorded in week <math>j</math> of season <math>i</math>, and let <math>j^*</math> and <math>i^*</math> denote the current week and season, respectively. The ILI data-set contains <math>d_j^i</math> for all previous weeks and seasons, up to the current season with a 1-3 week publishing delay. Note that a season refers to the time of year when the epidemic is prevalent (e.g. an influenza season lasts 30 weeks and contains the last 10 weeks of year k, and the first 20 weeks of year k+1). The goal is to predict <math>\hat{y}_T = \hat{f}_T(x^*) = d^{i^*}_{j* + T}</math> where <math>T, \;(T = 1,\ldots,K)</math> is the target week (how many weeks into the future that you want to predict).<br />
<br />
To do this, a design matrix <math>X</math> is constructed where each element <math>X_{ji} = d_j^i</math> corresponds to the number of cases in week (row) j of season (column) i. The training outcomes <math>y_{i,T}, i = 1,\ldots,n</math> correspond to the number of cases that were observed in target week <math>T,\; (T = 1,\ldots,K)</math> of season <math>i, (i = 1,\ldots,n)</math>.<br />
<br />
== Proposed Framework ==<br />
<br />
To compute <math>\hat{y}</math>, the following algorithm is executed. <br />
<br />
<ol><br />
<br />
<li> Let <math>J \subseteq \{j^*-4 \leq j \leq j^*\}</math> (subset of possible weeks).<br />
<br />
<li> Assemble the Training Set <math>\{X_J, \mathbf{y}_{T,J}\}</math> <br />
<br />
<li> Train the Gaussian process<br />
<br />
<li> Calculate the '''distribution''' of <math>\hat{y}_{T,J}</math> using <math>p(\hat{y}_{T,J} | \mathbf{x}^*, X_J, \mathbf{y}_{T,J}) \sim \mathcal{N}(\mu(\mathbf{x}^*,X,\mathbf{y}_{T,J}),\sigma(\mathbf{x}^*,X_J))</math><br />
<br />
<li> Set <math>\hat{y}_{T,J} =\mu(x^*,X_J,\mathbf{y}_{T,J})</math><br />
<br />
<li> Repeat steps 2-5 for all sets of weeks <math>J</math><br />
<br />
<li> Determine the best 3 performing sets J (on the 2010/11 and 2011/12 validation sets)<br />
<br />
<li> Calculate the ensemble forecast by averaging the 3 best performing predictive distribution densities i.e. <math>\hat{y}_T = \frac{1}{3}\sum_{k=1}^3 \hat{y}_{T,J_{best}}</math><br />
<br />
</ol><br />
<br />
== Results ==<br />
<br />
To demonstrate the accuracy of their results, retrospective forecasting was done on the ILI data-set. In other words, the Gaussian process model was trained to assume a previous season (2012/13) was the current season. In this fashion, the forecast could be compared to the already observed true outcome. <br />
<br />
To produce a forecast for the entire 2012/13 season, 30 Gaussian processes were trained (each influenza season has 30 test points <math>\mathbf{x^*}</math>) and a curve connecting the predicted outputs <math>y_T = \hat{f}(\mathbf{x^*)}</math> was plotted ('''Fig.2''', blue line). As shown in '''Fig.2''', this forecast (blue line) was reliable for both 1 (left) and 3 (right) week targets, given that the 95% prediction interval ('''Fig.2''', purple shaded) contained the true values ('''Fig.2''', red x's) 95% of the time.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"> [[File:ResultsOne.png|600px]] </div><br />
<br />
<div align="center">'''Figure 2. Retrospective forecasts and their uncertainty''': One week retrospective influenza forecasting for two targets (T = 1, 3). Red x’s are the true observed values, and blue lines and purple shaded areas represent point forecasts and 95% prediction intervals, respectively. </div><br />
<br />
<br />
Moreover, as shown in '''Fig.3''', the novel Gaussian process regression framework outperformed all state-of-the-art models, included LinEns, for four different targets <math>(T = 1,\ldots, 4)</math>, when compared using the official CDC scoring criterion ''log-score''. Log-score describes the logarithmic probability of the forecast being within an interval around the true value. <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"> [[File:ComparisonNew.png|600px]] </div><br />
<br />
<div align="center">'''Figure 3. Average log-score gain of proposed framework''': Each bar shows the mean seasonal log-score gain of the proposed framework vs. the given state-of-the-art model, and each panel corresponds to a different target week <math> T = 1,...4 </math>. </div><br />
<br />
== Conclusion ==<br />
<br />
This paper presented a novel framework for forecasting seasonal epidemics using Gaussian process regression that outperformed multiple state-of-the-art forecasting methods on the CDC's ILI data-set. Hence, this work may play a key role in future influenza forecasting and as result, the improvement of public health policies and resource allocation.<br />
<br />
== Critique ==<br />
<br />
The proposed framework provides a computationally efficient method to forecast any seasonal epidemic count data that is easily extendable to multiple target types. In particular; one can compute key parameters such as the peak infection incidence (<math>\hat{y} = max_{0 \leq j \leq 52} d^i_j </math>), the timing of the peak infection incidence (<math>\hat{y} = argmax_{0 \leq j \leq 52} d^i_j</math>) and the final epidemic size of a season (<math>\hat{y} = \sum_{j=1}^{52} d^i_j</math>). However, given it is not a physical model, it cannot provide insights on parameters describing the disease spread. Moreover, the framework requires training data and hence, is not applicable for non-seasonal epidemics.<br />
<br />
This paper provides a state of the art approach for forecasting epidemics. It would have been interesting to see other types of kernels being used, such as a periodic kernel (<math>k(x, x') = \sigma^2 \exp{-\frac{2 \sin^2 (\pi|x-x'|/p}{l^2}} </math>), as intuitively epidemics are known to have waves within seasons. This may have resulted in better-calibrated uncertainty estimates as well.<br />
<br />
It is mentioned that the the framework might not be good for non-seasonal epidemics because it requires training data, given that the COVID-19 pandemic comes in multiple waves and we have enough data from the first wave and second wave, we might be able to use this framework to predict the third wave and possibly the fourth one as well. It'd be interesting to see this forecasting framework being trained using the data from the first and second wave of COVID-19.<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
<br />
[1] Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States - 2019–2020 Influenza Season. (2020). Retrieved November 16, 2020, from https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2019-2020.html<br />
<br />
[2] Ray, E. L., Sakrejda, K., Lauer, S. A., Johansson, M. A.,and Reich, N. G. (2017).Infectious disease prediction with kernel conditional densityestimation.Statistics in Medicine, 36(30):4908–4929.<br />
<br />
[3] Schulz, E., Speekenbrink, M., and Krause, A. (2017).A tutorial on gaussian process regression with a focus onexploration-exploitation scenarios.bioRxiv.<br />
<br />
[4] Zimmer, C., Leuba, S. I., Cohen, T., and Yaesoubi, R.(2019).Accurate quantification of uncertainty in epidemicparameter estimates and predictions using stochasticcompartmental models.Statistical Methods in Medical Research,28(12):3591–3608.PMID: 30428780.</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=Influenza_Forecasting_Framework_based_on_Gaussian_Processes&diff=45436Influenza Forecasting Framework based on Gaussian Processes2020-11-21T00:14:44Z<p>B22chang: /* Gaussian Process Regression */</p>
<hr />
<div><br />
== Abstract ==<br />
<br />
This paper presents a novel framework for seasonal epidemic forecasting using Gaussian process regression. Resulting retrospective forecasts, trained on a subset of the publicly available CDC influenza-like-illness (ILI) data-set, outperformed four state-of-the-art models when compared using the official CDC scoring rule (log-score).<br />
<br />
== Background ==<br />
<br />
Each year, the seasonal influenza epidemic affects public health at a massive scale, resulting in 38 million cases, 400 000 hospitalizations, and 22 000 deaths in the United States in 2019-2020 alone [1]. Given this, reliable forecasts of future influenza development are invaluable, because they allow for improved public health policies and informed resource development and allocation. Many statistical methods have been developed to use data from the CDC and other real-time data sources, such as Google Trends to forecast influenza activities.<br />
<br />
Given the process of data collection and surveillance lag, accurate statistics for influenza warning systems are often delayed by some margin of time, making early prediction imperative. However, there are challenges in long-term epidemic forecasting. First, the temporal dependency is hard to capture with short-term input data. Without manually added seasonal trends, most statistical models fail to provide high accuracy. Second, the influence from other locations has not been exhaustively explored with limited data input. Spatio-temporal effects would therefore require adequate data sources to achieve good performance.<br />
<br />
== Related Work ==<br />
<br />
Given the value of epidemic forecasts, the CDC regularly publishes ILI data and has funded a seasonal ILI forecasting challenge. This challenge has to lead to four states of the art models in the field; MSS, a physical susceptible-infected-recovered model with assumed linear noise [4]; SARIMA, a framework based on seasonal auto-regressive moving average models [2]; and LinEns, an ensemble of three linear regression models.<br />
<br />
== Motivation ==<br />
<br />
It has been shown that LinEns forecasts outperform the other frameworks on the ILI data-set. However, this framework assumes a deterministic relationship between the epidemic week and its case count, which does not reflect the stochastic nature of the trend. Therefore, it is natural to ask whether a similar framework that assumes a stochastic relationship between these variables would provide better performance. This motivated the development of the proposed Gaussian process regression framework and the subsequent performance comparison to the benchmark models.<br />
<br />
== Gaussian Process Regression ==<br />
<br />
A Gaussian process is specified with a mean function and a kernel function. Besides, the mean and the variance function of the Gaussian process is defined by:<br />
\[\mu(x) = k(x, X)^T(K_n+\sigma^2I)^{-1}Y\]<br />
\[\sigma(x) = k^{**}(x,x)-k(x,X)^T(K_n+\sigma^2I)^{-1}k(x,X)\]<br />
where $$K_n$$ is the covariance matrix and for the kernel, it is being specified that it will use the Gaussian kernel.<br />
<br />
Consider the following set up: let <math>X = [\mathbf{x}_1,\ldots,\mathbf{x}_n]</math> <math>(d\times n)</math> be your training data, <math>\mathbf{y} = [y_1,y_2,\ldots,y_n]^T</math> be your noisy observations where <math>y_i = f(\mathbf{x}_i) + \epsilon_i</math>, <math>(\epsilon_i:i = 1,\ldots,n)</math> i.i.d. <math>\sim \mathcal{N}(0,{\sigma}^2)</math>, and <math>f</math> is the trend we are trying to model (by <math>\hat{f}</math>). Let <math>\mathbf{x}^*</math> <math>(d\times 1)</math> be your test data point, and <math>\hat{y} = \hat{f}(\mathbf{x}^*)</math> be your predicted outcome.<br />
<br />
<br />
Instead of assuming a deterministic form of <math>f</math>, and thus of <math>\mathbf{y}</math> and <math>\hat{y}</math> (as classical linear regression would, for example), Gaussian process regression assumes <math>f</math> is stochastic. More precisely, <math>\mathbf{y}</math> and <math>\hat{y}</math> are assumed to have a joint prior distribution. Indeed, we have <br />
<br />
$$<br />
(\mathbf{y},\hat{y}) \sim \mathcal{N}(0,\Sigma(X,\mathbf{x}^*))<br />
$$<br />
<br />
where <math>\Sigma(X,\mathbf{x}^*)</math> is a matrix of covariances dependent on some kernel function <math>k</math>. In this paper, the kernel function is assumed to be Gaussian and takes the form <br />
<br />
$$<br />
k(\mathbf{x}_i,\mathbf{x}_j) = \sigma^2\exp(-\frac{1}{2}(\mathbf{x}_i-\mathbf{x}^j)^T\Sigma(\mathbf{x}_i-\mathbf{x}_j)).<br />
$$<br />
<br />
It is important to note that this gives a joint prior distribution of '''functions''' ('''Fig. 1''' left, grey curves). <br />
<br />
By restricting this distribution to contain only those functions ('''Fig. 1''' right, grey curves) that agree with the observed data points <math>\mathbf{x}</math> ('''Fig. 1''' right, solid black) we obtain the posterior distribution for <math>\hat{y}</math> which has the form<br />
<br />
$$<br />
p(\hat{y} | \mathbf{x}^*, X, \mathbf{y}) \sim \mathcal{N}(\mu(\mathbf{x}^*,X,\mathbf{y}),\sigma(\mathbf{x}^*,X))<br />
$$<br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"> [[File:GPRegression.png|500px]] </div><br />
<br />
<div align="center">'''Figure 1. Gaussian process regression''': Select the functions from your joint prior distribution (left, grey curves) with mean <math>0</math> (left, bold line) that agree with the observed data points (right, black bullets). These form your posterior distribution (right, grey curves) with mean <math>\mu(\mathbf{x})</math> (right, bold line). Red triangle helps compare the two images (location marker) [3]. </div><br />
<br />
== Data-set ==<br />
<br />
Let <math>d_j^i</math> denote the number of epidemic cases recorded in week <math>j</math> of season <math>i</math>, and let <math>j^*</math> and <math>i^*</math> denote the current week and season, respectively. The ILI data-set contains <math>d_j^i</math> for all previous weeks and seasons, up to the current season with a 1-3 week publishing delay. Note that a season refers to the time of year when the epidemic is prevalent (e.g. an influenza season lasts 30 weeks and contains the last 10 weeks of year k, and the first 20 weeks of year k+1). The goal is to predict <math>\hat{y}_T = \hat{f}_T(x^*) = d^{i^*}_{j* + T}</math> where <math>T, \;(T = 1,\ldots,K)</math> is the target week (how many weeks into the future that you want to predict).<br />
<br />
To do this, a design matrix <math>X</math> is constructed where each element <math>X_{ji} = d_j^i</math> corresponds to the number of cases in week (row) j of season (column) i. The training outcomes <math>y_{i,T}, i = 1,\ldots,n</math> correspond to the number of cases that were observed in target week <math>T,\; (T = 1,\ldots,K)</math> of season <math>i, (i = 1,\ldots,n)</math>.<br />
<br />
== Proposed Framework ==<br />
<br />
To compute <math>\hat{y}</math>, the following algorithm is executed. <br />
<br />
<ol><br />
<br />
<li> Let <math>J \subseteq \{j^*-4 \leq j \leq j^*\}</math> (subset of possible weeks).<br />
<br />
<li> Assemble the Training Set <math>\{X_J, \mathbf{y}_{T,J}\}</math> <br />
<br />
<li> Train the Gaussian process<br />
<br />
<li> Calculate the '''distribution''' of <math>\hat{y}_{T,J}</math> using <math>p(\hat{y}_{T,J} | \mathbf{x}^*, X_J, \mathbf{y}_{T,J}) \sim \mathcal{N}(\mu(\mathbf{x}^*,X,\mathbf{y}_{T,J}),\sigma(\mathbf{x}^*,X_J))</math><br />
<br />
<li> Set <math>\hat{y}_{T,J} =\mu(x^*,X_J,\mathbf{y}_{T,J})</math><br />
<br />
<li> Repeat steps 2-5 for all sets of weeks <math>J</math><br />
<br />
<li> Determine the best 3 performing sets J (on the 2010/11 and 2011/12 validation sets)<br />
<br />
<li> Calculate the ensemble forecast by averaging the 3 best performing predictive distribution densities i.e. <math>\hat{y}_T = \frac{1}{3}\sum_{k=1}^3 \hat{y}_{T,J_{best}}</math><br />
<br />
</ol><br />
<br />
== Results ==<br />
<br />
To demonstrate the accuracy of their results, retrospective forecasting was done on the ILI data-set. In other words, the Gaussian process model was trained to assume a previous season (2012/13) was the current season. In this fashion, the forecast could be compared to the already observed true outcome. <br />
<br />
To produce a forecast for the entire 2012/13 season, 30 Gaussian processes were trained (each influenza season has 30 test points <math>\mathbf{x^*}</math>) and a curve connecting the predicted outputs <math>y_T = \hat{f}(\mathbf{x^*)}</math> was plotted ('''Fig.2''', blue line). As shown in '''Fig.2''', this forecast (blue line) was reliable for both 1 (left) and 3 (right) week targets, given that the 95% prediction interval ('''Fig.2''', purple shaded) contained the true values ('''Fig.2''', red x's) 95% of the time.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"> [[File:ResultsOne.png|600px]] </div><br />
<br />
<div align="center">'''Figure 2. Retrospective forecasts and their uncertainty''': One week retrospective influenza forecasting for two targets (T = 1, 3). Red x’s are the true observed values, and blue lines and purple shaded areas represent point forecasts and 95% prediction intervals, respectively. </div><br />
<br />
<br />
Moreover, as shown in '''Fig.3''', the novel Gaussian process regression framework outperformed all state-of-the-art models, included LinEns, for four different targets <math>(T = 1,\ldots, 4)</math>, when compared using the official CDC scoring criterion ''log-score''. Log-score describes the logarithmic probability of the forecast being within an interval around the true value. <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"> [[File:ComparisonNew.png|600px]] </div><br />
<br />
<div align="center">'''Figure 3. Average log-score gain of proposed framework''': Each bar shows the mean seasonal log-score gain of the proposed framework vs. the given state-of-the-art model, and each panel corresponds to a different target week <math> T = 1,...4 </math>. </div><br />
<br />
== Conclusion ==<br />
<br />
This paper presented a novel framework for forecasting seasonal epidemics using Gaussian process regression that outperformed multiple state-of-the-art forecasting methods on the CDC's ILI data-set. Hence, this work may play a key role in future influenza forecasting and as result, the improvement of public health policies and resource allocation.<br />
<br />
== Critique ==<br />
<br />
The proposed framework provides a computationally efficient method to forecast any seasonal epidemic count data that is easily extendable to multiple target types. In particular; one can compute key parameters such as the peak infection incidence (<math>\hat{y} = max_{0 \leq j \leq 52} d^i_j </math>), the timing of the peak infection incidence (<math>\hat{y} = argmax_{0 \leq j \leq 52} d^i_j</math>) and the final epidemic size of a season (<math>\hat{y} = \sum_{j=1}^{52} d^i_j</math>). However, given it is not a physical model, it cannot provide insights on parameters describing the disease spread. Moreover, the framework requires training data and hence, is not applicable for non-seasonal epidemics.<br />
<br />
This paper provides a state of the art approach for forecasting epidemics. It would have been interesting to see other types of kernels being used, such as a periodic kernel (<math>k(x, x') = \sigma^2 \exp{-\frac{2 \sin^2 (\pi|x-x'|/p}{l^2}} </math>), as intuitively epidemics are known to have waves within seasons. This may have resulted in better-calibrated uncertainty estimates as well.<br />
<br />
It is mentioned that the the framework might not be good for non-seasonal epidemics because it requires training data, given that the COVID-19 pandemic comes in multiple waves and we have enough data from the first wave and second wave, we might be able to use this framework to predict the third wave and possibly the fourth one as well. It'd be interesting to see this forecasting framework being trained using the data from the first and second wave of COVID-19.<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
<br />
[1] Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States - 2019–2020 Influenza Season. (2020). Retrieved November 16, 2020, from https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2019-2020.html<br />
<br />
[2] Ray, E. L., Sakrejda, K., Lauer, S. A., Johansson, M. A.,and Reich, N. G. (2017).Infectious disease prediction with kernel conditional densityestimation.Statistics in Medicine, 36(30):4908–4929.<br />
<br />
[3] Schulz, E., Speekenbrink, M., and Krause, A. (2017).A tutorial on gaussian process regression with a focus onexploration-exploitation scenarios.bioRxiv.<br />
<br />
[4] Zimmer, C., Leuba, S. I., Cohen, T., and Yaesoubi, R.(2019).Accurate quantification of uncertainty in epidemicparameter estimates and predictions using stochasticcompartmental models.Statistical Methods in Medical Research,28(12):3591–3608.PMID: 30428780.</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=Influenza_Forecasting_Framework_based_on_Gaussian_Processes&diff=45435Influenza Forecasting Framework based on Gaussian Processes2020-11-21T00:10:13Z<p>B22chang: /* Gaussian Process Regression */</p>
<hr />
<div><br />
== Abstract ==<br />
<br />
This paper presents a novel framework for seasonal epidemic forecasting using Gaussian process regression. Resulting retrospective forecasts, trained on a subset of the publicly available CDC influenza-like-illness (ILI) data-set, outperformed four state-of-the-art models when compared using the official CDC scoring rule (log-score).<br />
<br />
== Background ==<br />
<br />
Each year, the seasonal influenza epidemic affects public health at a massive scale, resulting in 38 million cases, 400 000 hospitalizations, and 22 000 deaths in the United States in 2019-2020 alone [1]. Given this, reliable forecasts of future influenza development are invaluable, because they allow for improved public health policies and informed resource development and allocation. Many statistical methods have been developed to use data from the CDC and other real-time data sources, such as Google Trends to forecast influenza activities.<br />
<br />
Given the process of data collection and surveillance lag, accurate statistics for influenza warning systems are often delayed by some margin of time, making early prediction imperative. However, there are challenges in long-term epidemic forecasting. First, the temporal dependency is hard to capture with short-term input data. Without manually added seasonal trends, most statistical models fail to provide high accuracy. Second, the influence from other locations has not been exhaustively explored with limited data input. Spatio-temporal effects would therefore require adequate data sources to achieve good performance.<br />
<br />
== Related Work ==<br />
<br />
Given the value of epidemic forecasts, the CDC regularly publishes ILI data and has funded a seasonal ILI forecasting challenge. This challenge has to lead to four states of the art models in the field; MSS, a physical susceptible-infected-recovered model with assumed linear noise [4]; SARIMA, a framework based on seasonal auto-regressive moving average models [2]; and LinEns, an ensemble of three linear regression models.<br />
<br />
== Motivation ==<br />
<br />
It has been shown that LinEns forecasts outperform the other frameworks on the ILI data-set. However, this framework assumes a deterministic relationship between the epidemic week and its case count, which does not reflect the stochastic nature of the trend. Therefore, it is natural to ask whether a similar framework that assumes a stochastic relationship between these variables would provide better performance. This motivated the development of the proposed Gaussian process regression framework and the subsequent performance comparison to the benchmark models.<br />
<br />
== Gaussian Process Regression ==<br />
<br />
A Gaussian process is specified with a mean function and a kernel function. Besides, the mean and the variance function of the Gaussian process is defined by:<br />
\[\mu(x) = k(x, X)^T(K_n+\sigma^2\]<br />
<br />
Consider the following set up: let <math>X = [\mathbf{x}_1,\ldots,\mathbf{x}_n]</math> <math>(d\times n)</math> be your training data, <math>\mathbf{y} = [y_1,y_2,\ldots,y_n]^T</math> be your noisy observations where <math>y_i = f(\mathbf{x}_i) + \epsilon_i</math>, <math>(\epsilon_i:i = 1,\ldots,n)</math> i.i.d. <math>\sim \mathcal{N}(0,{\sigma}^2)</math>, and <math>f</math> is the trend we are trying to model (by <math>\hat{f}</math>). Let <math>\mathbf{x}^*</math> <math>(d\times 1)</math> be your test data point, and <math>\hat{y} = \hat{f}(\mathbf{x}^*)</math> be your predicted outcome.<br />
<br />
<br />
Instead of assuming a deterministic form of <math>f</math>, and thus of <math>\mathbf{y}</math> and <math>\hat{y}</math> (as classical linear regression would, for example), Gaussian process regression assumes <math>f</math> is stochastic. More precisely, <math>\mathbf{y}</math> and <math>\hat{y}</math> are assumed to have a joint prior distribution. Indeed, we have <br />
<br />
$$<br />
(\mathbf{y},\hat{y}) \sim \mathcal{N}(0,\Sigma(X,\mathbf{x}^*))<br />
$$<br />
<br />
where <math>\Sigma(X,\mathbf{x}^*)</math> is a matrix of covariances dependent on some kernel function <math>k</math>. In this paper, the kernel function is assumed to be Gaussian and takes the form <br />
<br />
$$<br />
k(\mathbf{x}_i,\mathbf{x}_j) = \sigma^2\exp(-\frac{1}{2}(\mathbf{x}_i-\mathbf{x}^j)^T\Sigma(\mathbf{x}_i-\mathbf{x}_j)).<br />
$$<br />
<br />
It is important to note that this gives a joint prior distribution of '''functions''' ('''Fig. 1''' left, grey curves). <br />
<br />
By restricting this distribution to contain only those functions ('''Fig. 1''' right, grey curves) that agree with the observed data points <math>\mathbf{x}</math> ('''Fig. 1''' right, solid black) we obtain the posterior distribution for <math>\hat{y}</math> which has the form<br />
<br />
$$<br />
p(\hat{y} | \mathbf{x}^*, X, \mathbf{y}) \sim \mathcal{N}(\mu(\mathbf{x}^*,X,\mathbf{y}),\sigma(\mathbf{x}^*,X))<br />
$$<br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"> [[File:GPRegression.png|500px]] </div><br />
<br />
<div align="center">'''Figure 1. Gaussian process regression''': Select the functions from your joint prior distribution (left, grey curves) with mean <math>0</math> (left, bold line) that agree with the observed data points (right, black bullets). These form your posterior distribution (right, grey curves) with mean <math>\mu(\mathbf{x})</math> (right, bold line). Red triangle helps compare the two images (location marker) [3]. </div><br />
<br />
== Data-set ==<br />
<br />
Let <math>d_j^i</math> denote the number of epidemic cases recorded in week <math>j</math> of season <math>i</math>, and let <math>j^*</math> and <math>i^*</math> denote the current week and season, respectively. The ILI data-set contains <math>d_j^i</math> for all previous weeks and seasons, up to the current season with a 1-3 week publishing delay. Note that a season refers to the time of year when the epidemic is prevalent (e.g. an influenza season lasts 30 weeks and contains the last 10 weeks of year k, and the first 20 weeks of year k+1). The goal is to predict <math>\hat{y}_T = \hat{f}_T(x^*) = d^{i^*}_{j* + T}</math> where <math>T, \;(T = 1,\ldots,K)</math> is the target week (how many weeks into the future that you want to predict).<br />
<br />
To do this, a design matrix <math>X</math> is constructed where each element <math>X_{ji} = d_j^i</math> corresponds to the number of cases in week (row) j of season (column) i. The training outcomes <math>y_{i,T}, i = 1,\ldots,n</math> correspond to the number of cases that were observed in target week <math>T,\; (T = 1,\ldots,K)</math> of season <math>i, (i = 1,\ldots,n)</math>.<br />
<br />
== Proposed Framework ==<br />
<br />
To compute <math>\hat{y}</math>, the following algorithm is executed. <br />
<br />
<ol><br />
<br />
<li> Let <math>J \subseteq \{j^*-4 \leq j \leq j^*\}</math> (subset of possible weeks).<br />
<br />
<li> Assemble the Training Set <math>\{X_J, \mathbf{y}_{T,J}\}</math> <br />
<br />
<li> Train the Gaussian process<br />
<br />
<li> Calculate the '''distribution''' of <math>\hat{y}_{T,J}</math> using <math>p(\hat{y}_{T,J} | \mathbf{x}^*, X_J, \mathbf{y}_{T,J}) \sim \mathcal{N}(\mu(\mathbf{x}^*,X,\mathbf{y}_{T,J}),\sigma(\mathbf{x}^*,X_J))</math><br />
<br />
<li> Set <math>\hat{y}_{T,J} =\mu(x^*,X_J,\mathbf{y}_{T,J})</math><br />
<br />
<li> Repeat steps 2-5 for all sets of weeks <math>J</math><br />
<br />
<li> Determine the best 3 performing sets J (on the 2010/11 and 2011/12 validation sets)<br />
<br />
<li> Calculate the ensemble forecast by averaging the 3 best performing predictive distribution densities i.e. <math>\hat{y}_T = \frac{1}{3}\sum_{k=1}^3 \hat{y}_{T,J_{best}}</math><br />
<br />
</ol><br />
<br />
== Results ==<br />
<br />
To demonstrate the accuracy of their results, retrospective forecasting was done on the ILI data-set. In other words, the Gaussian process model was trained to assume a previous season (2012/13) was the current season. In this fashion, the forecast could be compared to the already observed true outcome. <br />
<br />
To produce a forecast for the entire 2012/13 season, 30 Gaussian processes were trained (each influenza season has 30 test points <math>\mathbf{x^*}</math>) and a curve connecting the predicted outputs <math>y_T = \hat{f}(\mathbf{x^*)}</math> was plotted ('''Fig.2''', blue line). As shown in '''Fig.2''', this forecast (blue line) was reliable for both 1 (left) and 3 (right) week targets, given that the 95% prediction interval ('''Fig.2''', purple shaded) contained the true values ('''Fig.2''', red x's) 95% of the time.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"> [[File:ResultsOne.png|600px]] </div><br />
<br />
<div align="center">'''Figure 2. Retrospective forecasts and their uncertainty''': One week retrospective influenza forecasting for two targets (T = 1, 3). Red x’s are the true observed values, and blue lines and purple shaded areas represent point forecasts and 95% prediction intervals, respectively. </div><br />
<br />
<br />
Moreover, as shown in '''Fig.3''', the novel Gaussian process regression framework outperformed all state-of-the-art models, included LinEns, for four different targets <math>(T = 1,\ldots, 4)</math>, when compared using the official CDC scoring criterion ''log-score''. Log-score describes the logarithmic probability of the forecast being within an interval around the true value. <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"> [[File:ComparisonNew.png|600px]] </div><br />
<br />
<div align="center">'''Figure 3. Average log-score gain of proposed framework''': Each bar shows the mean seasonal log-score gain of the proposed framework vs. the given state-of-the-art model, and each panel corresponds to a different target week <math> T = 1,...4 </math>. </div><br />
<br />
== Conclusion ==<br />
<br />
This paper presented a novel framework for forecasting seasonal epidemics using Gaussian process regression that outperformed multiple state-of-the-art forecasting methods on the CDC's ILI data-set. Hence, this work may play a key role in future influenza forecasting and as result, the improvement of public health policies and resource allocation.<br />
<br />
== Critique ==<br />
<br />
The proposed framework provides a computationally efficient method to forecast any seasonal epidemic count data that is easily extendable to multiple target types. In particular; one can compute key parameters such as the peak infection incidence (<math>\hat{y} = max_{0 \leq j \leq 52} d^i_j </math>), the timing of the peak infection incidence (<math>\hat{y} = argmax_{0 \leq j \leq 52} d^i_j</math>) and the final epidemic size of a season (<math>\hat{y} = \sum_{j=1}^{52} d^i_j</math>). However, given it is not a physical model, it cannot provide insights on parameters describing the disease spread. Moreover, the framework requires training data and hence, is not applicable for non-seasonal epidemics.<br />
<br />
This paper provides a state of the art approach for forecasting epidemics. It would have been interesting to see other types of kernels being used, such as a periodic kernel (<math>k(x, x') = \sigma^2 \exp{-\frac{2 \sin^2 (\pi|x-x'|/p}{l^2}} </math>), as intuitively epidemics are known to have waves within seasons. This may have resulted in better-calibrated uncertainty estimates as well.<br />
<br />
It is mentioned that the the framework might not be good for non-seasonal epidemics because it requires training data, given that the COVID-19 pandemic comes in multiple waves and we have enough data from the first wave and second wave, we might be able to use this framework to predict the third wave and possibly the fourth one as well. It'd be interesting to see this forecasting framework being trained using the data from the first and second wave of COVID-19.<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
<br />
[1] Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States - 2019–2020 Influenza Season. (2020). Retrieved November 16, 2020, from https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2019-2020.html<br />
<br />
[2] Ray, E. L., Sakrejda, K., Lauer, S. A., Johansson, M. A.,and Reich, N. G. (2017).Infectious disease prediction with kernel conditional densityestimation.Statistics in Medicine, 36(30):4908–4929.<br />
<br />
[3] Schulz, E., Speekenbrink, M., and Krause, A. (2017).A tutorial on gaussian process regression with a focus onexploration-exploitation scenarios.bioRxiv.<br />
<br />
[4] Zimmer, C., Leuba, S. I., Cohen, T., and Yaesoubi, R.(2019).Accurate quantification of uncertainty in epidemicparameter estimates and predictions using stochasticcompartmental models.Statistical Methods in Medical Research,28(12):3591–3608.PMID: 30428780.</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=Graph_Structure_of_Neural_Networks&diff=45201Graph Structure of Neural Networks2020-11-17T22:24:57Z<p>B22chang: /* Critique */</p>
<hr />
<div>= Presented By =<br />
<br />
Xiaolan Xu, Robin Wen, Yue Weng, Beizhen Chang<br />
<br />
= Introduction =<br />
<br />
During the study of Neural Networks, it is especially important to build a relation between a neural network’s accuracy and its underlying graph structure.<br />
The natural choice is to use computational graph representation but it has many limitations such as lack of generality and disconnection with biology/neuroscience.<br />
<br />
Thus, we develop a new way of representing a neural network as a graph, which we call a relational graph. Our key insight is to focus on message exchange, rather than just on directed data flow. For example, for a fixed-width fully-connected layer, we can represent one input channel and one output channel together as a single node, and an edge in the relational graph represents the message exchange between the two nodes. Under this formulation, using the appropriate message exchange definition, we show that the relational graph can represent many types of neural network layers.<br />
<br />
We designed WS-flex, as a graph generator that allows us to systematically explore the design space of neural networks. We characterize neural networks by the clustering coefficient and average path length of their relational graphs under the insights of neuroscience.<br />
<br />
= Neural Network as Relational Graph =<br />
<br />
The author proposes the concept of relational graph to study the graphical structure of neural network. Each relational graph is based on an undirected graph <math>G =(V; E)</math>, where <math>V =\{v_1,...,v_n\}</math> is the set of all the nodes, and <math>E \subseteq \{(v_i,v_j)|v_i,v_j\in V\}</math> is the set of all edges that connect nodes. Note that for the graph used here, all nodes have self edges, that is <math>(v_i,v_i)\in E</math>. <br />
<br />
To build a relational graph that captures the message exchange between neurons in the network, we associate various mathematical quantities to the graph <math>G</math>. First, a feature quantity <math>x_v</math> is associated with each node. The quantity <math>x_v</math> might be a scalar, vector or tensor depending on different types of neural networks (see the Table at the end of the section). Then a message function <math>f_{uv}(·)</math> is associated with every edge in the graph. A message function specifically takes a node’s feature as the input and then output a message. An aggregation function <math>{\rm AGG}_v(·)</math> then takes a set of messages (the outputs of message function) and outputs the updated node feature. <br />
<br />
A relation graph is a graph <math>G</math> associated with several rounds of message exchange, which transfrom the fearure quantity <math>x_v</math> with the message function <math>f_{uv}(·)</math> and the aggregation function <math>{\rm AGG}_v(·)</math>. At each round of message exchange, each node sends messages to its neighbors and aggregates incoming messages from its neighbors. Each message is transformed at each edge through the message function, then they are aggregated at each node via the aggregation function. Suppose we have already conducted <math>r-1</math> rounds of message exchange, then the <math>r^{th}</math> round of message exchange for a node <math>v</math> can be described as<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"><math>\mathbf{x}_v^{(r+1)}= {\rm AGG}^{(r)}(\{f_v^{(r)}(\textbf{x}_u^{(r)}), \forall u\in N(v)\})</math></div> <br />
<br />
where <math>\mathbf{x}^{(r+1)}</math> is the feature of of the <math>v</math> node in the relational graph after the <math>r^{th}</math> round of update. <math>u,v</math> are nodes in Graph <math>G</math>. <math>N(u)=\{u|(u,v)\in E\}</math> is the set of all the neighbor nodes of <math>u</math> in graph <math>G</math>.<br />
<br />
To further illustrate the above, we use the basic Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) as an example. A MLP consists of layers of neurons, where each neuron performs a weighted sum over scalar inputs and outputs, followed by some non-linearity. Suppose the <math>r^{th}</math> layer of an MLP takes <math>x^{(r)}</math> as input and <math>x^{(r+1)}</math> as output, then a neuron computes <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"><math>x_i^{(r+1)}= \sigma(\Sigma_jw_{ij}^{(r)}x_j^{(r)})</math>.</div> <br />
<br />
where <math>w_{ij}^{(r)}</math> is the trainable weight and <math>\sigma</math> is the non-linearity function. Let's first consider the special case where the input and output of all the layers <math>x^{(r)}</math>, <math>1 \leq r \leq R </math> have the same feature dimensions <math>d</math>. In this scenario, we can have <math>d</math> nodes in the Graph <math>G</math> with each node representing a neuron in MLP. Each layer of neural network will correspond with a round of message exchange, so there will be <math>R</math> rounds of message exchange in total. The aggregation function here will be the summation with non-linearity transform <math>\sigma(\Sigma)</math>, while the message function is simply the scalar multipication with weight. A fully-connected, fixed-width MLP layer can then be expressed with a complete relational graph, where each node <math>x_v</math> connects to all the other nodes in <math>G</math>, that is neighborhood set <math>N(v) = V</math> for each node <math>v</math>. The figure below shows the correspondence between the complete relation graph with a 5-layer 4-dimension fully-connected MLP.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;">[[File:fully_connnected_MLP.png]]</div><br />
<br />
In fact, a fixed-width fully-connected MLP is only a special case under a much more general model family, where the message function, aggregation function, and most importantly, the relation graph structure can vary. The different relational graph will represent the different topological structure and information exchange pattern of the network, which is the property that the paper wants to examine. The plot below shows two examples of non-fully connected fixed-width MLP and their corresponding relational graphs. <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;">[[File:otherMLP.png]]</div><br />
<br />
We can generalize the above definitions for fixed-with MLP to Variable-width MLP, Convolutinal Neural Network (CNN) and other modern network architecture like Resnet by allowing the node feature quantity <math>\textbf{x}_j^{(r)}</math> to be a vector or tensor respectively. In this case, each node in the relational graph will represent multiple neurons in the network, and the number of neurons contained in each node at each round of message change does not need to be the same, which gives us a flexible representation of different neural network architecture. The messega function will then change from the simple scalar multiplication to either matrix/tensor multiplication or convolution. The representation of these more complicated networks are described in detail in the paper, and the correspondence between different networks and their relational graph properties is summarized in the table below. <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;">[[File:relational_specification.png]]</div><br />
<br />
Overall, relational graphs provide a general representation for neural networks. With proper definitions of node features and message exchange, relational graphs can represent diverse neural architectures, thereby allowing us to study the performance of different graph structures.<br />
<br />
= Exploring and Generating Relational Graphs=<br />
<br />
We will deal with the design and how to explore the space of relational graphs in this section. There are three parts we need to consider:<br />
<br />
(1) '''Graph measures''' that characterize graph structural properties:<br />
<br />
We will use one global graph measure, average path length, and one local graph measure, clustering coefficient in this paper.<br />
To explain clearly, average path length measures the average shortest path distance between any pair of nodes; the clustering coefficient measures the proportion of edges between the nodes within a given node’s neighbourhood, divided by the number of edges that could possibly exist between them, averaged over all the nodes.<br />
<br />
(2) '''Graph generators''' that can generate the diverse graph:<br />
<br />
With selected graph measures, we use a graph generator to generate diverse graphs to cover a large span of graph measures. To figure out the limitation of the graph generator and find out the best, we investigate some generators including ER, WS, BA, Harary, Ring, Complete graph and results shows as below:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;">[[File:3.2 graph generator.png]]</div><br />
<br />
Thus, from the picture, we could obtain the WS-flex graph generator that can generate graphs with a wide coverage of graph measures; notably, WS-flex graphs almost encompass all the graphs generated by classic random generators mentioned above.<br />
<br />
(3) '''Computational Budget''' that we need to control so that the differences in performance of different neural networks are due to their diverse relational graph structures.<br />
<br />
It is important to ensure that all networks have approximately the same complexities so that the differences in performance are due to their relational graph structures when comparing neutral work by their diverse graph.<br />
<br />
We use FLOPS (# of multiply-adds) as the metric. We first compute the FLOPS of our baseline network instantiations (i.e. complete relational graph) and use them as the reference complexity in each experiment. From the description in section 2, a relational graph structure can be instantiated as a neural network with variable width. Therefore, we can adjust the width of a neural network to match the reference complexity without changing the relational graph structures.<br />
<br />
= Experimental Setup =<br />
The author studied the performance of 3942 sampled relational graphs (generated by WS-flex from the last section) of 64 nodes with two experiments: <br />
<br />
(1) CIFAR-10 dataset: 10 classes, 50K training images and 10K validation images<br />
<br />
Relational Graph: all 3942 sampled relational graphs of 64 nodes<br />
<br />
Studied Network: 5-layer MLP with 512 hidden units<br />
<br />
<br />
(2) ImageNet classification: 1K image classes, 1.28M training images and 50K validation images<br />
<br />
Relational Graph: Due to high computational cost, 52 graphs are uniformly sampled from the 3942 available graphs.<br />
<br />
Studied Network: <br />
*ResNet-34, which only consists of basic blocks of 3×3 convolutions (He et al., 2016)<br />
<br />
*ResNet-34-sep, a variant where we replace all 3×3 dense convolutions in ResNet-34 with 3×3 separable convolutions (Chollet, 2017)<br />
<br />
*ResNet-50, which consists of bottleneck blocks (He et al., 2016) of 1×1, 3×3, 1×1 convolutions<br />
<br />
*EfficientNet-B0 architecture (Tan & Le, 2019)<br />
<br />
*8-layer CNN with 3×3 convolution<br />
<br />
= Discussions and Conclusions =<br />
<br />
The paper summarizes the result of experiment among multiple different relational graphs through sampling and analyzing and list six important observations during the experiments, These are:<br />
<br />
* There are always exists graph structure that has higher predictive accuracy under Top-1 error compare to the complete graph<br />
<br />
* There is a sweet spot that the graph structure near the sweet spot usually outperform the base graph<br />
<br />
* The predictive accuracy under top-1 error can be represented by a smooth function of Average Path Length <math> (L) </math> and Clustering Coefficient <math> (C) </math><br />
<br />
* The Experiments is consistent across multiple dataset and multiple graph structure with similar Average Path Length and Clustering Coefficient.<br />
<br />
* The best graph structure can be identified easily.<br />
<br />
* There is similarity between best artificial neurons and biological neurons.<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
[[File:Result2_441_2020Group16.png]]<br />
<br />
$$\text{Figure - Results from Experiments}$$<br />
<br />
== Neural networks performance depends on its structure ==<br />
During the experiment, Top-1 errors for all sampled relational graph among multiple tasks and graph structures are recorded. The parameters of the models are average path length and clustering coefficient. Heat maps was created to illustrate the difference of predictive performance among possible average path length and clustering coefficient. In '''Figure - Results from Experiments (a)(c)(f)''', The darker area represents a smaller top-1 error which indicate the model perform better than light area.<br />
<br />
Compare with the complete graph which has parameter <math> L = 1 </math> and <math> C = 1 </math>, The best performing relational graph can outperform the complete graph baseline by 1.4% top-1 error for MLP on CIFAR-10, and 0.5% to 1.2% for models on ImageNet. Hence it is an indicator that the predictive performance of neural network highly depends on the graph structure, or equivalently that completed graph does not always has the best performance. <br />
<br />
== Sweet spot where performance is significantly improved ==<br />
It had been recognized that training noises often results in inconsistent predictive results. In the paper, the 3942 graphs that in the sample had been grouped into 52 bin, each bin had been colored based on the average performance of graphs that fall into the bin. By taking the average, the training noises had been significantly reduced. Based on the heat map '''Figure - Results from Experiments (f)''', the well-performing graphs tend to cluster into a special spot that the paper called “sweet spot” shown in the red rectangle, the rectangle is approximately included clustering coefficient in the range <math>[0.1,0.7]</math> and average path length with in <math>[1.5,3]</math>.<br />
<br />
== Relationship between neural network’s performance and parameters == <br />
When we visualize the heat map, we can see that there are no significant jump of performance that occurred as small change of clustering coefficient and average path length ('''Figure - Results from Experiments (a)(c)(f)'''). In addition, if one of the variable is fixed in a small range, it is observed that a second degree polynomial is a good visualization tools for the overall trend ('''Figure - Results from Experiments (b)(d)'''). Therefore, both clustering coefficient and average path length are highly related with neural network performance by a U-shape. <br />
<br />
== Consistency among many different tasks and datasets ==<br />
The paper present consistency use two perspective, one is qualitative consistency and another one is quantitative consistency.<br />
<br />
(1) '''Qualitative Consistency'''<br />
It is observed that the results are consistent through different point of view. Among multiple architecture dataset, it is observed that the clustering coefficient within <math>[0.1,0.7]</math> and average path length with in <math>[1.5,3]</math> consistently outperform the baseline complete graph. <br />
<br />
(2) '''Quantitative Consistency'''<br />
Among different dataset with network that has similar clustering coefficient and average path length, the results are correlated, The paper mentioned that ResNet-34 is much more complex than 5-layer MLP but a fixed set relational graphs would perform similarly in both setting, with Pearson correlation of <math>0.658</math>, the p-value for the Null hypothesis is less than <math>10^{-8}</math>.<br />
<br />
== top architectures can be identified efficiently ==<br />
According to the graphs we have in the Key Results. We can see that there is a "sweet spot" and therefore, we do not have to train the entire data set for a large value of epoch or a really large sample. We can take a sample of the data around 52 graphs that would have a correlation of 0.9 which indicates that fewer samples are needed for a similar analysis in practice. Within 3 epochs, the correlation between the variables is already high enough for future computation.<br />
<br />
== well-performing neural networks have graph structure surprisingly similar to those of real biological neural networks==<br />
The way we define relational graphs and average length in the graph is similar to the way information is exchanged in network science. The biological neural network also has a similar relational graph representation and graph measure with the best-performing relational graph.<br />
<br />
= Critique =<br />
<br />
1. The experiment is only measuring on a single data set which might not be representative enough. As we can see in the whole paper, the "sweet spot" we talked about might be a special feature for the given data set only which is CIFAR-10 data set. If we change the data set to another imaging data set like CK+, whether we are going to get a similar result is not shown by the paper. Hence, the result that is being concluded from the paper might not be representative enough. <br />
<br />
2. When we are fitting the model in practice, we will fit the model with more than one epoch. The order of the model fitting should be randomized since we should create more random jumps to avoid staked inside a local minimum. With the same order within each epoch, the data might be grouped by different classes or levels, the model might result in a better performance with certain classes and worse performance with other classes. In this particular example, without randomization of the training data, the conclusion might not be precise enough.</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=Graph_Structure_of_Neural_Networks&diff=45195Graph Structure of Neural Networks2020-11-17T22:00:02Z<p>B22chang: /* Critique */</p>
<hr />
<div>= Presented By =<br />
<br />
Xiaolan Xu, Robin Wen, Yue Weng, Beizhen Chang<br />
<br />
= Introduction =<br />
<br />
During the study of Neural Networks, it is especially important to build a relation between a neural network’s accuracy and its underlying graph structure.<br />
The natural choice is to use computational graph representation but it has many limitations such as lack of generality and disconnection with biology/neuroscience.<br />
<br />
Thus, we develop a new way of representing a neural network as a graph, which we call a relational graph. Our key insight is to focus on message exchange, rather than just on directed data flow. For example, for a fixed-width fully-connected layer, we can represent one input channel and one output channel together as a single node, and an edge in the relational graph represents the message exchange between the two nodes. Under this formulation, using the appropriate message exchange definition, we show that the relational graph can represent many types of neural network layers.<br />
<br />
We designed WS-flex, as a graph generator that allows us to systematically explore the design space of neural networks. We characterize neural networks by the clustering coefficient and average path length of their relational graphs under the insights of neuroscience.<br />
<br />
= Neural Network as Relational Graph =<br />
<br />
The author proposes the concept of relational graph to study the graphical structure of neural network. Each relational graph is based on an undirected graph <math>G =(V; E)</math>, where <math>V =\{v_1,...,v_n\}</math> is the set of all the nodes, and <math>E \subseteq \{(v_i,v_j)|v_i,v_j\in V\}</math> is the set of all edges that connect nodes. Note that for the graph used here, all nodes have self edges, that is <math>(v_i,v_i)\in E</math>. <br />
<br />
To build a relational graph that captures the message exchange between neurons in the network, we associate various mathematical quantities to the graph <math>G</math>. First, a feature quantity <math>x_v</math> is associated with each node. The quantity <math>x_v</math> might be a scalar, vector or tensor depending on different types of neural networks (see the Table at the end of the section). Then a message function <math>f_{uv}(·)</math> is associated with every edge in the graph. A message function specifically takes a node’s feature as the input and then output a message. An aggregation function <math>{\rm AGG}_v(·)</math> then takes a set of messages (the outputs of message function) and outputs the updated node feature. <br />
<br />
A relation graph is a graph <math>G</math> associated with several rounds of message exchange, which transfrom the fearure quantity <math>x_v</math> with the message function <math>f_{uv}(·)</math> and the aggregation function <math>{\rm AGG}_v(·)</math>. At each round of message exchange, each node sends messages to its neighbors and aggregates incoming messages from its neighbors. Each message is transformed at each edge through the message function, then they are aggregated at each node via the aggregation function. Suppose we have already conducted <math>r-1</math> rounds of message exchange, then the <math>r^{th}</math> round of message exchange for a node <math>v</math> can be described as<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"><math>\mathbf{x}_v^{(r+1)}= {\rm AGG}^{(r)}(\{f_v^{(r)}(\textbf{x}_u^{(r)}), \forall u\in N(v)\})</math></div> <br />
<br />
where <math>\mathbf{x}^{(r+1)}</math> is the feature of of the <math>v</math> node in the relational graph after the <math>r^{th}</math> round of update. <math>u,v</math> are nodes in Graph <math>G</math>. <math>N(u)=\{u|(u,v)\in E\}</math> is the set of all the neighbor nodes of <math>u</math> in graph <math>G</math>.<br />
<br />
To further illustrate the above, we use the basic Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) as an example. A MLP consists of layers of neurons, where each neuron performs a weighted sum over scalar inputs and outputs, followed by some non-linearity. Suppose the <math>r^{th}</math> layer of an MLP takes <math>x^{(r)}</math> as input and <math>x^{(r+1)}</math> as output, then a neuron computes <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"><math>x_i^{(r+1)}= \sigma(\Sigma_jw_{ij}^{(r)}x_j^{(r)})</math>.</div> <br />
<br />
where <math>w_{ij}^{(r)}</math> is the trainable weight and <math>\sigma</math> is the non-linearity function. Let's first consider the special case where the input and output of all the layers <math>x^{(r)}</math>, <math>1 \leq r \leq R </math> have the same feature dimensions <math>d</math>. In this scenario, we can have <math>d</math> nodes in the Graph <math>G</math> with each node representing a neuron in MLP. Each layer of neural network will correspond with a round of message exchange, so there will be <math>R</math> rounds of message exchange in total. The aggregation function here will be the summation with non-linearity transform <math>\sigma(\Sigma)</math>, while the message function is simply the scalar multipication with weight. A fully-connected, fixed-width MLP layer can then be expressed with a complete relational graph, where each node <math>x_v</math> connects to all the other nodes in <math>G</math>, that is neighborhood set <math>N(v) = V</math> for each node <math>v</math>. The figure below shows the correspondence between the complete relation graph with a 5-layer 4-dimension fully-connected MLP.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;">[[File:fully_connnected_MLP.png]]</div><br />
<br />
In fact, a fixed-width fully-connected MLP is only a special case under a much more general model family, where the message function, aggregation function, and most importantly, the relation graph structure can vary. The different relational graph will represent the different topological structure and information exchange pattern of the network, which is the property that the paper wants to examine. The plot below shows two examples of non-fully connected fixed-width MLP and their corresponding relational graphs. <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;">[[File:otherMLP.png]]</div><br />
<br />
We can generalize the above definitions for fixed-with MLP to Variable-width MLP, Convolutinal Neural Network (CNN) and other modern network architecture like Resnet by allowing the node feature quantity <math>\textbf{x}_j^{(r)}</math> to be a vector or tensor respectively. In this case, each node in the relational graph will represent multiple neurons in the network, and the number of neurons contained in each node at each round of message change does not need to be the same, which gives us a flexible representation of different neural network architecture. The messega function will then change from the simple scalar multiplication to either matrix/tensor multiplication or convolution. The representation of these more complicated networks are described in detail in the paper, and the correspondence between different networks and their relational graph properties is summarized in the table below. <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;">[[File:relational_specification.png]]</div><br />
<br />
Overall, relational graphs provide a general representation for neural networks. With proper definitions of node features and message exchange, relational graphs can represent diverse neural architectures, thereby allowing us to study the performance of different graph structures.<br />
<br />
= Exploring and Generating Relational Graphs=<br />
<br />
We will deal with the design and how to explore the space of relational graphs in this section. There are three parts we need to consider:<br />
<br />
(1) '''Graph measures''' that characterize graph structural properties:<br />
<br />
We will use one global graph measure, average path length, and one local graph measure, clustering coefficient in this paper.<br />
To explain clearly, average path length measures the average shortest path distance between any pair of nodes; the clustering coefficient measures the proportion of edges between the nodes within a given node’s neighbourhood, divided by the number of edges that could possibly exist between them, averaged over all the nodes.<br />
<br />
(2) '''Graph generators''' that can generate the diverse graph:<br />
<br />
With selected graph measures, we use a graph generator to generate diverse graphs to cover a large span of graph measures. To figure out the limitation of the graph generator and find out the best, we investigate some generators including ER, WS, BA, Harary, Ring, Complete graph and results shows as below:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;">[[File:3.2 graph generator.png]]</div><br />
<br />
Thus, from the picture, we could obtain the WS-flex graph generator that can generate graphs with a wide coverage of graph measures; notably, WS-flex graphs almost encompass all the graphs generated by classic random generators mentioned above.<br />
<br />
(3) '''Computational Budget''' that we need to control so that the differences in performance of different neural networks are due to their diverse relational graph structures.<br />
<br />
It is important to ensure that all networks have approximately the same complexities so that the differences in performance are due to their relational graph structures when comparing neutral work by their diverse graph.<br />
<br />
We use FLOPS (# of multiply-adds) as the metric. We first compute the FLOPS of our baseline network instantiations (i.e. complete relational graph) and use them as the reference complexity in each experiment. From the description in section 2, a relational graph structure can be instantiated as a neural network with variable width. Therefore, we can adjust the width of a neural network to match the reference complexity without changing the relational graph structures.<br />
<br />
= Experimental Setup =<br />
The author studied the performance of 3942 sampled relational graphs (generated by WS-flex from the last section) of 64 nodes with two experiments: <br />
<br />
(1) CIFAR-10 dataset: 10 classes, 50K training images and 10K validation images<br />
<br />
Relational Graph: all 3942 sampled relational graphs of 64 nodes<br />
<br />
Studied Network: 5-layer MLP with 512 hidden units<br />
<br />
<br />
(2) ImageNet classification: 1K image classes, 1.28M training images and 50K validation images<br />
<br />
Relational Graph: Due to high computational cost, 52 graphs are uniformly sampled from the 3942 available graphs.<br />
<br />
Studied Network: <br />
*ResNet-34, which only consists of basic blocks of 3×3 convolutions (He et al., 2016)<br />
<br />
*ResNet-34-sep, a variant where we replace all 3×3 dense convolutions in ResNet-34 with 3×3 separable convolutions (Chollet, 2017)<br />
<br />
*ResNet-50, which consists of bottleneck blocks (He et al., 2016) of 1×1, 3×3, 1×1 convolutions<br />
<br />
*EfficientNet-B0 architecture (Tan & Le, 2019)<br />
<br />
*8-layer CNN with 3×3 convolution<br />
<br />
= Discussions and Conclusions =<br />
<br />
The paper summarizes the result of experiment among multiple different relational graphs through sampling and analyzing and list six important observations during the experiments, These are:<br />
<br />
* There are always exists graph structure that has higher predictive accuracy under Top-1 error compare to the complete graph<br />
<br />
* There is a sweet spot that the graph structure near the sweet spot usually outperform the base graph<br />
<br />
* The predictive accuracy under top-1 error can be represented by a smooth function of Average Path Length <math> (L) </math> and Clustering Coefficient <math> (C) </math><br />
<br />
* The Experiments is consistent across multiple dataset and multiple graph structure with similar Average Path Length and Clustering Coefficient.<br />
<br />
* The best graph structure can be identified easily.<br />
<br />
* There is similarity between best artificial neurons and biological neurons.<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
[[File:Result2_441_2020Group16.png]]<br />
<br />
$$\text{Figure - Results from Experiments}$$<br />
<br />
== Neural networks performance depends on its structure ==<br />
During the experiment, Top-1 errors for all sampled relational graph among multiple tasks and graph structures are recorded. The parameters of the models are average path length and clustering coefficient. Heat maps was created to illustrate the difference of predictive performance among possible average path length and clustering coefficient. In '''Figure - Results from Experiments (a)(c)(f)''', The darker area represents a smaller top-1 error which indicate the model perform better than light area.<br />
<br />
Compare with the complete graph which has parameter <math> L = 1 </math> and <math> C = 1 </math>, The best performing relational graph can outperform the complete graph baseline by 1.4% top-1 error for MLP on CIFAR-10, and 0.5% to 1.2% for models on ImageNet. Hence it is an indicator that the predictive performance of neural network highly depends on the graph structure, or equivalently that completed graph does not always has the best performance. <br />
<br />
== Sweet spot where performance is significantly improved ==<br />
It had been recognized that training noises often results in inconsistent predictive results. In the paper, the 3942 graphs that in the sample had been grouped into 52 bin, each bin had been colored based on the average performance of graphs that fall into the bin. By taking the average, the training noises had been significantly reduced. Based on the heat map '''Figure - Results from Experiments (f)''', the well-performing graphs tend to cluster into a special spot that the paper called “sweet spot” shown in the red rectangle, the rectangle is approximately included clustering coefficient in the range <math>[0.1,0.7]</math> and average path length with in <math>[1.5,3]</math>.<br />
<br />
== Relationship between neural network’s performance and parameters == <br />
When we visualize the heat map, we can see that there are no significant jump of performance that occurred as small change of clustering coefficient and average path length ('''Figure - Results from Experiments (a)(c)(f)'''). In addition, if one of the variable is fixed in a small range, it is observed that a second degree polynomial is a good visualization tools for the overall trend ('''Figure - Results from Experiments (b)(d)'''). Therefore, both clustering coefficient and average path length are highly related with neural network performance by a U-shape. <br />
<br />
== Consistency among many different tasks and datasets ==<br />
The paper present consistency use two perspective, one is qualitative consistency and another one is quantitative consistency.<br />
<br />
(1) '''Qualitative Consistency'''<br />
It is observed that the results are consistent through different point of view. Among multiple architecture dataset, it is observed that the clustering coefficient within <math>[0.1,0.7]</math> and average path length with in <math>[1.5,3]</math> consistently outperform the baseline complete graph. <br />
<br />
(2) '''Quantitative Consistency'''<br />
Among different dataset with network that has similar clustering coefficient and average path length, the results are correlated, The paper mentioned that ResNet-34 is much more complex than 5-layer MLP but a fixed set relational graphs would perform similarly in both setting, with Pearson correlation of <math>0.658</math>, the p-value for the Null hypothesis is less than <math>10^{-8}</math>.<br />
<br />
== top architectures can be identified efficiently ==<br />
According to the graphs we have in the Key Results. We can see that there is a "sweet spot" and therefore, we do not have to train the entire data set for a large value of epoch or a really large sample. We can take a sample of the data around 52 graphs that would have a correlation of 0.9 which indicates that fewer samples are needed for a similar analysis in practice. Within 3 epochs, the correlation between the variables is already high enough for future computation.<br />
<br />
== well-performing neural networks have graph structure surprisingly similar to those of real biological neural networks==<br />
The way we define relational graphs and average length in the graph is similar to the way information is exchanged in network science. The biological neural network also has a similar relational graph representation and graph measure with the best-performing relational graph.<br />
<br />
= Critique =<br />
<br />
1. The experiment is only measuring on a single data set which might not be representative enough. As we can see in the whole paper, the "sweet spot" we talked about might be a special feature for the given data set only which is CIFAR-10 data set. If we change the data set to another imaging data set like CK+, whether we are going to get a similar result is not shown by the paper. Hence, the result that is being concluded from the paper might not be representative enough. <br />
<br />
2. When we are fitting the model, training data should be randomized in each epoch to reduce the noise.</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=Graph_Structure_of_Neural_Networks&diff=45194Graph Structure of Neural Networks2020-11-17T21:52:18Z<p>B22chang: /* Critique */</p>
<hr />
<div>= Presented By =<br />
<br />
Xiaolan Xu, Robin Wen, Yue Weng, Beizhen Chang<br />
<br />
= Introduction =<br />
<br />
During the study of Neural Networks, it is especially important to build a relation between a neural network’s accuracy and its underlying graph structure.<br />
The natural choice is to use computational graph representation but it has many limitations such as lack of generality and disconnection with biology/neuroscience.<br />
<br />
Thus, we develop a new way of representing a neural network as a graph, which we call a relational graph. Our key insight is to focus on message exchange, rather than just on directed data flow. For example, for a fixed-width fully-connected layer, we can represent one input channel and one output channel together as a single node, and an edge in the relational graph represents the message exchange between the two nodes. Under this formulation, using the appropriate message exchange definition, we show that the relational graph can represent many types of neural network layers.<br />
<br />
We designed WS-flex, as a graph generator that allows us to systematically explore the design space of neural networks. We characterize neural networks by the clustering coefficient and average path length of their relational graphs under the insights of neuroscience.<br />
<br />
= Neural Network as Relational Graph =<br />
<br />
The author proposes the concept of relational graph to study the graphical structure of neural network. Each relational graph is based on an undirected graph <math>G =(V; E)</math>, where <math>V =\{v_1,...,v_n\}</math> is the set of all the nodes, and <math>E \subseteq \{(v_i,v_j)|v_i,v_j\in V\}</math> is the set of all edges that connect nodes. Note that for the graph used here, all nodes have self edges, that is <math>(v_i,v_i)\in E</math>. <br />
<br />
To build a relational graph that captures the message exchange between neurons in the network, we associate various mathematical quantities to the graph <math>G</math>. First, a feature quantity <math>x_v</math> is associated with each node. The quantity <math>x_v</math> might be a scalar, vector or tensor depending on different types of neural networks (see the Table at the end of the section). Then a message function <math>f_{uv}(·)</math> is associated with every edge in the graph. A message function specifically takes a node’s feature as the input and then output a message. An aggregation function <math>{\rm AGG}_v(·)</math> then takes a set of messages (the outputs of message function) and outputs the updated node feature. <br />
<br />
A relation graph is a graph <math>G</math> associated with several rounds of message exchange, which transfrom the fearure quantity <math>x_v</math> with the message function <math>f_{uv}(·)</math> and the aggregation function <math>{\rm AGG}_v(·)</math>. At each round of message exchange, each node sends messages to its neighbors and aggregates incoming messages from its neighbors. Each message is transformed at each edge through the message function, then they are aggregated at each node via the aggregation function. Suppose we have already conducted <math>r-1</math> rounds of message exchange, then the <math>r^{th}</math> round of message exchange for a node <math>v</math> can be described as<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"><math>\mathbf{x}_v^{(r+1)}= {\rm AGG}^{(r)}(\{f_v^{(r)}(\textbf{x}_u^{(r)}), \forall u\in N(v)\})</math></div> <br />
<br />
where <math>\mathbf{x}^{(r+1)}</math> is the feature of of the <math>v</math> node in the relational graph after the <math>r^{th}</math> round of update. <math>u,v</math> are nodes in Graph <math>G</math>. <math>N(u)=\{u|(u,v)\in E\}</math> is the set of all the neighbor nodes of <math>u</math> in graph <math>G</math>.<br />
<br />
To further illustrate the above, we use the basic Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) as an example. A MLP consists of layers of neurons, where each neuron performs a weighted sum over scalar inputs and outputs, followed by some non-linearity. Suppose the <math>r^{th}</math> layer of an MLP takes <math>x^{(r)}</math> as input and <math>x^{(r+1)}</math> as output, then a neuron computes <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"><math>x_i^{(r+1)}= \sigma(\Sigma_jw_{ij}^{(r)}x_j^{(r)})</math>.</div> <br />
<br />
where <math>w_{ij}^{(r)}</math> is the trainable weight and <math>\sigma</math> is the non-linearity function. Let's first consider the special case where the input and output of all the layers <math>x^{(r)}</math>, <math>1 \leq r \leq R </math> have the same feature dimensions <math>d</math>. In this scenario, we can have <math>d</math> nodes in the Graph <math>G</math> with each node representing a neuron in MLP. Each layer of neural network will correspond with a round of message exchange, so there will be <math>R</math> rounds of message exchange in total. The aggregation function here will be the summation with non-linearity transform <math>\sigma(\Sigma)</math>, while the message function is simply the scalar multipication with weight. A fully-connected, fixed-width MLP layer can then be expressed with a complete relational graph, where each node <math>x_v</math> connects to all the other nodes in <math>G</math>, that is neighborhood set <math>N(v) = V</math> for each node <math>v</math>. The figure below shows the correspondence between the complete relation graph with a 5-layer 4-dimension fully-connected MLP.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;">[[File:fully_connnected_MLP.png]]</div><br />
<br />
In fact, a fixed-width fully-connected MLP is only a special case under a much more general model family, where the message function, aggregation function, and most importantly, the relation graph structure can vary. The different relational graph will represent the different topological structure and information exchange pattern of the network, which is the property that the paper wants to examine. The plot below shows two examples of non-fully connected fixed-width MLP and their corresponding relational graphs. <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;">[[File:otherMLP.png]]</div><br />
<br />
We can generalize the above definitions for fixed-with MLP to Variable-width MLP, Convolutinal Neural Network (CNN) and other modern network architecture like Resnet by allowing the node feature quantity <math>\textbf{x}_j^{(r)}</math> to be a vector or tensor respectively. In this case, each node in the relational graph will represent multiple neurons in the network, and the number of neurons contained in each node at each round of message change does not need to be the same, which gives us a flexible representation of different neural network architecture. The messega function will then change from the simple scalar multiplication to either matrix/tensor multiplication or convolution. The representation of these more complicated networks are described in detail in the paper, and the correspondence between different networks and their relational graph properties is summarized in the table below. <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;">[[File:relational_specification.png]]</div><br />
<br />
Overall, relational graphs provide a general representation for neural networks. With proper definitions of node features and message exchange, relational graphs can represent diverse neural architectures, thereby allowing us to study the performance of different graph structures.<br />
<br />
= Exploring and Generating Relational Graphs=<br />
<br />
We will deal with the design and how to explore the space of relational graphs in this section. There are three parts we need to consider:<br />
<br />
(1) '''Graph measures''' that characterize graph structural properties:<br />
<br />
We will use one global graph measure, average path length, and one local graph measure, clustering coefficient in this paper.<br />
To explain clearly, average path length measures the average shortest path distance between any pair of nodes; the clustering coefficient measures the proportion of edges between the nodes within a given node’s neighbourhood, divided by the number of edges that could possibly exist between them, averaged over all the nodes.<br />
<br />
(2) '''Graph generators''' that can generate the diverse graph:<br />
<br />
With selected graph measures, we use a graph generator to generate diverse graphs to cover a large span of graph measures. To figure out the limitation of the graph generator and find out the best, we investigate some generators including ER, WS, BA, Harary, Ring, Complete graph and results shows as below:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;">[[File:3.2 graph generator.png]]</div><br />
<br />
Thus, from the picture, we could obtain the WS-flex graph generator that can generate graphs with a wide coverage of graph measures; notably, WS-flex graphs almost encompass all the graphs generated by classic random generators mentioned above.<br />
<br />
(3) '''Computational Budget''' that we need to control so that the differences in performance of different neural networks are due to their diverse relational graph structures.<br />
<br />
It is important to ensure that all networks have approximately the same complexities so that the differences in performance are due to their relational graph structures when comparing neutral work by their diverse graph.<br />
<br />
We use FLOPS (# of multiply-adds) as the metric. We first compute the FLOPS of our baseline network instantiations (i.e. complete relational graph) and use them as the reference complexity in each experiment. From the description in section 2, a relational graph structure can be instantiated as a neural network with variable width. Therefore, we can adjust the width of a neural network to match the reference complexity without changing the relational graph structures.<br />
<br />
= Experimental Setup =<br />
The author studied the performance of 3942 sampled relational graphs (generated by WS-flex from the last section) of 64 nodes with two experiments: <br />
<br />
(1) CIFAR-10 dataset: 10 classes, 50K training images and 10K validation images<br />
<br />
Relational Graph: all 3942 sampled relational graphs of 64 nodes<br />
<br />
Studied Network: 5-layer MLP with 512 hidden units<br />
<br />
<br />
(2) ImageNet classification: 1K image classes, 1.28M training images and 50K validation images<br />
<br />
Relational Graph: Due to high computational cost, 52 graphs are uniformly sampled from the 3942 available graphs.<br />
<br />
Studied Network: <br />
*ResNet-34, which only consists of basic blocks of 3×3 convolutions (He et al., 2016)<br />
<br />
*ResNet-34-sep, a variant where we replace all 3×3 dense convolutions in ResNet-34 with 3×3 separable convolutions (Chollet, 2017)<br />
<br />
*ResNet-50, which consists of bottleneck blocks (He et al., 2016) of 1×1, 3×3, 1×1 convolutions<br />
<br />
*EfficientNet-B0 architecture (Tan & Le, 2019)<br />
<br />
*8-layer CNN with 3×3 convolution<br />
<br />
= Discussions and Conclusions =<br />
<br />
The paper summarizes the result of experiment among multiple different relational graphs through sampling and analyzing and list six important observations during the experiments, These are:<br />
<br />
* There are always exists graph structure that has higher predictive accuracy under Top-1 error compare to the complete graph<br />
<br />
* There is a sweet spot that the graph structure near the sweet spot usually outperform the base graph<br />
<br />
* The predictive accuracy under top-1 error can be represented by a smooth function of Average Path Length <math> (L) </math> and Clustering Coefficient <math> (C) </math><br />
<br />
* The Experiments is consistent across multiple dataset and multiple graph structure with similar Average Path Length and Clustering Coefficient.<br />
<br />
* The best graph structure can be identified easily.<br />
<br />
* There is similarity between best artificial neurons and biological neurons.<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
[[File:Result2_441_2020Group16.png]]<br />
<br />
$$\text{Figure - Results from Experiments}$$<br />
<br />
== Neural networks performance depends on its structure ==<br />
During the experiment, Top-1 errors for all sampled relational graph among multiple tasks and graph structures are recorded. The parameters of the models are average path length and clustering coefficient. Heat maps was created to illustrate the difference of predictive performance among possible average path length and clustering coefficient. In '''Figure - Results from Experiments (a)(c)(f)''', The darker area represents a smaller top-1 error which indicate the model perform better than light area.<br />
<br />
Compare with the complete graph which has parameter <math> L = 1 </math> and <math> C = 1 </math>, The best performing relational graph can outperform the complete graph baseline by 1.4% top-1 error for MLP on CIFAR-10, and 0.5% to 1.2% for models on ImageNet. Hence it is an indicator that the predictive performance of neural network highly depends on the graph structure, or equivalently that completed graph does not always has the best performance. <br />
<br />
== Sweet spot where performance is significantly improved ==<br />
It had been recognized that training noises often results in inconsistent predictive results. In the paper, the 3942 graphs that in the sample had been grouped into 52 bin, each bin had been colored based on the average performance of graphs that fall into the bin. By taking the average, the training noises had been significantly reduced. Based on the heat map '''Figure - Results from Experiments (f)''', the well-performing graphs tend to cluster into a special spot that the paper called “sweet spot” shown in the red rectangle, the rectangle is approximately included clustering coefficient in the range <math>[0.1,0.7]</math> and average path length with in <math>[1.5,3]</math>.<br />
<br />
== Relationship between neural network’s performance and parameters == <br />
When we visualize the heat map, we can see that there are no significant jump of performance that occurred as small change of clustering coefficient and average path length ('''Figure - Results from Experiments (a)(c)(f)'''). In addition, if one of the variable is fixed in a small range, it is observed that a second degree polynomial is a good visualization tools for the overall trend ('''Figure - Results from Experiments (b)(d)'''). Therefore, both clustering coefficient and average path length are highly related with neural network performance by a U-shape. <br />
<br />
== Consistency among many different tasks and datasets ==<br />
The paper present consistency use two perspective, one is qualitative consistency and another one is quantitative consistency.<br />
<br />
(1) '''Qualitative Consistency'''<br />
It is observed that the results are consistent through different point of view. Among multiple architecture dataset, it is observed that the clustering coefficient within <math>[0.1,0.7]</math> and average path length with in <math>[1.5,3]</math> consistently outperform the baseline complete graph. <br />
<br />
(2) '''Quantitative Consistency'''<br />
Among different dataset with network that has similar clustering coefficient and average path length, the results are correlated, The paper mentioned that ResNet-34 is much more complex than 5-layer MLP but a fixed set relational graphs would perform similarly in both setting, with Pearson correlation of <math>0.658</math>, the p-value for the Null hypothesis is less than <math>10^{-8}</math>.<br />
<br />
== top architectures can be identified efficiently ==<br />
According to the graphs we have in the Key Results. We can see that there is a "sweet spot" and therefore, we do not have to train the entire data set for a large value of epoch or a really large sample. We can take a sample of the data around 52 graphs that would have a correlation of 0.9 which indicates that fewer samples are needed for a similar analysis in practice. Within 3 epochs, the correlation between the variables is already high enough for future computation.<br />
<br />
== well-performing neural networks have graph structure surprisingly similar to those of real biological neural networks==<br />
The way we define relational graphs and average length in the graph is similar to the way information is exchanged in network science. The biological neural network also has a similar relational graph representation and graph measure with the best-performing relational graph.<br />
<br />
= Critique =<br />
<br />
1. The experiment is only measuring on a single data set which might impact the conclusion since this is not representative enough.<br />
<br />
2. When we are fitting the model, training data should be randomized in each epoch to reduce the noise.</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=Graph_Structure_of_Neural_Networks&diff=45193Graph Structure of Neural Networks2020-11-17T21:52:09Z<p>B22chang: /* Critique */</p>
<hr />
<div>= Presented By =<br />
<br />
Xiaolan Xu, Robin Wen, Yue Weng, Beizhen Chang<br />
<br />
= Introduction =<br />
<br />
During the study of Neural Networks, it is especially important to build a relation between a neural network’s accuracy and its underlying graph structure.<br />
The natural choice is to use computational graph representation but it has many limitations such as lack of generality and disconnection with biology/neuroscience.<br />
<br />
Thus, we develop a new way of representing a neural network as a graph, which we call a relational graph. Our key insight is to focus on message exchange, rather than just on directed data flow. For example, for a fixed-width fully-connected layer, we can represent one input channel and one output channel together as a single node, and an edge in the relational graph represents the message exchange between the two nodes. Under this formulation, using the appropriate message exchange definition, we show that the relational graph can represent many types of neural network layers.<br />
<br />
We designed WS-flex, as a graph generator that allows us to systematically explore the design space of neural networks. We characterize neural networks by the clustering coefficient and average path length of their relational graphs under the insights of neuroscience.<br />
<br />
= Neural Network as Relational Graph =<br />
<br />
The author proposes the concept of relational graph to study the graphical structure of neural network. Each relational graph is based on an undirected graph <math>G =(V; E)</math>, where <math>V =\{v_1,...,v_n\}</math> is the set of all the nodes, and <math>E \subseteq \{(v_i,v_j)|v_i,v_j\in V\}</math> is the set of all edges that connect nodes. Note that for the graph used here, all nodes have self edges, that is <math>(v_i,v_i)\in E</math>. <br />
<br />
To build a relational graph that captures the message exchange between neurons in the network, we associate various mathematical quantities to the graph <math>G</math>. First, a feature quantity <math>x_v</math> is associated with each node. The quantity <math>x_v</math> might be a scalar, vector or tensor depending on different types of neural networks (see the Table at the end of the section). Then a message function <math>f_{uv}(·)</math> is associated with every edge in the graph. A message function specifically takes a node’s feature as the input and then output a message. An aggregation function <math>{\rm AGG}_v(·)</math> then takes a set of messages (the outputs of message function) and outputs the updated node feature. <br />
<br />
A relation graph is a graph <math>G</math> associated with several rounds of message exchange, which transfrom the fearure quantity <math>x_v</math> with the message function <math>f_{uv}(·)</math> and the aggregation function <math>{\rm AGG}_v(·)</math>. At each round of message exchange, each node sends messages to its neighbors and aggregates incoming messages from its neighbors. Each message is transformed at each edge through the message function, then they are aggregated at each node via the aggregation function. Suppose we have already conducted <math>r-1</math> rounds of message exchange, then the <math>r^{th}</math> round of message exchange for a node <math>v</math> can be described as<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"><math>\mathbf{x}_v^{(r+1)}= {\rm AGG}^{(r)}(\{f_v^{(r)}(\textbf{x}_u^{(r)}), \forall u\in N(v)\})</math></div> <br />
<br />
where <math>\mathbf{x}^{(r+1)}</math> is the feature of of the <math>v</math> node in the relational graph after the <math>r^{th}</math> round of update. <math>u,v</math> are nodes in Graph <math>G</math>. <math>N(u)=\{u|(u,v)\in E\}</math> is the set of all the neighbor nodes of <math>u</math> in graph <math>G</math>.<br />
<br />
To further illustrate the above, we use the basic Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) as an example. A MLP consists of layers of neurons, where each neuron performs a weighted sum over scalar inputs and outputs, followed by some non-linearity. Suppose the <math>r^{th}</math> layer of an MLP takes <math>x^{(r)}</math> as input and <math>x^{(r+1)}</math> as output, then a neuron computes <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"><math>x_i^{(r+1)}= \sigma(\Sigma_jw_{ij}^{(r)}x_j^{(r)})</math>.</div> <br />
<br />
where <math>w_{ij}^{(r)}</math> is the trainable weight and <math>\sigma</math> is the non-linearity function. Let's first consider the special case where the input and output of all the layers <math>x^{(r)}</math>, <math>1 \leq r \leq R </math> have the same feature dimensions <math>d</math>. In this scenario, we can have <math>d</math> nodes in the Graph <math>G</math> with each node representing a neuron in MLP. Each layer of neural network will correspond with a round of message exchange, so there will be <math>R</math> rounds of message exchange in total. The aggregation function here will be the summation with non-linearity transform <math>\sigma(\Sigma)</math>, while the message function is simply the scalar multipication with weight. A fully-connected, fixed-width MLP layer can then be expressed with a complete relational graph, where each node <math>x_v</math> connects to all the other nodes in <math>G</math>, that is neighborhood set <math>N(v) = V</math> for each node <math>v</math>. The figure below shows the correspondence between the complete relation graph with a 5-layer 4-dimension fully-connected MLP.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;">[[File:fully_connnected_MLP.png]]</div><br />
<br />
In fact, a fixed-width fully-connected MLP is only a special case under a much more general model family, where the message function, aggregation function, and most importantly, the relation graph structure can vary. The different relational graph will represent the different topological structure and information exchange pattern of the network, which is the property that the paper wants to examine. The plot below shows two examples of non-fully connected fixed-width MLP and their corresponding relational graphs. <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;">[[File:otherMLP.png]]</div><br />
<br />
We can generalize the above definitions for fixed-with MLP to Variable-width MLP, Convolutinal Neural Network (CNN) and other modern network architecture like Resnet by allowing the node feature quantity <math>\textbf{x}_j^{(r)}</math> to be a vector or tensor respectively. In this case, each node in the relational graph will represent multiple neurons in the network, and the number of neurons contained in each node at each round of message change does not need to be the same, which gives us a flexible representation of different neural network architecture. The messega function will then change from the simple scalar multiplication to either matrix/tensor multiplication or convolution. The representation of these more complicated networks are described in detail in the paper, and the correspondence between different networks and their relational graph properties is summarized in the table below. <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;">[[File:relational_specification.png]]</div><br />
<br />
Overall, relational graphs provide a general representation for neural networks. With proper definitions of node features and message exchange, relational graphs can represent diverse neural architectures, thereby allowing us to study the performance of different graph structures.<br />
<br />
= Exploring and Generating Relational Graphs=<br />
<br />
We will deal with the design and how to explore the space of relational graphs in this section. There are three parts we need to consider:<br />
<br />
(1) '''Graph measures''' that characterize graph structural properties:<br />
<br />
We will use one global graph measure, average path length, and one local graph measure, clustering coefficient in this paper.<br />
To explain clearly, average path length measures the average shortest path distance between any pair of nodes; the clustering coefficient measures the proportion of edges between the nodes within a given node’s neighbourhood, divided by the number of edges that could possibly exist between them, averaged over all the nodes.<br />
<br />
(2) '''Graph generators''' that can generate the diverse graph:<br />
<br />
With selected graph measures, we use a graph generator to generate diverse graphs to cover a large span of graph measures. To figure out the limitation of the graph generator and find out the best, we investigate some generators including ER, WS, BA, Harary, Ring, Complete graph and results shows as below:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;">[[File:3.2 graph generator.png]]</div><br />
<br />
Thus, from the picture, we could obtain the WS-flex graph generator that can generate graphs with a wide coverage of graph measures; notably, WS-flex graphs almost encompass all the graphs generated by classic random generators mentioned above.<br />
<br />
(3) '''Computational Budget''' that we need to control so that the differences in performance of different neural networks are due to their diverse relational graph structures.<br />
<br />
It is important to ensure that all networks have approximately the same complexities so that the differences in performance are due to their relational graph structures when comparing neutral work by their diverse graph.<br />
<br />
We use FLOPS (# of multiply-adds) as the metric. We first compute the FLOPS of our baseline network instantiations (i.e. complete relational graph) and use them as the reference complexity in each experiment. From the description in section 2, a relational graph structure can be instantiated as a neural network with variable width. Therefore, we can adjust the width of a neural network to match the reference complexity without changing the relational graph structures.<br />
<br />
= Experimental Setup =<br />
The author studied the performance of 3942 sampled relational graphs (generated by WS-flex from the last section) of 64 nodes with two experiments: <br />
<br />
(1) CIFAR-10 dataset: 10 classes, 50K training images and 10K validation images<br />
<br />
Relational Graph: all 3942 sampled relational graphs of 64 nodes<br />
<br />
Studied Network: 5-layer MLP with 512 hidden units<br />
<br />
<br />
(2) ImageNet classification: 1K image classes, 1.28M training images and 50K validation images<br />
<br />
Relational Graph: Due to high computational cost, 52 graphs are uniformly sampled from the 3942 available graphs.<br />
<br />
Studied Network: <br />
*ResNet-34, which only consists of basic blocks of 3×3 convolutions (He et al., 2016)<br />
<br />
*ResNet-34-sep, a variant where we replace all 3×3 dense convolutions in ResNet-34 with 3×3 separable convolutions (Chollet, 2017)<br />
<br />
*ResNet-50, which consists of bottleneck blocks (He et al., 2016) of 1×1, 3×3, 1×1 convolutions<br />
<br />
*EfficientNet-B0 architecture (Tan & Le, 2019)<br />
<br />
*8-layer CNN with 3×3 convolution<br />
<br />
= Discussions and Conclusions =<br />
<br />
The paper summarizes the result of experiment among multiple different relational graphs through sampling and analyzing and list six important observations during the experiments, These are:<br />
<br />
* There are always exists graph structure that has higher predictive accuracy under Top-1 error compare to the complete graph<br />
<br />
* There is a sweet spot that the graph structure near the sweet spot usually outperform the base graph<br />
<br />
* The predictive accuracy under top-1 error can be represented by a smooth function of Average Path Length <math> (L) </math> and Clustering Coefficient <math> (C) </math><br />
<br />
* The Experiments is consistent across multiple dataset and multiple graph structure with similar Average Path Length and Clustering Coefficient.<br />
<br />
* The best graph structure can be identified easily.<br />
<br />
* There is similarity between best artificial neurons and biological neurons.<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
[[File:Result2_441_2020Group16.png]]<br />
<br />
$$\text{Figure - Results from Experiments}$$<br />
<br />
== Neural networks performance depends on its structure ==<br />
During the experiment, Top-1 errors for all sampled relational graph among multiple tasks and graph structures are recorded. The parameters of the models are average path length and clustering coefficient. Heat maps was created to illustrate the difference of predictive performance among possible average path length and clustering coefficient. In '''Figure - Results from Experiments (a)(c)(f)''', The darker area represents a smaller top-1 error which indicate the model perform better than light area.<br />
<br />
Compare with the complete graph which has parameter <math> L = 1 </math> and <math> C = 1 </math>, The best performing relational graph can outperform the complete graph baseline by 1.4% top-1 error for MLP on CIFAR-10, and 0.5% to 1.2% for models on ImageNet. Hence it is an indicator that the predictive performance of neural network highly depends on the graph structure, or equivalently that completed graph does not always has the best performance. <br />
<br />
== Sweet spot where performance is significantly improved ==<br />
It had been recognized that training noises often results in inconsistent predictive results. In the paper, the 3942 graphs that in the sample had been grouped into 52 bin, each bin had been colored based on the average performance of graphs that fall into the bin. By taking the average, the training noises had been significantly reduced. Based on the heat map '''Figure - Results from Experiments (f)''', the well-performing graphs tend to cluster into a special spot that the paper called “sweet spot” shown in the red rectangle, the rectangle is approximately included clustering coefficient in the range <math>[0.1,0.7]</math> and average path length with in <math>[1.5,3]</math>.<br />
<br />
== Relationship between neural network’s performance and parameters == <br />
When we visualize the heat map, we can see that there are no significant jump of performance that occurred as small change of clustering coefficient and average path length ('''Figure - Results from Experiments (a)(c)(f)'''). In addition, if one of the variable is fixed in a small range, it is observed that a second degree polynomial is a good visualization tools for the overall trend ('''Figure - Results from Experiments (b)(d)'''). Therefore, both clustering coefficient and average path length are highly related with neural network performance by a U-shape. <br />
<br />
== Consistency among many different tasks and datasets ==<br />
The paper present consistency use two perspective, one is qualitative consistency and another one is quantitative consistency.<br />
<br />
(1) '''Qualitative Consistency'''<br />
It is observed that the results are consistent through different point of view. Among multiple architecture dataset, it is observed that the clustering coefficient within <math>[0.1,0.7]</math> and average path length with in <math>[1.5,3]</math> consistently outperform the baseline complete graph. <br />
<br />
(2) '''Quantitative Consistency'''<br />
Among different dataset with network that has similar clustering coefficient and average path length, the results are correlated, The paper mentioned that ResNet-34 is much more complex than 5-layer MLP but a fixed set relational graphs would perform similarly in both setting, with Pearson correlation of <math>0.658</math>, the p-value for the Null hypothesis is less than <math>10^{-8}</math>.<br />
<br />
== top architectures can be identified efficiently ==<br />
According to the graphs we have in the Key Results. We can see that there is a "sweet spot" and therefore, we do not have to train the entire data set for a large value of epoch or a really large sample. We can take a sample of the data around 52 graphs that would have a correlation of 0.9 which indicates that fewer samples are needed for a similar analysis in practice. Within 3 epochs, the correlation between the variables is already high enough for future computation.<br />
<br />
== well-performing neural networks have graph structure surprisingly similar to those of real biological neural networks==<br />
The way we define relational graphs and average length in the graph is similar to the way information is exchanged in network science. The biological neural network also has a similar relational graph representation and graph measure with the best-performing relational graph.<br />
<br />
= Critique =<br />
<br />
1. The experiment is only measuring on a single data set which might impact the conclusion since this is not representative enough.<br />
<br />
<br />
2. When we are fitting the model, training data should be randomized in each epoch to reduce the noise.</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=Graph_Structure_of_Neural_Networks&diff=45050Graph Structure of Neural Networks2020-11-17T02:32:06Z<p>B22chang: /* top architectures can be identified efficiently */</p>
<hr />
<div>= Presented By =<br />
<br />
Xiaolan Xu, Robin Wen, Yue Weng, Beizhen Chang<br />
<br />
= Introduction =<br />
<br />
During the study of Neural Networks, it is especially important to build a relation between a neural network’s accuracy and its underlying graph structure.<br />
The natural choice is to use computational graph representation but it has many limitations such as lack of generality and disconnection with biology/neuroscience.<br />
<br />
Thus, we develop a new way of representing a neural network as a graph, which we call a relational graph. Our key insight is to focus on message exchange, rather than just on directed data flow. As a simple example, for a fixed-width fully-connected layer, we can represent one input channel and one output channel together as a single node,<br />
and an edge in the relational graph represents the message exchange between the two nodes. Under this formulation, using the appropriate message exchange definition, we show that the relational graph can represent many types of neural network layers.<br />
<br />
= Neural Network as Relational Graph =<br />
<br />
First, we define a graph <math>G =(V; E)</math> by its node set <math>V =\{v_1,...,v_n\}</math> and edge set <math>E \subseteq \{(v_i,v_j)|v_i,v_j\in V\}</math>. We assume that each node $v$ correpsonds with a feature <math>x_v</math>, which might be scalar, vector or tensor quantity. All nodes have self edges, that is <math>(v_i,v_i)\in E</math>, and the graph we consider here is undirected. <br />
<br />
We call graph <math>G</math> a relational graph, when it is associated with message exchanges between neurons. (It is not necessary for one node in neural network to correspond with one node in the relational graph.) The association can be more complicated. <br />
<br />
First: Graph<br />
<br />
Second: Graph with Message Exchange<br />
<br />
Message Exchange: Message Function + Aggregation Function<br />
<br />
Round of Message Excnage <br />
<br />
Specifically, a message exchange is defined by a message function and an aggregation function. A meesage function takes a node's feature <math>x_v</math> and then outputs an measage. <br />
<br />
An aggregation function: taking a set of messages and then output the updated node feature. Basically the aggregation function descirbes the way how the message is combined. <br />
<br />
At each round of message exchange, each node sends messages to its neighbors and aggregates incoming messages from its neighbors. This start to look like a neural network.<br />
<br />
Each message is transformed at each edge through a message function <math>f(·)</math>, then they are aggregated at each node via an aggregation function <math>AGG(·)</math>. Suppose we conduct <math>r</math> rounds of message exchange, then the <math>r^{th}</math> round of message exchange for a node <math>v</math> can be described as<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align:center;"><math>\mathbf{x}_v^{(r+1)}= {\rm AGG}^{(r)}(\{f_v^{(r)}(\textbf{x}_u^{(r)}), \forall u\in N(v)\})</math>.</div> <br />
<br />
where <math>\mathbf{x}^{(r+1)}</math> is the feature of of the <math>v</math> node in the relational graph after the <math>r^{th}</math> round of update. <math>u,v</math><br />
<br />
= Parameter Definition =<br />
<br />
(1) Clustering Coefficient<br />
<br />
(2) Average Path Length<br />
<br />
= Experimental Setup (Section 4 in the paper) =<br />
<br />
= Discussions and Conclusions =<br />
<br />
Section 5 of the paper summarize the result of experiment among multiple different relational graphs through sampling and analyzing.<br />
<br />
[[File:Result2_441_2020Group16.png]]<br />
<br />
== Neural networks performance depends on its structure ==<br />
In the experiment, top-1 errors are going to be used to measure the performance of the model. The parameters of the models are average path length and clustering coefficient. Heat maps was created to illustrate the difference of predictive performance among possible average path length and clustering coefficient. In Figure ???, The darker area represents a smaller top-1 error which indicate the model perform better than other area.<br />
Compare with the complete graph which has A = 1 and C = 1, The best performing relational graph can outperform the complete graph baseline by 1.4% top-1 error for MLP on CIFAR-10, and 0.5% to 1.2% for models on ImageNet. Hence it is an indicator that the predictive performance of neural network highly depends on the graph structure, or equivalently that completed graph does not always preform the best. <br />
<br />
<br />
== Sweet spot where performance is significantly improved ==<br />
To reduce the training noise, the 3942 graphs that in the sample had been grouped into 52 bin, each bin had been colored based on the average performance of graphs that fall into the bin. Based on the heat map, the well-performing graphs tend to cluster into a special spot that the paper called “sweet spot” shown in the red rectangle. <br />
<br />
== Relationship between neural network’s performance and parameters == <br />
When we visualize the heat map, we can see that there are no significant jump of performance that occurred as small change of clustering coefficient and average path length. If one of the variable is fixed in a small range, it is observed that a second degree polynomial is a good visualization tools for the overall trend. Therefore, both clustering coefficient and average path length are highly related with neural network performance by a U-shape. <br />
<br />
== Consistency among many different tasks and datasets ==<br />
It is observed that the results are consistent through different point of view. Among multiple architecture dataset, it is observed that the clustering coefficient within [0.1,0.7] and average path length with in [1.5,3] consistently outperform the baseline complete graph. <br />
<br />
Among different dataset with network that has similar clustering coefficient and average path length, the results are correlated, The paper mentioned that ResNet-34 is much more complex than 5-layer MLP but a fixed set relational graphs would perform similarly in both setting, with Pearson correlation of 0.658, the p-value for the Null hypothesis is less than 10^-8. <br />
<br />
== top architectures can be identified efficiently ==<br />
According to the graphs we have in the Key Results. We can see that there is a "sweet spot" and therefore, we do not have to train the entire data set for a large value of epoch or a really large sample. We can take a sample of the data around 52 graphs that would have a correlation of 0.9 which indicates that fewer samples are needed for a similar analysis in practice. Within 3 epochs, the correlation between the variables is already high enough for future computation.<br />
<br />
== well-performing neural networks have graph structure surprisingly similar to those of real biological neural networks==<br />
The way we define relational graphs and average length in the graph is similar to the way information is exchanged in network science. The biological neural network also has a similar relational graph representation and graph measure with the best-performing relational graph.<br />
<br />
= Critique =<br />
1. The experiment is only measuring on a single data set which might impact the conclusion since this is not representative enough.<br />
2. When we are fitting the model, training data should be randomized in each epoch to reduce the noise.</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=Adversarial_Attacks_on_Copyright_Detection_Systems&diff=44819Adversarial Attacks on Copyright Detection Systems2020-11-16T04:06:32Z<p>B22chang: /* Evaluating transfer attacks on industrial systems */</p>
<hr />
<div>== Presented by == <br />
Luwen Chang, Qingyang Yu, Tao Kong, Tianrong Sun<br />
<br />
==Introduction ==<br />
Copyright detection system is one of the most commonly used machine learning systems; however, the hardiness of copyright detection and content control systems to adversarial attacks, inputs intentionally designed by people to cause the model to make a mistake, has not been widely addressed by public. Copyright detection systems are vulnerable to attacks for three reasons.<br />
<br />
1. Unlike physical-world attacks where adversarial samples need to survive under different conditions like resolutions and viewing angles, any digital files can be uploaded directly to the web without going through a camera or microphone.<br />
<br />
2. The detection system is open which means the uploaded files may not correspond to an existing class. In this case, it will prevent people from uploading unprotected audio/video whereas most of the uploaded files nowadays are not protected.<br />
<br />
3. The detection system needs to handle a vast majority of content which have different labels but similar features. For example, in the ImageNet classification task, the system is easily attacked when there are two cats/dogs/birds with high similarities but from different classes.<br />
<br />
<br />
In this paper, different types of copyright detection systems will be introduced. A widely used detection model from Shazam, a popular app used for recognizing music, will be discussed. Next, the paper talks about how to generate audio fingerprints using convolutional neural network and formulates the adversarial loss function using standard gradient methods. An example of remixing music is given to show how adversarial examples can be created. Then the adversarial attacks are applied onto industrial systems like AudioTag and YouTube Content ID to evaluate the effectiveness of the systems, and the conclusion is made at the end.<br />
<br />
== Types of copyright detection systems ==<br />
Fingerprinting algorithm is to extract the features of the source file as a hash and then compare that to the materials protected by copyright in the database. If enough matches are found between the source and existing data, the copyright detection system is able to reject the copyright declaration of the source. Most audio, image and video fingerprinting algorithms work by training a neural network to output features or extracting hand-crafted features.<br />
<br />
In terms of video fingerprinting, a useful algorithm is to detect the entering/leaving time of the objects in the video (Saviaga & Toxtli, 2018). The final hash consists of the entering/leaving of different objects and a unique relationship of the objects. However, most of these video fingerprinting algorithms only train their neural networks by using simple distortions such as adding noise or flipping the video rather than adversarial perturbations. This leads to that these algorithms are strong against pre-defined distortions but not adversarial attacks.<br />
<br />
Moreover, some plagiarism detection systems also depend on neural networks to generate a fingerprint of the input document. Though using deep feature representations as a fingerprinting is efficient in detecting plagiarism, it still might be weak to adversarial attacks.<br />
<br />
Audio fingerprinting may perform better than the algorithms above since most of time, the hash is generated by extracting hand-crafted features rather than training a neural network. But it still is easy to attack.<br />
<br />
== Case study: evading audio fingerprinting ==<br />
<br />
=== Audio Fingerprinting Model===<br />
The audio fingerprinting model plays an important role in copyright detection. It is useful for quickly locating or finding similar samples inside an audio database. Shazam is a popular music recognization application, which uses one of the most well-known fingerprinting models. With three principles: temporally localized, translation invariant, and robustness, the Shazam algorithm is treated as a good fingerprint algorithm. It shows strong robustness even in presence of noise by using local maximum in spectrogram to form hashes.<br />
<br />
=== Interpreting the fingerprint extractor as a CNN ===<br />
The intention of this section is to build a differentiable neural network whose function resembles that of an audio fingerprinting algorithm, which is well-known for its ability to identify the meta-data, i.e. song names, artists and albums, while independent of audio format (Group et al., 2005). The generic neural network will then be used as an example of implementing black-box attacks on many popular real-world systems, in this case, YouTube and AudioTag. <br />
<br />
The generic neural network model consists of two convolutional layers and a max-pooling layer, which is used for dimension reduction. This is depicted in the figure below. As mentioned above, the convolutional neural network is well-known for its properties of temporarily localized and transformational invariant. The purpose of this network is to generate audio fingerprinting signals that extract features that uniquely identify a signal, regardless of the starting and ending time of the inputs.<br />
<br />
[[File:cov network.png | thumb | center | 500px ]]<br />
<br />
While an audio sample enters the neural network, it is first transformed by the initial network layer, which can be described as a normalized Hann function. The form of the function is shown below, with N being the width of the Kernel. <br />
<br />
$$ f_{1}(n)=\frac {sin^2(\frac{\pi n} {N})} {\sum sin^2(\frac{\pi n}{N})} $$ <br />
<br />
The intention of the normalized Hann function is to smooth the adversarial perturbation of the input audio signal, which removes the discontinuity as well as the bad spectral properties. This transformation enhances the efficiency of black-box attacks that is later implemented.<br />
<br />
The next convolutional layer applies a Short Term Fourier Transformation to the input signal by computing the spectrogram of the waveform and converts the input into a feature representation. Once the input signal enters this network layer, it is being transformed by the convolutional function below. <br />
<br />
$$f_{2}(k,n)=e^{-i 2 \pi k n / N} $$<br />
where k <math>{\in}</math> 0,1,...,N-1 (output channel index) and n <math>{\in}</math> 0,1,...,N-1 (index of filter coefficient)<br />
<br />
The output of this layer is described as φ(x) (x being the input signal), a feature representation of the audio signal sample. <br />
However, this representation is flawed due to its vulnerability to noise and perturbation, as well as its difficulty to store and inspect. Therefore, a maximum pooling layer is being implemented to φ(x), in which the network computes a local maximum using a max-pooling function. This network layer outputs a binary fingerprint ψ (x) (x being the input signal) that will be used later to search for a signal against a database of previously processed signals.<br />
<br />
=== Formulating the adversarial loss function ===<br />
<br />
In the previous section, local maxima of spectrogram are used to generate fingerprints by CNN, but a loss has not been quantified to compare how similar two fingerprints are. After the loss is found, standard gradient methods can be used to find a perturbation <math>{\delta}</math>, which can be added to a signal so that the copyright detection system will be tricked. Also, a bound is set to make sure the generated fingerprints are close enough to the original audio signal. <br />
$$\text{bound:}\ ||\delta||_p\le\epsilon$$<br />
<br />
where <math>{||\delta||_p\le\epsilon}</math> is the <math>{l_p}</math>-norm of the perturbation and <math>{\epsilon}</math> is the bound of the difference between the original file and the adversarial example. <br />
<br />
<br />
To compare how similar two binary fingerprints are, Hamming distance is employed. Hamming distance between two strings is the number of digits that are different (Hamming distance, 2020). For example, the Hamming distance between 101100 and 100110 is 2. <br />
<br />
Let <math>{\psi(x)}</math> and <math>{\psi(y)}</math> be two binary fingerprints outputted from the model, the number of peaks shared by <math>{x}</math> and <math>{y}</math> can be found through <math>{|\psi(x)\cdot\psi(y)|}</math>. Now, to get a differentiable loss function, the equation is found to be <br />
<br />
$$J(x,y)=|\phi(x)\cdot\psi(x)\cdot\psi(y)|$$<br />
<br />
<br />
This is effective for white-box attacks with knowing the fingerprinting system. However, the loss can be easily minimized by modifying the location of the peaks by one pixel, which would not be reliable to transfer to black-box industrial systems. To make it more transferable, a new loss function which involves more movements of the local maxima of the spectrogram is proposed. The idea is to move the locations of peaks in <math>{\psi(x)}</math> outside of neighborhood of the peaks of <math>{\psi(y)}</math>. In order to implement the model more efficiently, two max-pooling layers are used. One of the layers has a bigger width <math>{w_1}</math> while the other one has a smaller width <math>{w_2}</math>. For any location, if the output of <math>{w_1}</math> pooling is strictly greater than the output of <math>{w_2}</math> pooling, then it can be concluded that no peak is in that location with radius <math>{w_2}</math>. <br />
<br />
The loss function is as the following:<br />
<br />
$$J(x,y) = \sum_i\bigg(ReLU\bigg(c-\bigg(\underset{|j| \leq w_1}{\max}\phi(i+j;x)-\underset{|j| \leq w_2}{\max}\phi(i+j;x)\bigg)\bigg)\cdot\psi(i;y)\bigg)$$<br />
The equation above penalizes the peaks of <math>{x}</math> which are in neighborhood of peaks of <math>{y}</math> with radius of <math>{w_2}</math>. The activation function uses <math>{ReLU}</math>. <math>{c}</math> is the difference between the outputs of two max-pooling layers. <br />
<br />
<br />
Lastly, instead of the maximum operator, smoothed max function is used here:<br />
$$S_\alpha(x_1,x_2,...,x_n) = \frac{\sum_{i=1}^{n}x_ie^{\alpha x_i}}{\sum_{i=1}^{n}e^{\alpha x_i}}$$<br />
where <math>{\alpha}</math> is a smoothing hyper parameter. When <math>{\alpha}</math> approaches positive infinity, <math>{S_\alpha}</math> is closer to the actual max function. <br />
<br />
To summarize, the optimization problem can be formulated as the following:<br />
<br />
$$<br />
\underset{\delta}{\min}J(x+\delta,x)\\<br />
s.t.||\delta||_{\infty}\le\epsilon<br />
$$<br />
where <math>{x}</math> is the input signal, <math>{J}</math> is the loss function with the smoothed max function.<br />
<br />
=== Remix adversarial examples===<br />
While solving the optimization problem, the resulted example would be able to fool the copyright detection system. But it could sound unnatural with the perturbations.<br />
<br />
Instead, the fingerprinting could be made in a more natural way (i.e., a different audio signal). <br />
<br />
By modifying the loss function, which switches the order of the max-pooling layers in the smooth maximum components in the loss function, this remix loss function is to make two signal x and y look as similar as possible.<br />
<br />
$$J_{remix}(x,y) = \sum_i\bigg(ReLU\bigg(c-\bigg(\underset{|j| \leq w_2}{\max}\phi(i+j;x)-\underset{|j| \leq w_1}{\max}\phi(i+j;x)\bigg)\bigg)\cdot\psi(i;y)\bigg)$$<br />
<br />
By adding this new loss function, a new optimization problem could be defined. <br />
<br />
$$<br />
\underset{\delta}{\min}J(x+\delta,x) + \lambda J_{remix}(x+\delta,y)\\<br />
s.t.||\delta||_{p}\le\epsilon<br />
$$<br />
<br />
where <math>{\lambda}</math> is a scalar parameter that controls the similarity of <math>{x+\delta}</math> and <math>{y}</math>.<br />
<br />
This optimization problem is able to generate an adversarial example from the selected source, and also enforce the adversarial example to be similar to another signal. The resulting adversarial example is called Remix adversarial example because it gets the references to its source signal and another signal.<br />
<br />
== Evaluating transfer attacks on industrial systems==<br />
The effectiveness of default and remix adversarial examples is tested through white-box attacks on the proposed model and black-box attacks on two real-world audio copyright detection systems - AudioTag and YouTube “Content ID” system. <math>{l_{\infty}}</math> norm and <math>{l_{2}}</math> norm of perturbations are two measures of modification. Both of them are calculated after normalizing the signals so that the samples could lie between 0 and 1.<br />
<br />
Before evaluating black-box attacks against real-world systems, white-box attacks against our own proposed model is used to provide the baseline of adversarial examples’ effectiveness. Loss function <math>{J(x,y)=|\phi(x)\cdot\psi(x)\cdot\psi(y)|}</math> is used to generate white-box attacks. The unnoticeable fingerprints of the audio with the noise can be changed or removed by optimizing the loss function.<br />
<br />
[[File:Table_1_White-box.jpg |center ]]<br />
<br />
<div align="center">Table 1: Norms of the perturbations for white-box attacks</div><br />
<br />
In black-box attacks, the AudioTag system is found to be relatively sensitive to the attacks since it can detect the songs with a benign signal while it failed to detect both default and remix adversarial examples. The architecture of the AudioTag fingerprint model and surrogate CNN model is guessed to be similar based on the experimental observations. <br />
<br />
Similar to AudioTag, the YouTube “Content ID” system also got the result with successful identification of benign songs but failure to detect adversarial examples. However, to fool the YouTube Content ID system, a larger value of the parameter <math>{\epsilon}</math> is required. YouTube Content ID system has a more robust fingerprint model.<br />
<br />
<br />
[[File:Table_2_Black-box.jpg |center]]<br />
<br />
<div align="center">Table 2: Norms of the perturbations for black-box attacks</div><br />
<br />
[[File:YouTube_Figure.jpg |center]]<br />
<br />
<div align="center">Figure 2: YouTube’s copyright detection recall against the magnitude of noise</div><br />
<br />
== Conclusion ==<br />
In conclusion, many industrial copyright detection systems used in the popular video and music website such as YouTube and AudioTag are significantly vulnerable to adversarial attacks established in the existing literature. By building a simple music identification system resembling that of Shazam using neural network and attack it by the well-known gradient method, this paper firmly proved the lack of robustness of the current online detector. The intention of this paper is to raise the awareness of the vulnerability of the current online system to adversarial attacks and to emphasize the significance of enhancing our copyright detection system. More approach, such as adversarial training needs to be developed and examined, in order to protect us against the threat of adversarial copyright attack.<br />
<br />
== Critiques ==<br />
- The experiments in this paper appear like to be a proof-of-concept rather than a serious evaluation of a model. One problem is that the norm is used to evaluate the perturbation. Unlike the norm in image domains which can be visualized and easily understood, the perturbations in the audio domain are a more difficult to comprehend. A cognitive study or something like a user study might need be conducted in order to understand this. Another question related to this is that if the random noise is 2x bigger or 3x bigger in terms of norm, does this make huge difference when listening to it? Are these two perturbations both very obvious or both unnoticeable? In addition, it seems that a dataset is built but the stats are missing. Third, no baseline methods are being compared to in this paper, not even an ablation study. The proposed two methods (default and remix) seem to perform similarly.<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
<br />
Group, P., Cano, P., Group, M., Group, E., Batlle, E., Ton Kalker Philips Research Laboratories Eindhoven, . . . Authors: Pedro Cano Music Technology Group. (2005, November 01). A Review of Audio Fingerprinting. Retrieved November 13, 2020, from https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1007/s11265-005-4151-3<br />
<br />
Hamming distance. (2020, November 1). In ''Wikipedia''. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamming_distance<br />
<br />
Jovanovic. (2015, February 2). ''How does Shazam work? Music Recognition Algorithms, Fingerprinting, and Processing''. Toptal Engineering Blog. https://www.toptal.com/algorithms/shazam-it-music-processing-fingerprinting-and-recognition<br />
<br />
Saadatpanah, P., Shafahi, A., &amp; Goldstein, T. (2019, June 17). ''Adversarial attacks on copyright detection systems''. Retrieved November 13, 2020, from https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.07153.<br />
<br />
Saviaga, C. and Toxtli, C. ''Deepiracy: Video piracy detection system by using longest common subsequence and deep learning'', 2018. https://medium.com/hciwvu/piracy-detection-using-longestcommon-subsequence-and-neuralnetworks-a6f689a541a6<br />
<br />
Wang, A. et al. ''An industrial strength audio search algorithm''. In Ismir, volume 2003, pp. 7–13. Washington, DC, 2003.</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=Adversarial_Attacks_on_Copyright_Detection_Systems&diff=44812Adversarial Attacks on Copyright Detection Systems2020-11-16T04:01:19Z<p>B22chang: /* Audio Fingerprinting Model */</p>
<hr />
<div>== Presented by == <br />
Luwen Chang, Qingyang Yu, Tao Kong, Tianrong Sun<br />
<br />
==Introduction ==<br />
Copyright detection system is one of the most commonly used machine learning systems; however, the hardiness of copyright detection and content control systems to adversarial attacks, inputs intentionally designed by people to cause the model to make a mistake, has not been widely addressed by public. Copyright detection systems are vulnerable to attacks for three reasons.<br />
<br />
1. Unlike physical-world attacks where adversarial samples need to survive under different conditions like resolutions and viewing angles, any digital files can be uploaded directly to the web without going through a camera or microphone.<br />
<br />
2. The detection system is open which means the uploaded files may not correspond to an existing class. In this case, it will prevent people from uploading unprotected audio/video whereas most of the uploaded files nowadays are not protected.<br />
<br />
3. The detection system needs to handle a vast majority of content which have different labels but similar features. For example, in the ImageNet classification task, the system is easily attacked when there are two cats/dogs/birds with high similarities but from different classes.<br />
<br />
<br />
In this paper, different types of copyright detection systems will be introduced. A widely used detection model from Shazam, a popular app used for recognizing music, will be discussed. Next, the paper talks about how to generate audio fingerprints using convolutional neural network and formulates the adversarial loss function using standard gradient methods. An example of remixing music is given to show how adversarial examples can be created. Then the adversarial attacks are applied onto industrial systems like AudioTag and YouTube Content ID to evaluate the effectiveness of the systems, and the conclusion is made at the end.<br />
<br />
== Types of copyright detection systems ==<br />
Fingerprinting algorithm is to extract the features of the source file as a hash and then compare that to the materials protected by copyright in the database. If enough matches are found between the source and existing data, the copyright detection system is able to reject the copyright declaration of the source. Most audio, image and video fingerprinting algorithms work by training a neural network to output features or extracting hand-crafted features.<br />
<br />
In terms of video fingerprinting, a useful algorithm is to detect the entering/leaving time of the objects in the video (Saviaga & Toxtli, 2018). The final hash consists of the entering/leaving of different objects and a unique relationship of the objects. However, most of these video fingerprinting algorithms only train their neural networks by using simple distortions such as adding noise or flipping the video rather than adversarial perturbations. This leads to that these algorithms are strong against pre-defined distortions but not adversarial attacks.<br />
<br />
Moreover, some plagiarism detection systems also depend on neural networks to generate a fingerprint of the input document. Though using deep feature representations as a fingerprinting is efficient in detecting plagiarism, it still might be weak to adversarial attacks.<br />
<br />
Audio fingerprinting may perform better than the algorithms above since most of time, the hash is generated by extracting hand-crafted features rather than training a neural network. But it still is easy to attack.<br />
<br />
== Case study: evading audio fingerprinting ==<br />
<br />
=== Audio Fingerprinting Model===<br />
The audio fingerprinting model plays an important role in copyright detection. It is useful for quickly locating or finding similar samples inside an audio database. Shazam is a popular music recognization application, which uses one of the most well-known fingerprinting models. With three principles: temporally localized, translation invariant, and robustness, the Shazam algorithm is treated as a good fingerprint algorithm. It shows strong robustness even in presence of noise by using local maximum in spectrogram to form hashes.<br />
<br />
=== Interpreting the fingerprint extractor as a CNN ===<br />
The intention of this section is to build a differentiable neural network whose function resembles that of an audio fingerprinting algorithm, which is well-known for its ability to identify the meta-data, i.e. song names, artists and albums, while independent of audio format (Group et al., 2005). The generic neural network will then be used as an example of implementing black-box attacks on many popular real-world systems, in this case, YouTube and AudioTag. <br />
<br />
The generic neural network model consists of two convolutional layers and a max-pooling layer, which is used for dimension reduction. This is depicted in the figure below. As mentioned above, the convolutional neural network is well-known for its properties of temporarily localized and transformational invariant. The purpose of this network is to generate audio fingerprinting signals that extract features that uniquely identify a signal, regardless of the starting and ending time of the inputs.<br />
<br />
[[File:cov network.png | thumb | center | 500px ]]<br />
<br />
While an audio sample enters the neural network, it is first transformed by the initial network layer, which can be described as a normalized Hann function. The form of the function is shown below, with N being the width of the Kernel. <br />
<br />
$$ f_{1}(n)=\frac {sin^2(\frac{\pi n} {N})} {\sum sin^2(\frac{\pi n}{N})} $$ <br />
<br />
The intention of the normalized Hann function is to smooth the adversarial perturbation of the input audio signal, which removes the discontinuity as well as the bad spectral properties. This transformation enhances the efficiency of black-box attacks that is later implemented.<br />
<br />
The next convolutional layer applies a Short Term Fourier Transformation to the input signal by computing the spectrogram of the waveform and converts the input into a feature representation. Once the input signal enters this network layer, it is being transformed by the convolutional function below. <br />
<br />
$$f_{2}(k,n)=e^{-i 2 \pi k n / N} $$<br />
where k <math>{\in}</math> 0,1,...,N-1 (output channel index) and n <math>{\in}</math> 0,1,...,N-1 (index of filter coefficient)<br />
<br />
The output of this layer is described as φ(x) (x being the input signal), a feature representation of the audio signal sample. <br />
However, this representation is flawed due to its vulnerability to noise and perturbation, as well as its difficulty to store and inspect. Therefore, a maximum pooling layer is being implemented to φ(x), in which the network computes a local maximum using a max-pooling function. This network layer outputs a binary fingerprint ψ (x) (x being the input signal) that will be used later to search for a signal against a database of previously processed signals.<br />
<br />
=== Formulating the adversarial loss function ===<br />
<br />
In the previous section, local maxima of spectrogram are used to generate fingerprints by CNN, but a loss has not been quantified to compare how similar two fingerprints are. After the loss is found, standard gradient methods can be used to find a perturbation <math>{\delta}</math>, which can be added to a signal so that the copyright detection system will be tricked. Also, a bound is set to make sure the generated fingerprints are close enough to the original audio signal. <br />
$$\text{bound:}\ ||\delta||_p\le\epsilon$$<br />
<br />
where <math>{||\delta||_p\le\epsilon}</math> is the <math>{l_p}</math>-norm of the perturbation and <math>{\epsilon}</math> is the bound of the difference between the original file and the adversarial example. <br />
<br />
<br />
To compare how similar two binary fingerprints are, Hamming distance is employed. Hamming distance between two strings is the number of digits that are different (Hamming distance, 2020). For example, the Hamming distance between 101100 and 100110 is 2. <br />
<br />
Let <math>{\psi(x)}</math> and <math>{\psi(y)}</math> be two binary fingerprints outputted from the model, the number of peaks shared by <math>{x}</math> and <math>{y}</math> can be found through <math>{|\psi(x)\cdot\psi(y)|}</math>. Now, to get a differentiable loss function, the equation is found to be <br />
<br />
$$J(x,y)=|\phi(x)\cdot\psi(x)\cdot\psi(y)|$$<br />
<br />
<br />
This is effective for white-box attacks with knowing the fingerprinting system. However, the loss can be easily minimized by modifying the location of the peaks by one pixel, which would not be reliable to transfer to black-box industrial systems. To make it more transferable, a new loss function which involves more movements of the local maxima of the spectrogram is proposed. The idea is to move the locations of peaks in <math>{\psi(x)}</math> outside of neighborhood of the peaks of <math>{\psi(y)}</math>. In order to implement the model more efficiently, two max-pooling layers are used. One of the layers has a bigger width <math>{w_1}</math> while the other one has a smaller width <math>{w_2}</math>. For any location, if the output of <math>{w_1}</math> pooling is strictly greater than the output of <math>{w_2}</math> pooling, then it can be concluded that no peak is in that location with radius <math>{w_2}</math>. <br />
<br />
The loss function is as the following:<br />
<br />
$$J(x,y) = \sum_i\bigg(ReLU\bigg(c-\bigg(\underset{|j| \leq w_1}{\max}\phi(i+j;x)-\underset{|j| \leq w_2}{\max}\phi(i+j;x)\bigg)\bigg)\cdot\psi(i;y)\bigg)$$<br />
The equation above penalizes the peaks of <math>{x}</math> which are in neighborhood of peaks of <math>{y}</math> with radius of <math>{w_2}</math>. The activation function uses <math>{ReLU}</math>. <math>{c}</math> is the difference between the outputs of two max-pooling layers. <br />
<br />
<br />
Lastly, instead of the maximum operator, smoothed max function is used here:<br />
$$S_\alpha(x_1,x_2,...,x_n) = \frac{\sum_{i=1}^{n}x_ie^{\alpha x_i}}{\sum_{i=1}^{n}e^{\alpha x_i}}$$<br />
where <math>{\alpha}</math> is a smoothing hyper parameter. When <math>{\alpha}</math> approaches positive infinity, <math>{S_\alpha}</math> is closer to the actual max function. <br />
<br />
To summarize, the optimization problem can be formulated as the following:<br />
<br />
$$<br />
\underset{\delta}{\min}J(x+\delta,x)\\<br />
s.t.||\delta||_{\infty}\le\epsilon<br />
$$<br />
where <math>{x}</math> is the input signal, <math>{J}</math> is the loss function with the smoothed max function.<br />
<br />
=== Remix adversarial examples===<br />
While solving the optimization problem, the resulted example would be able to fool the copyright detection system. But it could sound unnatural with the perturbations.<br />
<br />
Instead, the fingerprinting could be made in a more natural way (i.e., a different audio signal). <br />
<br />
By modifying the loss function, which switches the order of the max-pooling layers in the smooth maximum components in the loss function, this remix loss function is to make two signal x and y look as similar as possible.<br />
<br />
$$J_{remix}(x,y) = \sum_i\bigg(ReLU\bigg(c-\bigg(\underset{|j| \leq w_2}{\max}\phi(i+j;x)-\underset{|j| \leq w_1}{\max}\phi(i+j;x)\bigg)\bigg)\cdot\psi(i;y)\bigg)$$<br />
<br />
By adding this new loss function, a new optimization problem could be defined. <br />
<br />
$$<br />
\underset{\delta}{\min}J(x+\delta,x) + \lambda J_{remix}(x+\delta,y)\\<br />
s.t.||\delta||_{p}\le\epsilon<br />
$$<br />
<br />
where <math>{\lambda}</math> is a scalar parameter that controls the similarity of <math>{x+\delta}</math> and <math>{y}</math>.<br />
<br />
This optimization problem is able to generate an adversarial example from the selected source, and also enforce the adversarial example to be similar to another signal. The resulting adversarial example is called Remix adversarial example because it gets the references to its source signal and another signal.<br />
<br />
== Evaluating transfer attacks on industrial systems==<br />
The effectiveness of default and remix adversarial examples is tested through white-box attacks on the proposed model and black-box attacks on two real-world audio copyright detection systems - AudioTag and YouTube “Content ID” system. <math>{l_{\infty}}</math> norm and <math>{l_{2}}</math> norm of perturbations are two measures of modification. Both of them are calculated after normalizing the signals so that the samples could lie between 0 and 1.<br />
<br />
Before evaluating black-box attacks against real-world systems, white-box attacks are used to provide the baseline of adversarial examples’ effectiveness. Loss function <math>{J(x,y)=|\phi(x)\cdot\psi(x)\cdot\psi(y)|}</math> is used to generate white-box attacks. The unnoticeable fingerprints of the audio with the noise can be changed or removed by optimizing the loss function.<br />
<br />
[[File:Table_1_White-box.jpg |center ]]<br />
<br />
<div align="center">Table 1: Norms of the perturbations for white-box attacks</div><br />
<br />
In black-box attacks, the AudioTag system is found to be relatively sensitive to the attacks since it can detect the songs with a benign signal while it failed to detect both default and remix adversarial examples. The architecture of the AudioTag fingerprint model and surrogate CNN model is guessed to be similar based on the experimental observations. <br />
<br />
Similar to AudioTag, the YouTube “Content ID” system also got the result with successful identification of benign songs but failure to detect adversarial examples. However, to fool the YouTube Content ID system, a larger value of the parameter <math>{\epsilon}</math> is required. YouTube Content ID system has a more robust fingerprint model.<br />
<br />
<br />
[[File:Table_2_Black-box.jpg |center]]<br />
<br />
<div align="center">Table 2: Norms of the perturbations for black-box attacks</div><br />
<br />
[[File:YouTube_Figure.jpg |center]]<br />
<br />
<div align="center">Figure 2: YouTube’s copyright detection recall against the magnitude of noise</div><br />
<br />
== Conclusion ==<br />
In conclusion, many industrial copyright detection systems used in the popular video and music website such as YouTube and AudioTag are significantly vulnerable to adversarial attacks established in the existing literature. By building a simple music identification system resembling that of Shazam using neural network and attack it by the well-known gradient method, this paper firmly proved the lack of robustness of the current online detector. The intention of this paper is to raise the awareness of the vulnerability of the current online system to adversarial attacks and to emphasize the significance of enhancing our copyright detection system. More approach, such as adversarial training needs to be developed and examined, in order to protect us against the threat of adversarial copyright attack.<br />
<br />
== Critiques ==<br />
- The experiments in this paper appear like to be a proof-of-concept rather than a serious evaluation of a model. One problem is that the norm is used to evaluate the perturbation. Unlike the norm in image domains which can be visualized and easily understood, the perturbations in the audio domain are a more difficult to comprehend. A cognitive study or something like a user study might need be conducted in order to understand this. Another question related to this is that if the random noise is 2x bigger or 3x bigger in terms of norm, does this make huge difference when listening to it? Are these two perturbations both very obvious or both unnoticeable? In addition, it seems that a dataset is built but the stats are missing. Third, no baseline methods are being compared to in this paper, not even an ablation study. The proposed two methods (default and remix) seem to perform similarly.<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
<br />
Group, P., Cano, P., Group, M., Group, E., Batlle, E., Ton Kalker Philips Research Laboratories Eindhoven, . . . Authors: Pedro Cano Music Technology Group. (2005, November 01). A Review of Audio Fingerprinting. Retrieved November 13, 2020, from https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1007/s11265-005-4151-3<br />
<br />
Hamming distance. (2020, November 1). In ''Wikipedia''. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamming_distance<br />
<br />
Jovanovic. (2015, February 2). ''How does Shazam work? Music Recognition Algorithms, Fingerprinting, and Processing''. Toptal Engineering Blog. https://www.toptal.com/algorithms/shazam-it-music-processing-fingerprinting-and-recognition<br />
<br />
Saadatpanah, P., Shafahi, A., &amp; Goldstein, T. (2019, June 17). ''Adversarial attacks on copyright detection systems''. Retrieved November 13, 2020, from https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.07153.<br />
<br />
Saviaga, C. and Toxtli, C. ''Deepiracy: Video piracy detection system by using longest common subsequence and deep learning'', 2018. https://medium.com/hciwvu/piracy-detection-using-longestcommon-subsequence-and-neuralnetworks-a6f689a541a6<br />
<br />
Wang, A. et al. ''An industrial strength audio search algorithm''. In Ismir, volume 2003, pp. 7–13. Washington, DC, 2003.</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=Task_Understanding_from_Confusing_Multi-task_Data&diff=44810Task Understanding from Confusing Multi-task Data2020-11-16T03:56:21Z<p>B22chang: /* Multi-label learning */</p>
<hr />
<div>'''Presented By'''<br />
<br />
Qianlin Song, William Loh, Junyue Bai, Phoebe Choi<br />
<br />
= Introduction =<br />
<br />
Narrow AI is an artificial intelligence that outperforms human in a narrowly defined task, for example, self-driving cars and Google assistant. While these machines help companies improve efficiency and cut costs, the limitations of Narrow AI encouraged researchers to look into General AI. <br />
<br />
General AI is a machine that can apply its learning to different contexts, which closely resembles human intelligence. This paper attempts to generalize the multi-task learning system, a system that allows the machine to learn from data from multiple classification tasks. One application is image recognition. In figure 1, an image of an apple corresponds to 3 labels: “red”, “apple” and “sweet”. These labels correspond to 3 different classification tasks: color, fruit, and taste. <br />
<br />
[[File:CSLFigure1.PNG | 500px]]<br />
<br />
Currently, multi-task machines require researchers to construct task definition. Otherwise, it will end up with different outputs with the same input value. Researchers manually assign tasks to each input in the sample to train the machine. See figure 1(a). This method incurs high annotation costs and restricts the machine’s ability to mirror the human recognition process. This paper is interested in developing an algorithm that understands task concepts and performs multi-task learning without manual task annotations. <br />
<br />
This paper proposed a new learning method called confusing supervised learning (CSL) which includes 2 functions: de-confusing function and mapping function. The first function allocates identifies an input to its respective task and the latter finds the relationship between the input and its label. See figure 1(b). To train a network of CSL, CSL-Net is constructed for representing CSL’s variables. However, this structure cannot be optimized by gradient back-propagation. This difficulty is solved by alternatively performing training for the de-confusing net and mapping net optimization. <br />
<br />
Experiments for function regression and image recognition problems were constructed and compared with multi-task learning with complete information to test CSL-Net’s performance. Experiment results show that CSL-Net can learn multiple mappings for every task simultaneously and achieved the same cognition result as the current multi-task machine sigh complete information.<br />
<br />
= Related Work =<br />
<br />
[[File:CSLFigure2.PNG | 700px]]<br />
<br />
==Multi-task learning==<br />
Multi-task learning aims to learn multiple tasks simultaneously using a shared feature representation. By exploiting similarities and differences between tasks, the learning from one task can improve the learning of another task. (Caruana, 1997) This results in improved learning efficiency. Multi-task learning is used in disciplines like computer vision, natural language processing, and reinforcement learning. Multi-task learning requires manual task annotation to learn and this paper is interested in machine learning without a clear task definition and manual task annotation.<br />
<br />
= Latent variable learning =<br />
Latent variable learning aims to estimate the true function with mixed probability models. See figure 2a. In the multi-task learning problem without task annotations, samples are generated from multiple distributions instead of one distribution. Thus, latent variable learning is insufficient to solve the research problem. <br />
<br />
==Multi-label learning==<br />
Multi-label learning aims to assign an input to a set of classes/labels. See figure 2b. It is a generalization of multi-class classification, which classifies an input into one class. In multi-label learning, an input can be classified into more than one class. Unlike multi-task learning, multi-label does not consider the relationship between different label judgments and it is assumed that each judgment is independent.<br />
<br />
= Confusing Supervised Learning =<br />
<br />
== Description of the Problem ==<br />
<br />
Confusing supervised learning (CSL) offers a solution to the issue at hand. A major area of improvement can be seen in the choice of risk measure. In traditional supervised learning, assuming the risk measure is mean squared error (MSE), the expected risk functional is<br />
<br />
$$ R(g) = \int_x (f(x) - g(x))^2 p(x) \; \mathrm{d}x $$<br />
<br />
where <math>p(x)</math> is the prior distribution of the input variable <math>x</math>. In practice, model optimizations are performed using the empirical risk<br />
<br />
$$ R_e(g) = \sum_{i=1}^n (y_i - g(x_i))^2 $$<br />
<br />
When the problem involves different tasks, the model should optimize for each data point depending on the given task. Let <math>f_j(x)</math> be the true ground-truth function for each task <math> j </math>. Therefore, for some input variable <math> x_i </math>, an ideal model <math>g</math> would predict <math> g(x_i) = f_j(x_i) </math>. With this, the risk functional can be modified to fit this new task for traditional supervised learning methods.<br />
<br />
$$ R(g) = \int_x \sum_{j=1}^n (f_j(x) - g(x))^2 p(f_j) p(x) \; \mathrm{d}x $$<br />
<br />
We call <math> (f_j(x) - g(x))^2 p(f_j) </math> the '''confusing multiple mappings'''. Then the optimal solution <math>g^*(x)</math> to the mapping is <math>\bar{f}(x) = \sum_{j=1}^n p(f_j) f_j(x)</math> under this risk functional. However, the optimal solution is not conditional on the specific task at hand but rather on the entire ground-truth functions. Therefore, for every non-trivial set of tasks where <math>f_u(x) \neq f_v(x)</math> for some input <math>x</math> and <math>u \neq v</math>, <math>R(g^*) > 0</math> which implies that there is an unavoidable confusion risk.<br />
<br />
== Learning Functions of CSL ==<br />
<br />
To overcome this issue, the authors introduce two types of learning functions:<br />
* '''Deconfusing function''' &mdash; allocation of which samples come from the same task<br />
* '''Mapping function''' &mdash; mapping relation from input to output of every learned task<br />
<br />
Suppose there are <math>n</math> ground-truth mappings <math>\{f_j : 1 \leq j \leq n\}</math> that we wish to approximate with a set of mapping functions <math>\{g_k : 1 \leq k \leq l\}</math>. The authors define the deconfusing function as an indicator function <math>h(x, y, g_k) </math> which takes some sample <math>(x,y)</math> and determines whether the sample is assigned to task <math>g_k</math>. Under the CSL framework, the risk functional (mean squared loss) is <br />
<br />
$$ R(g,h) = \int_x \sum_{j,k} (f_j(x) - g_k(x))^2 \; h(x, f_j(x), g_k) \;p(f_j) \; p(x) \;\mathrm{d}x $$<br />
<br />
which can be estimated empirically with<br />
<br />
$$R_e(g,h) = \sum_{i=1}^m \sum_{k=1}^n |y_i - g_k(x_i)|^2 \cdot h(x_i, y_i, g_k) $$<br />
<br />
== Theoretical Results ==<br />
<br />
This novel framework yields some theoretical results to show the viability of its construction.<br />
<br />
'''Theorem 1 (Existence of Solution)'''<br />
''With the confusing supervised learning framework, there is an optimal solution''<br />
$$h^*(x, f_j(x), g_k) = \mathbb{I}[j=k]$$<br />
<br />
$$g_k^*(x) = f_k(x)$$<br />
<br />
''for each <math>k=1,..., n</math> that makes the expected risk function of the CSL problem zero.''<br />
<br />
'''Theorem 2 (Error Bound of CSL)'''<br />
''With probability at least <math>1 - \eta</math> simultaneously with finite VC dimension <math>\tau</math> of CSL learning framework, the risk measure is bounded by<br />
<br />
$$R(\alpha) \leq R_e(\alpha) + \frac{B\epsilon(m)}{2} \left(1 + \sqrt{1 + \frac{4R_e(\alpha)}{B\epsilon(m)}}\right)$$<br />
<br />
''where <math>\alpha</math> is the total parameters of learning functions <math>g, h</math>, <math>B</math> is the upper bound of one sample's risk, <math>m</math> is the size of training data and''<br />
$$\epsilon(m) = 4 \; \frac{\tau (\ln \frac{2m}{\tau} + 1) - \ln \eta / 4}{m}$$<br />
<br />
= CSL-Net =<br />
In this section the authors describe how to implement and train a network for CSL.<br />
<br />
== The Structure of CSL-Net ==<br />
Two neural networks, deconfusing-net and mapping-net are trained to implement two learning function variables in empirical risk. The optimization target of the training algorithm is:<br />
$$\min_{g, h} R_e = \sum_{i=1}^{m}\sum_{k=1}^{n} (y_i - g_k(x_i))^2 \cdot h(x_k, y_k; g_k)$$<br />
<br />
The mapping-net is corresponding to functions set <math>g_k</math>, where <math>y_k = g_k(x)</math> represents the output of one certain task. The deconfusing-net is corresponding to function h, whose input is a sample <math>(x,y)</math> and output is an n-dimensional one-hot vector. This output vector determines which task the sample <math>(x,y)</math> should be assigned to. The core difficulty of this algorithm is that the risk function cannot be optimized by gradient back-propagation due to the constraint of one-hot output from deconfusing-net. Approximation of softmax will lead the deconfusing-net output into a non-one-hot form, which resulting in meaningless trivial solutions.<br />
<br />
<br />
== Iterative Deconfusing Algorithm ==<br />
To overcome the training difficulty, the authors divide the empirical risk minimization into two local optimization problems. In each single-network optimization step, the parameters of one network is updated while the parameters of another remain fixed. With one network's parameters unchanged, the problem can be solved by a gradient descent method of neural networks. <br />
<br />
'''Training of Mapping-Net''': With function h from deconfusing-net being determined, the goal is to train every mapping function <math>g_k</math> with its corresponding sample <math>(x_i^k, y_j^k)</math>. The optimization problem becomes: <math>\displaystyle \min_{g_k} L_{map}(g_k) = \sum_{i=1}^{m_k} \mid y_i^k - g_k(x_i^k)\mid^2</math>. Back-propagation algorithm can be applied to solve this optimization problem.<br />
<br />
'''Training of Deconfusing-Net''': The task allocation is re-evaluated during the training phase while the parameters of the mapping-net remain fixed. To minimize the original risk, every sample <math>(x, y)</math> will be assigned to <math>g_k</math> that is closest to label y among all different <math>k</math>s. Mapping-net thus provides a temporary solution for deconfusing-net: <math>\hat{h}(x_i, y_i) = arg \displaystyle\min_{k} \mid y_i - g_k(x_i)\mid^2</math>. The optimization becomes: <math>\displaystyle \min_{h} L_{dec}(h) = \sum_{i=1}^{m} \mid {h}(x_i, y_i) - \hat{h}(x_i, y_i)\mid^2</math>. Similarly, the optimization problem can be solved by updating the deconfusing-net with a back-propagation algorithm.<br />
<br />
The two optimization stages are carried out alternately until the solution converges.<br />
<br />
=Experiment=<br />
==Setup==<br />
<br />
3 data sets are used to compare CSL to existing methods, 1 function regression task and 2 image classification tasks. <br />
<br />
'''Function Regression''': The function regression data comes in the form of <math>(x_i,y_i),i=1,...,m</math> pairs. However, unlike typical regression problems, there are multiple <math>f_j(x),j=1,...,n</math> mapping functions, so the goal is to recover both the mapping functions <math>f_j</math> as well as determine which mapping function corresponds to each of the <math>m</math> observations. 3 scalar-valued, scalar-input functions that intersect at several points with each other have been chosen as the different tasks. <br />
<br />
'''Colorful-MNIST''': The first image classification data set consists of the MNIST digit data that has been colored. Each observation in this modified set consists of a colored image (<math>x_i</math>) and either the color, or the digit it represents (<math>y_i</math>). The goal is to recover the classification task ("color" or "digit") for each observation and construct the 2 classifiers for both tasks. <br />
<br />
'''Kaggle Fashion Product''': This data set has more observations than the "colored-MNIST" data and consists of pictures labelled with either the “Gender”, “Category”, and “Color” of the clothing item.<br />
<br />
==Use of Pre-Trained CNN Feature Layers==<br />
<br />
In the Kaggle Fashion Product experiment, each of the 3 classification algorithms <math>f_j</math> consist of fully-connected layers that have been attached to feature-identifying layers from pre-trained Convolutional Neural Networks.<br />
<br />
==Metrics of Confusing Supervised Learning==<br />
<br />
There are two measures of accuracy used to evaluate and compare CSL to other methods, corresponding respectively to the accuracy of the task labelling and the accuracy of the learned mapping function. <br />
<br />
'''Label Assignment Accuracy''': <math>\alpha_T(j)</math> is the average number of times the learned deconfusing function <math>h</math> agrees with the task-assignment ability of humans <math>\tilde h</math> on whether each observation in the data "is" or "is not" in task <math>j</math>.<br />
<br />
$$ \alpha_T(j) = \operatorname{max}_k\frac{1}{m}\sum_{i=1}^m I[h(x_i,y_i;f_k),\tilde h(x_i,y_i;f_j)]$$<br />
<br />
The max over <math>k</math> is taken because we need to determine which learned task corresponds to which ground-truth task.<br />
<br />
'''Mapping Function Accuracy''': <math>\alpha_T(j)</math> again chooses <math>f_k</math>, the learned mapping function that is closest to the ground-truth of task <math>j</math>, and measures its average absolute accuracy compared to the ground-truth of task <math>j</math>, <math>f_j</math>, across all <math>m</math> observations.<br />
<br />
$$ \alpha_L(j) = \operatorname{max}_k\frac{1}{m}\sum_{i=1}^m 1-\dfrac{|g_k(x_i)-f_j(x_i)|}{|f_j(x_i)|}$$<br />
<br />
==Results==<br />
<br />
Given confusing data, CSL performs better than traditional supervised learning methods, Pseudo-Label(Lee, 2013), and SMiLE(Tan et al., 2017). This is demonstrated by CSL's <math>\alpha_L</math> scores of around 95%, compared to <math>\alpha_L</math> scores of under 50% for the other methods. This supports the assertion that traditional methods only learn the means of all the ground-truth mapping functions when presented with confusing data.<br />
<br />
'''Function Regression''': In order to "correctly" partition the observations into the correct tasks, a 5-shot warm-up was used. <br />
<br />
'''Image Classification''': Visualizations created through Spectral embedding confirm the task labelling proficiency of the deconfusing neural network <math>h</math>.<br />
<br />
The classification and function prediction accuracy of CSL are comparable to supervised learning programs that have been given access to the ground-truth labels.<br />
<br />
==Application of Multi-label Learning==<br />
<br />
CSL also had better accuracy than traditional supervised learning methods, Pseudo-Label(Lee, 2013), and SMiLE(Tan et al., 2017) when presented with multi-labelled data <math>(x_i,y_i)</math>, where <math>y_i</math> is a <math>n</math>-long vector containing the correct output for each task.<br />
<br />
= Conclusion =<br />
<br />
This paper proposes the CSL method for tackling the multi-task learning problem with manual task annotations in the input data. The model obtains a basic task concept by differentiating multiple mappings. The paper also demonstrates that the CSL method is an important step to moving from Narrow AI towards General AI for multi-task learning.<br />
<br />
= Critique =<br />
<br />
The classification accuracy of CSL was made with algorithms not designed to deal with confusing data and which do not first classify the task of each observation.<br />
<br />
Human task annotation is also imperfect, so one additional application of CSL may be to attempt to flag task annotation errors made by humans, such as in sorting comments for items sold by online retailers; concerned customers in particular may not correctly label their comments as "refund", "order didn't arrive", "order damaged", "how good the item is" etc.<br />
<br />
= References =<br />
<br />
Su, Xin, et al. "Task Understanding from Confusing Multi-task Data."<br />
<br />
Caruana, R. (1997) "Multi-task learning"<br />
<br />
Lee, D.-H. Pseudo-label: The simple and efficient semi-supervised learning method for deep neural networks. Workshop on challenges in representation learning, ICML, vol. 3, 2013, pp. 2–8. <br />
<br />
Tan, Q., Yu, Y., Yu, G., and Wang, J. Semi-supervised multi-label classification using incomplete label information. Neurocomputing, vol. 260, 2017, pp. 192–202.</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=Task_Understanding_from_Confusing_Multi-task_Data&diff=44808Task Understanding from Confusing Multi-task Data2020-11-16T03:49:50Z<p>B22chang: /* Introduction */</p>
<hr />
<div>'''Presented By'''<br />
<br />
Qianlin Song, William Loh, Junyue Bai, Phoebe Choi<br />
<br />
= Introduction =<br />
<br />
Narrow AI is an artificial intelligence that outperforms human in a narrowly defined task, for example, self-driving cars and Google assistant. While these machines help companies improve efficiency and cut costs, the limitations of Narrow AI encouraged researchers to look into General AI. <br />
<br />
General AI is a machine that can apply its learning to different contexts, which closely resembles human intelligence. This paper attempts to generalize the multi-task learning system, a system that allows the machine to learn from data from multiple classification tasks. One application is image recognition. In figure 1, an image of an apple corresponds to 3 labels: “red”, “apple” and “sweet”. These labels correspond to 3 different classification tasks: color, fruit, and taste. <br />
<br />
[[File:CSLFigure1.PNG | 500px]]<br />
<br />
Currently, multi-task machines require researchers to construct task definition. Otherwise, it will end up with different outputs with the same input value. Researchers manually assign tasks to each input in the sample to train the machine. See figure 1(a). This method incurs high annotation costs and restricts the machine’s ability to mirror the human recognition process. This paper is interested in developing an algorithm that understands task concepts and performs multi-task learning without manual task annotations. <br />
<br />
This paper proposed a new learning method called confusing supervised learning (CSL) which includes 2 functions: de-confusing function and mapping function. The first function allocates identifies an input to its respective task and the latter finds the relationship between the input and its label. See figure 1(b). To train a network of CSL, CSL-Net is constructed for representing CSL’s variables. However, this structure cannot be optimized by gradient back-propagation. This difficulty is solved by alternatively performing training for the de-confusing net and mapping net optimization. <br />
<br />
Experiments for function regression and image recognition problems were constructed and compared with multi-task learning with complete information to test CSL-Net’s performance. Experiment results show that CSL-Net can learn multiple mappings for every task simultaneously and achieved the same cognition result as the current multi-task machine sigh complete information.<br />
<br />
= Related Work =<br />
<br />
[[File:CSLFigure2.PNG | 700px]]<br />
<br />
==Multi-task learning==<br />
Multi-task learning aims to learn multiple tasks simultaneously using a shared feature representation. By exploiting similarities and differences between tasks, the learning from one task can improve the learning of another task. (Caruana, 1997) This results in improved learning efficiency. Multi-task learning is used in disciplines like computer vision, natural language processing, and reinforcement learning. Multi-task learning requires manual task annotation to learn and this paper is interested in machine learning without a clear task definition and manual task annotation.<br />
<br />
= Latent variable learning =<br />
Latent variable learning aims to estimate the true function with mixed probability models. See figure 2a. In the multi-task learning problem without task annotations, samples are generated from multiple distributions instead of one distribution. Thus, latent variable learning is insufficient to solve the research problem. <br />
<br />
==Multi-label learning==<br />
Multi-label learning aims to assign an input to a set of classes/labels. See figure 2b. It is a generalization of multi-class classification, which classifies an input into one class. In multi-label learning, an input can be classified into more than one class. Unlike multi-task learning, multi-label does not consider the relationship between different label judgments.<br />
<br />
= Confusing Supervised Learning =<br />
<br />
== Description of the Problem ==<br />
<br />
Confusing supervised learning (CSL) offers a solution to the issue at hand. A major area of improvement can be seen in the choice of risk measure. In traditional supervised learning, assuming the risk measure is mean squared error (MSE), the expected risk functional is<br />
<br />
$$ R(g) = \int_x (f(x) - g(x))^2 p(x) \; \mathrm{d}x $$<br />
<br />
where <math>p(x)</math> is the prior distribution of the input variable <math>x</math>. In practice, model optimizations are performed using the empirical risk<br />
<br />
$$ R_e(g) = \sum_{i=1}^n (y_i - g(x_i))^2 $$<br />
<br />
When the problem involves different tasks, the model should optimize for each data point depending on the given task. Let <math>f_j(x)</math> be the true ground-truth function for each task <math> j </math>. Therefore, for some input variable <math> x_i </math>, an ideal model <math>g</math> would predict <math> g(x_i) = f_j(x_i) </math>. With this, the risk functional can be modified to fit this new task for traditional supervised learning methods.<br />
<br />
$$ R(g) = \int_x \sum_{j=1}^n (f_j(x) - g(x))^2 p(f_j) p(x) \; \mathrm{d}x $$<br />
<br />
We call <math> (f_j(x) - g(x))^2 p(f_j) </math> the '''confusing multiple mappings'''. Then the optimal solution <math>g^*(x)</math> to the mapping is <math>\bar{f}(x) = \sum_{j=1}^n p(f_j) f_j(x)</math> under this risk functional. However, the optimal solution is not conditional on the specific task at hand but rather on the entire ground-truth functions. Therefore, for every non-trivial set of tasks where <math>f_u(x) \neq f_v(x)</math> for some input <math>x</math> and <math>u \neq v</math>, <math>R(g^*) > 0</math> which implies that there is an unavoidable confusion risk.<br />
<br />
== Learning Functions of CSL ==<br />
<br />
To overcome this issue, the authors introduce two types of learning functions:<br />
* '''Deconfusing function''' &mdash; allocation of which samples come from the same task<br />
* '''Mapping function''' &mdash; mapping relation from input to output of every learned task<br />
<br />
Suppose there are <math>n</math> ground-truth mappings <math>\{f_j : 1 \leq j \leq n\}</math> that we wish to approximate with a set of mapping functions <math>\{g_k : 1 \leq k \leq l\}</math>. The authors define the deconfusing function as an indicator function <math>h(x, y, g_k) </math> which takes some sample <math>(x,y)</math> and determines whether the sample is assigned to task <math>g_k</math>. Under the CSL framework, the risk functional (mean squared loss) is <br />
<br />
$$ R(g,h) = \int_x \sum_{j,k} (f_j(x) - g_k(x))^2 \; h(x, f_j(x), g_k) \;p(f_j) \; p(x) \;\mathrm{d}x $$<br />
<br />
which can be estimated empirically with<br />
<br />
$$R_e(g,h) = \sum_{i=1}^m \sum_{k=1}^n |y_i - g_k(x_i)|^2 \cdot h(x_i, y_i, g_k) $$<br />
<br />
== Theoretical Results ==<br />
<br />
This novel framework yields some theoretical results to show the viability of its construction.<br />
<br />
'''Theorem 1 (Existence of Solution)'''<br />
''With the confusing supervised learning framework, there is an optimal solution''<br />
$$h^*(x, f_j(x), g_k) = \mathbb{I}[j=k]$$<br />
<br />
$$g_k^*(x) = f_k(x)$$<br />
<br />
''for each <math>k=1,..., n</math> that makes the expected risk function of the CSL problem zero.''<br />
<br />
'''Theorem 2 (Error Bound of CSL)'''<br />
''With probability at least <math>1 - \eta</math> simultaneously with finite VC dimension <math>\tau</math> of CSL learning framework, the risk measure is bounded by<br />
<br />
$$R(\alpha) \leq R_e(\alpha) + \frac{B\epsilon(m)}{2} \left(1 + \sqrt{1 + \frac{4R_e(\alpha)}{B\epsilon(m)}}\right)$$<br />
<br />
''where <math>\alpha</math> is the total parameters of learning functions <math>g, h</math>, <math>B</math> is the upper bound of one sample's risk, <math>m</math> is the size of training data and''<br />
$$\epsilon(m) = 4 \; \frac{\tau (\ln \frac{2m}{\tau} + 1) - \ln \eta / 4}{m}$$<br />
<br />
= CSL-Net =<br />
In this section the authors describe how to implement and train a network for CSL.<br />
<br />
== The Structure of CSL-Net ==<br />
Two neural networks, deconfusing-net and mapping-net are trained to implement two learning function variables in empirical risk. The optimization target of the training algorithm is:<br />
$$\min_{g, h} R_e = \sum_{i=1}^{m}\sum_{k=1}^{n} (y_i - g_k(x_i))^2 \cdot h(x_k, y_k; g_k)$$<br />
<br />
The mapping-net is corresponding to functions set <math>g_k</math>, where <math>y_k = g_k(x)</math> represents the output of one certain task. The deconfusing-net is corresponding to function h, whose input is a sample <math>(x,y)</math> and output is an n-dimensional one-hot vector. This output vector determines which task the sample <math>(x,y)</math> should be assigned to. The core difficulty of this algorithm is that the risk function cannot be optimized by gradient back-propagation due to the constraint of one-hot output from deconfusing-net. Approximation of softmax will lead the deconfusing-net output into a non-one-hot form, which resulting in meaningless trivial solutions.<br />
<br />
<br />
== Iterative Deconfusing Algorithm ==<br />
To overcome the training difficulty, the authors divide the empirical risk minimization into two local optimization problems. In each single-network optimization step, the parameters of one network is updated while the parameters of another remain fixed. With one network's parameters unchanged, the problem can be solved by a gradient descent method of neural networks. <br />
<br />
'''Training of Mapping-Net''': With function h from deconfusing-net being determined, the goal is to train every mapping function <math>g_k</math> with its corresponding sample <math>(x_i^k, y_j^k)</math>. The optimization problem becomes: <math>\displaystyle \min_{g_k} L_{map}(g_k) = \sum_{i=1}^{m_k} \mid y_i^k - g_k(x_i^k)\mid^2</math>. Back-propagation algorithm can be applied to solve this optimization problem.<br />
<br />
'''Training of Deconfusing-Net''': The task allocation is re-evaluated during the training phase while the parameters of the mapping-net remain fixed. To minimize the original risk, every sample <math>(x, y)</math> will be assigned to <math>g_k</math> that is closest to label y among all different <math>k</math>s. Mapping-net thus provides a temporary solution for deconfusing-net: <math>\hat{h}(x_i, y_i) = arg \displaystyle\min_{k} \mid y_i - g_k(x_i)\mid^2</math>. The optimization becomes: <math>\displaystyle \min_{h} L_{dec}(h) = \sum_{i=1}^{m} \mid {h}(x_i, y_i) - \hat{h}(x_i, y_i)\mid^2</math>. Similarly, the optimization problem can be solved by updating the deconfusing-net with a back-propagation algorithm.<br />
<br />
The two optimization stages are carried out alternately until the solution converges.<br />
<br />
=Experiment=<br />
==Setup==<br />
<br />
3 data sets are used to compare CSL to existing methods, 1 function regression task and 2 image classification tasks. <br />
<br />
'''Function Regression''': The function regression data comes in the form of <math>(x_i,y_i),i=1,...,m</math> pairs. However, unlike typical regression problems, there are multiple <math>f_j(x),j=1,...,n</math> mapping functions, so the goal is to recover both the mapping functions <math>f_j</math> as well as determine which mapping function corresponds to each of the <math>m</math> observations. 3 scalar-valued, scalar-input functions that intersect at several points with each other have been chosen as the different tasks. <br />
<br />
'''Colorful-MNIST''': The first image classification data set consists of the MNIST digit data that has been colored. Each observation in this modified set consists of a colored image (<math>x_i</math>) and either the color, or the digit it represents (<math>y_i</math>). The goal is to recover the classification task ("color" or "digit") for each observation and construct the 2 classifiers for both tasks. <br />
<br />
'''Kaggle Fashion Product''': This data set has more observations than the "colored-MNIST" data and consists of pictures labelled with either the “Gender”, “Category”, and “Color” of the clothing item.<br />
<br />
==Use of Pre-Trained CNN Feature Layers==<br />
<br />
In the Kaggle Fashion Product experiment, each of the 3 classification algorithms <math>f_j</math> consist of fully-connected layers that have been attached to feature-identifying layers from pre-trained Convolutional Neural Networks.<br />
<br />
==Metrics of Confusing Supervised Learning==<br />
<br />
There are two measures of accuracy used to evaluate and compare CSL to other methods, corresponding respectively to the accuracy of the task labelling and the accuracy of the learned mapping function. <br />
<br />
'''Label Assignment Accuracy''': <math>\alpha_T(j)</math> is the average number of times the learned deconfusing function <math>h</math> agrees with the task-assignment ability of humans <math>\tilde h</math> on whether each observation in the data "is" or "is not" in task <math>j</math>.<br />
<br />
$$ \alpha_T(j) = \operatorname{max}_k\frac{1}{m}\sum_{i=1}^m I[h(x_i,y_i;f_k),\tilde h(x_i,y_i;f_j)]$$<br />
<br />
The max over <math>k</math> is taken because we need to determine which learned task corresponds to which ground-truth task.<br />
<br />
'''Mapping Function Accuracy''': <math>\alpha_T(j)</math> again chooses <math>f_k</math>, the learned mapping function that is closest to the ground-truth of task <math>j</math>, and measures its average absolute accuracy compared to the ground-truth of task <math>j</math>, <math>f_j</math>, across all <math>m</math> observations.<br />
<br />
$$ \alpha_L(j) = \operatorname{max}_k\frac{1}{m}\sum_{i=1}^m 1-\dfrac{|g_k(x_i)-f_j(x_i)|}{|f_j(x_i)|}$$<br />
<br />
==Results==<br />
<br />
Given confusing data, CSL performs better than traditional supervised learning methods, Pseudo-Label(Lee, 2013), and SMiLE(Tan et al., 2017). This is demonstrated by CSL's <math>\alpha_L</math> scores of around 95%, compared to <math>\alpha_L</math> scores of under 50% for the other methods. This supports the assertion that traditional methods only learn the means of all the ground-truth mapping functions when presented with confusing data.<br />
<br />
'''Function Regression''': In order to "correctly" partition the observations into the correct tasks, a 5-shot warm-up was used. <br />
<br />
'''Image Classification''': Visualizations created through Spectral embedding confirm the task labelling proficiency of the deconfusing neural network <math>h</math>.<br />
<br />
The classification and function prediction accuracy of CSL are comparable to supervised learning programs that have been given access to the ground-truth labels.<br />
<br />
==Application of Multi-label Learning==<br />
<br />
CSL also had better accuracy than traditional supervised learning methods, Pseudo-Label(Lee, 2013), and SMiLE(Tan et al., 2017) when presented with multi-labelled data <math>(x_i,y_i)</math>, where <math>y_i</math> is a <math>n</math>-long vector containing the correct output for each task.<br />
<br />
= Conclusion =<br />
<br />
This paper proposes the CSL method for tackling the multi-task learning problem with manual task annotations in the input data. The model obtains a basic task concept by differentiating multiple mappings. The paper also demonstrates that the CSL method is an important step to moving from Narrow AI towards General AI for multi-task learning.<br />
<br />
= Critique =<br />
<br />
The classification accuracy of CSL was made with algorithms not designed to deal with confusing data and which do not first classify the task of each observation.<br />
<br />
Human task annotation is also imperfect, so one additional application of CSL may be to attempt to flag task annotation errors made by humans, such as in sorting comments for items sold by online retailers; concerned customers in particular may not correctly label their comments as "refund", "order didn't arrive", "order damaged", "how good the item is" etc.<br />
<br />
= References =<br />
<br />
Su, Xin, et al. "Task Understanding from Confusing Multi-task Data."<br />
<br />
Caruana, R. (1997) "Multi-task learning"<br />
<br />
Lee, D.-H. Pseudo-label: The simple and efficient semi-supervised learning method for deep neural networks. Workshop on challenges in representation learning, ICML, vol. 3, 2013, pp. 2–8. <br />
<br />
Tan, Q., Yu, Y., Yu, G., and Wang, J. Semi-supervised multi-label classification using incomplete label information. Neurocomputing, vol. 260, 2017, pp. 192–202.</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=Graph_Structure_of_Neural_Networks&diff=44805Graph Structure of Neural Networks2020-11-16T02:29:25Z<p>B22chang: /* Critique */</p>
<hr />
<div>= Presented By =<br />
<br />
Xiaolan Xu, Robin Wen, Yue Weng, Beizhen Chang<br />
<br />
= Introduction =<br />
<br />
We develop a new way of representing a neural network as a graph, which we call relational graph. Our<br />
key insight is to focus on message exchange, rather than<br />
just on directed data flow. As a simple example, for a fixedwidth fully-connected layer, we can represent one input<br />
channel and one output channel together as a single node,<br />
and an edge in the relational graph represents the message<br />
exchange between the two nodes (Figure 1(a)).<br />
<br />
= Relational Graph =<br />
<br />
= Parameter Definition =<br />
<br />
(1) Clustering Coefficient<br />
<br />
(2) Average Path Length<br />
<br />
= Experimental Setup (Section 4 in the paper) =<br />
<br />
= Discussions and Conclusions =<br />
<br />
Section 5 of the paper summarize the result of experiment among multiple different relational graphs through sampling and analyzing.<br />
<br />
[[File:Result2_441_2020Group16.png]]<br />
<br />
== 1. Neural networks performance depends on its structure ==<br />
In the experiment, top-1 errors are going to be used to measure the performance of the model. The parameters of the models are average path length and clustering coefficient. Heat maps was created to illustrate the difference of predictive performance among possible average path length and clustering coefficient. In Figure ???, The darker area represents a smaller top-1 error which indicate the model perform better than other area.<br />
Compare with the complete graph which has A = 1 and C = 1, The best performing relational graph can outperform the complete graph baseline by 1.4% top-1 error for MLP on CIFAR-10, and 0.5% to 1.2% for models on ImageNet. Hence it is an indicator that the predictive performance of neural network highly depends on the graph structure, or equivalently that completed graph does not always preform the best. <br />
<br />
<br />
== 2. Sweet spot where performance is significantly improved ==<br />
To reduce the training noise, the 3942 graphs that in the sample had been grouped into 52 bin, each bin had been colored based on the average performance of graphs that fall into the bin. Based on the heat map, the well-performing graphs tend to cluster into a special spot that the paper called “sweet spot” shown in the red rectangle. <br />
<br />
== 3. Relationship between neural network’s performance and parameters == <br />
When we visualize the heat map, we can see that there are no significant jump of performance that occurred as small change of clustering coefficient and average path length. If one of the variable is fixed in a small range, it is observed that a second degree polynomial is a good visualization tools for the overall trend. Therefore, both clustering coefficient and average path length are highly related with neural network performance by a U-shape. <br />
<br />
== 4. Consistency among many different tasks and datasets ==<br />
It is observed that the results are consistent through different point of view. Among multiple architecture dataset, it is observed that the clustering coefficient within [0.1,0.7] and average path length with in [1.5,3] consistently outperform the baseline complete graph. <br />
<br />
Among different dataset with network that has similar clustering coefficient and average path length, the results are correlated, The paper mentioned that ResNet-34 is much more complex than 5-layer MLP but a fixed set relational graphs would perform similarly in both setting, with Pearson correlation of 0.658, the p-value for the Null hypothesis is less than 10^-8. <br />
<br />
== 5. top architectures can be identified efficiently ==<br />
According to the graphs we have in the Key Results. We can see that there is a "sweet spot" and therefore, we do not have to train the entire data set for a large value of epoch. We can take a sample of the data and just focusing on the "sweet spot" would save a lot of time. Within 3 epochs, the correlation between the variables are already high enough for the future computation.<br />
<br />
== 6. well-performing neural networks have graph structure surprisingly similar to those of real biological neural networks==<br />
The way we define relational graphs and average length in the graph is similar to the way information is exchanged in network science. The biological neural network also has a similar relational graph representation and graph measure with the best-performing relational graph.<br />
<br />
= Critique =<br />
1. The experiment is only measuring on a single data set which might impact the conclusion since this is not representative enough.<br />
2. When we are fitting the model, training data should be randomized in each epoch to reduce the noise.</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=Graph_Structure_of_Neural_Networks&diff=44802Graph Structure of Neural Networks2020-11-16T02:14:01Z<p>B22chang: /* Critique */</p>
<hr />
<div>= Presented By =<br />
<br />
Xiaolan Xu, Robin Wen, Yue Weng, Beizhen Chang<br />
<br />
= Introduction =<br />
<br />
We develop a new way of representing a neural network as a graph, which we call relational graph. Our<br />
key insight is to focus on message exchange, rather than<br />
just on directed data flow. As a simple example, for a fixedwidth fully-connected layer, we can represent one input<br />
channel and one output channel together as a single node,<br />
and an edge in the relational graph represents the message<br />
exchange between the two nodes (Figure 1(a)).<br />
<br />
= Relational Graph =<br />
<br />
= Parameter Definition =<br />
<br />
(1) Clustering Coefficient<br />
<br />
(2) Average Path Length<br />
<br />
= Experimental Setup (Section 4 in the paper) =<br />
<br />
= Discussions and Conclusions =<br />
<br />
Section 5 of the paper summarize the result of experiment among multiple different relational graphs through sampling and analyzing.<br />
<br />
[[File:Result2_441_2020Group16.png]]<br />
<br />
== 1. Neural networks performance depends on its structure ==<br />
In the experiment, top-1 errors are going to be used to measure the performance of the model. The parameters of the models are average path length and clustering coefficient. Heat maps was created to illustrate the difference of predictive performance among possible average path length and clustering coefficient. In Figure ???, The darker area represents a smaller top-1 error which indicate the model perform better than other area.<br />
Compare with the complete graph which has A = 1 and C = 1, The best performing relational graph can outperform the complete graph baseline by 1.4% top-1 error for MLP on CIFAR-10, and 0.5% to 1.2% for models on ImageNet. Hence it is an indicator that the predictive performance of neural network highly depends on the graph structure, or equivalently that completed graph does not always preform the best. <br />
<br />
<br />
== 2. Sweet spot where performance is significantly improved ==<br />
To reduce the training noise, the 3942 graphs that in the sample had been grouped into 52 bin, each bin had been colored based on the average performance of graphs that fall into the bin. Based on the heat map, the well-performing graphs tend to cluster into a special spot that the paper called “sweet spot” shown in the red rectangle. <br />
<br />
== 3. Relationship between neural network’s performance and parameters == <br />
When we visualize the heat map, we can see that there are no significant jump of performance that occurred as small change of clustering coefficient and average path length. If one of the variable is fixed in a small range, it is observed that a second degree polynomial is a good visualization tools for the overall trend. Therefore, both clustering coefficient and average path length are highly related with neural network performance by a U-shape. <br />
<br />
== 4. Consistency among many different tasks and datasets ==<br />
It is observed that the results are consistent through different point of view. Among multiple architecture dataset, it is observed that the clustering coefficient within [0.1,0.7] and average path length with in [1.5,3] consistently outperform the baseline complete graph. <br />
<br />
Among different dataset with network that has similar clustering coefficient and average path length, the results are correlated, The paper mentioned that ResNet-34 is much more complex than 5-layer MLP but a fixed set relational graphs would perform similarly in both setting, with Pearson correlation of 0.658, the p-value for the Null hypothesis is less than 10^-8. <br />
<br />
== 5. top architectures can be identified efficiently ==<br />
According to the graphs we have in the Key Results. We can see that there is a "sweet spot" and therefore, we do not have to train the entire data set for a large value of epoch. We can take a sample of the data and just focusing on the "sweet spot" would save a lot of time. Within 3 epochs, the correlation between the variables are already high enough for the future computation.<br />
<br />
== 6. well-performing neural networks have graph structure surprisingly similar to those of real biological neural networks==<br />
The way we define relational graphs and average length in the graph is similar to the way information is exchanged in network science. The biological neural network also has a similar relational graph representation and graph measure with the best-performing relational graph.<br />
<br />
= Critique =<br />
1. The experiment is only measuring on a single data set which might impact the conclusion since this is not representative enough.</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=Graph_Structure_of_Neural_Networks&diff=44797Graph Structure of Neural Networks2020-11-16T01:55:40Z<p>B22chang: /* 6. well-performing neural networks have graph structure surprisingly similar to those of real biological neural networks */</p>
<hr />
<div>= Presented By =<br />
<br />
Xiaolan Xu, Robin Wen, Yue Weng, Beizhen Chang<br />
<br />
= Introduction =<br />
<br />
We develop a new way of representing a neural network as a graph, which we call relational graph. Our<br />
key insight is to focus on message exchange, rather than<br />
just on directed data flow. As a simple example, for a fixedwidth fully-connected layer, we can represent one input<br />
channel and one output channel together as a single node,<br />
and an edge in the relational graph represents the message<br />
exchange between the two nodes (Figure 1(a)).<br />
<br />
= Relational Graph =<br />
<br />
= Parameter Definition =<br />
<br />
(1) Clustering Coefficient<br />
<br />
(2) Average Path Length<br />
<br />
= Experimental Setup (Section 4 in the paper) =<br />
<br />
= Discussions and Conclusions =<br />
<br />
Section 5 of the paper summarize the result of experiment among multiple different relational graphs through sampling and analyzing.<br />
<br />
[[File:Result2_441_2020Group16.png]]<br />
<br />
== 1. Neural networks performance depends on its structure ==<br />
In the experiment, top-1 errors are going to be used to measure the performance of the model. The parameters of the models are average path length and clustering coefficient. Heat maps was created to illustrate the difference of predictive performance among possible average path length and clustering coefficient. In Figure ???, The darker area represents a smaller top-1 error which indicate the model perform better than other area.<br />
Compare with the complete graph which has A = 1 and C = 1, The best performing relational graph can outperform the complete graph baseline by 1.4% top-1 error for MLP on CIFAR-10, and 0.5% to 1.2% for models on ImageNet. Hence it is an indicator that the predictive performance of neural network highly depends on the graph structure, or equivalently that completed graph does not always preform the best. <br />
<br />
<br />
== 2. Sweet spot where performance is significantly improved ==<br />
To reduce the training noise, the 3942 graphs that in the sample had been grouped into 52 bin, each bin had been colored based on the average performance of graphs that fall into the bin. Based on the heat map, the well-performing graphs tend to cluster into a special spot that the paper called “sweet spot” shown in the red rectangle. <br />
<br />
== 3. Relationship between neural network’s performance and parameters == <br />
When we visualize the heat map, we can see that there are no significant jump of performance that occurred as small change of clustering coefficient and average path length. If one of the variable is fixed in a small range, it is observed that a second degree polynomial is a good visualization tools for the overall trend. Therefore, both clustering coefficient and average path length are highly related with neural network performance by a U-shape. <br />
<br />
== 4. Consistency among many different tasks and datasets ==<br />
It is observed that the results are consistent through different point of view. Among multiple architecture dataset, it is observed that the clustering coefficient within [0.1,0.7] and average path length with in [1.5,3] consistently outperform the baseline complete graph. <br />
<br />
Among different dataset with network that has similar clustering coefficient and average path length, the results are correlated, The paper mentioned that ResNet-34 is much more complex than 5-layer MLP but a fixed set relational graphs would perform similarly in both setting, with Pearson correlation of 0.658, the p-value for the Null hypothesis is less than 10^-8. <br />
<br />
== 5. top architectures can be identified efficiently ==<br />
According to the graphs we have in the Key Results. We can see that there is a "sweet spot" and therefore, we do not have to train the entire data set for a large value of epoch. We can take a sample of the data and just focusing on the "sweet spot" would save a lot of time. Within 3 epochs, the correlation between the variables are already high enough for the future computation.<br />
<br />
== 6. well-performing neural networks have graph structure surprisingly similar to those of real biological neural networks==<br />
The way we define relational graphs and average length in the graph is similar to the way information is exchanged in network science. The biological neural network also has a similar relational graph representation and graph measure with the best-performing relational graph.<br />
<br />
= Critique =</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=Graph_Structure_of_Neural_Networks&diff=44790Graph Structure of Neural Networks2020-11-16T01:38:50Z<p>B22chang: /* 5. top architectures can be identified efficiently */</p>
<hr />
<div>= Presented By =<br />
<br />
Xiaolan Xu, Robin Wen, Yue Weng, Beizhen Chang<br />
<br />
= Introduction =<br />
<br />
We develop a new way of representing a neural network as a graph, which we call relational graph. Our<br />
key insight is to focus on message exchange, rather than<br />
just on directed data flow. As a simple example, for a fixedwidth fully-connected layer, we can represent one input<br />
channel and one output channel together as a single node,<br />
and an edge in the relational graph represents the message<br />
exchange between the two nodes (Figure 1(a)).<br />
<br />
= Relational Graph =<br />
<br />
= Parameter Definition =<br />
<br />
(1) Clustering Coefficient<br />
<br />
(2) Average Path Length<br />
<br />
= Experimental Setup (Section 4 in the paper) =<br />
<br />
= Discussions and Conclusions =<br />
<br />
Section 5 of the paper summarize the result of experiment among multiple different relational graphs through sampling and analyzing.<br />
<br />
[[File:Result2_441_2020Group16.png]]<br />
<br />
== 1. Neural networks performance depends on its structure ==<br />
In the experiment, top-1 errors are going to be used to measure the performance of the model. The parameters of the models are average path length and clustering coefficient. Heat maps was created to illustrate the difference of predictive performance among possible average path length and clustering coefficient. In Figure ???, The darker area represents a smaller top-1 error which indicate the model perform better than other area.<br />
Compare with the complete graph which has A = 1 and C = 1, The best performing relational graph can outperform the complete graph baseline by 1.4% top-1 error for MLP on CIFAR-10, and 0.5% to 1.2% for models on ImageNet. Hence it is an indicator that the predictive performance of neural network highly depends on the graph structure, or equivalently that completed graph does not always preform the best. <br />
<br />
<br />
== 2. Sweet spot where performance is significantly improved ==<br />
To reduce the training noise, the 3942 graphs that in the sample had been grouped into 52 bin, each bin had been colored based on the average performance of graphs that fall into the bin. Based on the heat map, the well-performing graphs tend to cluster into a special spot that the paper called “sweet spot” shown in the red rectangle. <br />
<br />
== 3. Relationship between neural network’s performance and parameters == <br />
When we visualize the heat map, we can see that there are no significant jump of performance that occurred as small change of clustering coefficient and average path length. If one of the variable is fixed in a small range, it is observed that a second degree polynomial is a good visualization tools for the overall trend. Therefore, both clustering coefficient and average path length are highly related with neural network performance by a U-shape. <br />
<br />
== 4. Consistency among many different tasks and datasets ==<br />
It is observed that the results are consistent through different point of view. Among multiple architecture dataset, it is observed that the clustering coefficient within [0.1,0.7] and average path length with in [1.5,3] consistently outperform the baseline complete graph. <br />
<br />
Among different dataset with network that has similar clustering coefficient and average path length, the results are correlated, The paper mentioned that ResNet-34 is much more complex than 5-layer MLP but a fixed set relational graphs would perform similarly in both setting, with Pearson correlation of 0.658, the p-value for the Null hypothesis is less than 10^-8. <br />
<br />
== 5. top architectures can be identified efficiently ==<br />
According to the graphs we have in the Key Results. We can see that there is a "sweet spot" and therefore, we do not have to train the entire data set for a large value of epoch. We can take a sample of the data and just focusing on the "sweet spot" would save a lot of time. Within 3 epochs, the correlation between the variables are already high enough for the future computation.<br />
<br />
== 6. well-performing neural networks have graph structure surprisingly similar to those of real biological neural networks==<br />
<br />
= Critique =</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=Deep_Learning_for_Cardiologist-level_Myocardial_Infarction_Detection_in_Electrocardiograms&diff=43765Deep Learning for Cardiologist-level Myocardial Infarction Detection in Electrocardiograms2020-11-11T02:57:16Z<p>B22chang: /* Introduction */</p>
<hr />
<div><br />
== Presented by ==<br />
<br />
Zihui (Betty) Qin, Wenqi (Maggie) Zhao, Muyuan Yang, Amartya (Marty) Mukherjee<br />
<br />
== Introduction ==<br />
<br />
This paper presents an approach to the detection of heart disease, which is the leading cause of death worldwide, from ECG signals by fine-tuning the deep learning neural network, ConvNetQuake, in the area of scientific machine learning. By combining data fusion and machine learning exhibit great promise to ensure the innovation of healthcare. A deep learning approach was used due to the model’s ability to be trained using multiple GPUs and terabyte-sized datasets. This, in turn, creates a model that is robust against noise. The purpose of this paper is to provide detailed analyses of the contributions of the ECG leads on identifying heart disease, to show the use of multiple channels in ConvNetQuake enhances prediction accuracy, and to show that feature engineering is not necessary for any of the training, validation, or testing processes. The benefits of translating knowledge between deep learning and it's real-world applications in health are also illustrated.<br />
<br />
== Previous Work and Motivation ==<br />
<br />
The database used in previous works is the Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB) database, which consists of ECG records. Previous papers used techniques, such as CNN, SVM, K-nearest neighbours, naïve Bayes classification, and ANN. From these instances, the paper observes several faults in the previous papers. The first being the issue that most papers use feature selection on the raw ECG data before training the model. Dabanloo, and Attarodi [30] used various techniques such as ANN, K-nearest neighbours, and Naïve Bayes. However, they extracted two features, the T-wave integral and the total integral, to aid in localizing and detecting heart disease. Sharma and Sunkaria [32] used SVM and K-nearest neighbours as their classifier, but extracted various features using stationary wavelet transforms to decompose the ECG signal into sub-bands. The second issue is that papers that do not use feature selection would arbitrarily pick ECG leads for classification without rationale. For example, Liu et al. [23] used a deep CNN that uses 3 seconds of ECG signal from lead II at a time as input. The decision for using lead II compared to the other leads was not explained. <br />
<br />
The issue with feature selection is that it can be time-consuming and impractical with large volumes of data. The second issue with the arbitrary selection of leads is that it does not offer insight into why the lead was chosen and the contributions of each lead in the identification of heart disease. Thus, this paper addresses these two issues through implementing a deep learning model that does not rely on feature selection of ECG data and to quantify the contributions of each ECG and Frank lead in identifying heart disease.<br />
<br />
== Model Architecture ==<br />
<br />
The dataset, which was used to train, validate and test the neural network models, consists of 549 ECG records taken from 290 unique patients. Each ECG record has a mean length of over 100 seconds.<br />
<br />
This Deep Neural Network model was created by modifying the ConvNetQuake model by adding 1D batch normalization layers.<br />
<br />
The input layer is a 10-second long ECG signal. There are 8 hidden layers in this model, each of which consists of a 1D convolution layer with the ReLu activation function followed by a batch normalization layer. The output layer is a one-dimensional layer that uses the Sigmoid activation function.<br />
<br />
This model is trained by using batches of size 10. The learning rate is 10^-4. The ADAM optimizer is used. In training the model, the dataset is split into a train set, validation set and test set with ratios 80-10-10.<br />
<br />
During the training process, the model was trained from scratch numerous times to avoid inserting unintended variation into the model by randomly initializing weights.<br />
<br />
==Result== <br />
<br />
The paper first uses quantification of accuracies for single channels with 20-fold cross-validation, resulting highest individual accuracies: v5, v6, vx, vz, and ii. The researcher further investigated the accuracies for pairs of top 5 highest individual channels using 20-fold cross-validation. The arrived at the conclusion of highest pairs accuracies to fed into a the neural network is lead v6 and lead vz. They then use 100-fold cross validation on v6 and vz pair of channels, then compare outliers based on top 20, top 50 and total 100 performing models, finding that standard deviation is non-trivial and there are few models performed very poorly. <br />
<br />
Next, they discussed 2 factors effecting model performance evaluation: 1） Random train-val-test split might have effects of the performance of the model, but it can be improved by access with a larger data set and further discussion; and 2） random initialization of the weights of neural network shows little effects on the performance of the model performance evaluation, because of showing a high average results with a fixed train-val-test split. <br />
<br />
Comparing with other models in other 12 papers, the model in this article has the highest accuracy, specificity, and precision. With concerns of patients' records effecting the training accuracy, they used 290 fold patient-wise split, resulting the same highest accuracy of the pair v6 and vz same as record-wise split. Even though the patient-wise split might result lower accuracy evaluation, however, it still maintain an high average of 97.83%. <br />
<br />
==Discussion & Conclusion== <br />
<br />
The paper introduced a new architecture for heart condition classification based on raw ECG signals using multiple leads. It outperformed the state-of-art model by a large margin of 1 percent. This study finds that out of the 15 ECG channels(12 conventional ECG leads and 3 Frank Leads), channel v6, vz and ii contain the most meaningful information for detecting myocardial infraction. Also, recent advances in machine learning can be leveraged to produce a model capable of classifying myocardial infraction with a cardiologist-level success rate. To further improve the performance of the models, access to larger labelled data set is needed. The PTB database is small so it is difficult to test the true robustness of the model with a relatively small test set. If a larger data set can be found to help correctly identify other heart conditions beyond myocardial infraction, the research group plans to share the deep learning models and develop an open source, computationally efficient app that can be readily used by cardiologists.<br />
<br />
A detailed analysis of the relative importance of each of the standard 15 ECG channels indicates that deep learning can identify myocardial infraction by processing only ten seconds of raw ECG data from the v6, vz and ii leads and reaches cardiologist-level success rate. Deep learning algorithms may be readily used as commodity software. Neural network model that was originally designed to identify earthquakes may be re-designed and tuned to identify myocardial infraction. Feature engineering of ECG data is not required to identify myocardial infraction in the PTB database. This model only required ten seconds of raw ECG data to identify this heart condition with cardiologist-level performance. Access to larger database should be provided to deep learning researchers so they can work on detecting different types of heart conditions. Deep learning researchers and cardiology community can work together to develop deep learning algorithms that provides trustworthy, real-time information regarding heart conditions with minimal computational resources.</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=User:J46hou&diff=43764User:J46hou2020-11-11T02:48:12Z<p>B22chang: /* Introduction */</p>
<hr />
<div>DROCC: Deep Robust One-Class Classification<br />
== Presented by == <br />
Jinjiang Lian, Yisheng Zhu, Jiawen Hou, Mingzhe Huang<br />
== Introduction ==<br />
In this work, we study “one-class” classification where the goal is to obtain accurate discriminators for a special class. Popular use cases would be anomaly detection where we are interested in detecting outliers. Another use case would be in recognizing “wake-word” in waking up AI systems such as Alexa. In this work, we are presenting a new approach called Deep Robust One Class Classification (DROCC). DROCC is based on the assumption that the points from the class of interest lie on a well-sampled, locally linear low dimensional manifold. More specifically, we are presenting DROCC-LF which is an outlier-exposure style extension of DROCC. This extension combines the DROCC's anomaly detection loss with standard classification loss over the negative data.<br />
<br />
== Previous Work ==<br />
The current state of art methodology to tackle this kind of problems are: <br />
1. Approach based on prediction transformations (Golan & El-Yaniv, 2018; Hendrycks et al.,2019a) [1] This approach has some short coming in terms of it heavily depends on an appropriate domain-specific set of transformations that are hard to obtain in general. <br />
2. Approach of minimizing a classical one-class loss on the learned final layer representations such as DeepSVDD. (Ruff et al.,2018)[2] This method suffers from the fundamental drawback of representation collapse where the model is no longer being able to accurately recognize the feature representations. <br />
== Motivation ==<br />
Anomaly detection is a well-studied problem with a large body of research (Aggarwal, 2016; Chandola et al., 2009) [3]. Classical approaches for anomaly detection are based on modeling the typical data using simple functions over the inputs (Sch¨olkopf et al., 1999; Liu et al., 2008; Lakhina et al., 2004) [4], such as constructing a minimum-enclosing ball around the typical data points (Tax & Duin, 2004) [5]. While these techniques are well-suited when the input is featurized appropriately, they struggle on complex domains like vision and speech, where hand-designing features is difficult.<br />
DROCC is robust to representation collapse by involving a discriminative component that is general and is empirically accurate on most standard domains like tabular, time-series and vision without requiring any additional side information. DROCC is motivated by the key observation that generally, the typical data lies on a low-dimensional manifold, which is well-sampled in the training data. This is believed to be true even in complex domains such as vision, speech, and natural language (Pless & Souvenir, 2009). [6]<br />
== Model Explanation ==<br />
[[File:drocc_f1.jpg | center]]<br />
<div align="center">Figure 1</div><br />
(a) A normal data manifold with red dots representing generated anomalous points in Ni(r). <br />
<br />
(b) Decision boundary learned by DROCC when applied to the data from (a). Blue represents points classified as normal and red points are classified as abnormal. <br />
<br />
(c), (d): first two dimensions of the decision boundary of DROCC and DROCC–LF, when applied to noisy data (Section 5.2). DROCC–LF is nearly optimal while DROCC’s decision boundary is inaccurate. Yellow color sine wave depicts the train data.<br />
<br />
== DROCC ==<br />
The model is based on the assumption that the true data lines on a manifold. As manifolds resemble Euclidean space locally, our discriminative component is based on classifying a point as anomalous if it is outside the union of small L2 norm balls around the training typical points (See Figure 1a, 1b for an illustration). Importantly, the above definition allows us to synthetically generate anomalous points, and we adaptively generate the most effective anomalous points while training via a gradient ascent phase reminiscent of adversarial training. In other words, DROCC has a gradient ascent phase to adaptively add anomalous points to our training set and a gradient descent phase to minimize the classification loss by learning a representation and a classifier on top of the representations to separate typical points from the generated anomalous points. In this way, DROCC automatically learns an appropriate representation (like DeepSVDD) but is robust to a representation collapse as mapping all points to the same value would lead to poor discrimination between normal points and the generated anomalous points.<br />
== DROCC-LF ==<br />
To especially tackle problems such as anomaly detection and outlier exposure (Hendrycks et al., 2019a) [7] We propose DROCC–LF, an outlier-exposure style extension of DROCC. Intuitively, DROCC–LF combines DROCC’s anomaly detection loss (that is over only the positive data points) with standard classification loss over the negative data. But, in addition, DROCC–LF exploits the negative examples to learn a Mahalanobis distance to compare points over the manifold instead of using the standard Euclidean distance, which can be inaccurate for high-dimensional data with relatively fewer samples. (See Figure 1c, 1d for illustration)<br />
<br />
== Popular Dataset Benchmark Result ==<br />
<br />
[[File:drocc_auc.jpg | center]]<br />
<div align="center">Figure 2: AUC result</div><br />
<br />
The CIFAR-10 dataset consists of 60000 32x32 color images in 10 classes, with 6000 images per class. There are 50000 training images and 10000 test images. The dataset is divided into five training batches and one test batch, each with 10000 images. The test batch contains exactly 1000 randomly selected images from each class. The training batches contain the remaining images in random order, but some training batches may contain more images from one class than another. Between them, the training batches contain exactly 5000 images from each class. The average AUC (with standard deviation) for one-vs-all anomaly detection on CIFAR-10 is shown in table 1. DROCC outperforms baselines on most classes, with gains as high at 20%, and notably, nearest neighbors (NN) beats all the baselines on 2 classes.<br />
<br />
[[File:drocc_f1score.jpg | center]]<br />
<div align="center">Figure 3: F1-Score</div><br />
<br />
Table 2 shows F1-Score (with standard deviation) for one-vs-all anomaly detection on Thyroid, Arrhythmia, and Abalone datasets from UCI Machine Learning Repository. DROCC outperforms the baselines on all the three datasets by a minimum of 0.07 which is about 11.5% performance increase.<br />
Results on One-class Classification with Limited Negatives (OCLN): <br />
[[File:ocln.jpg | center]]<br />
<div align="center">Figure 4: Sample postives, negatives and close negatives for MNIST digit 0 vs 1 experiment (OCLN).</div><br />
MNIST 0 vs. 1 Classification: <br />
We consider an experimental setup on MNIST dataset, where the training data consists of Digit 0, the normal class, and the Digit 1 as the anomaly. During evaluation, in addition to samples from training distribution, we also have half zeros, which act as challenging OOD points (close negatives). These half zeros are generated by randomly masking 50% of the pixels (Figure 2). BCE performs poorly, with a recall of 54% only at a fixed FPR of 3%. DROCC–OE gives a recall value of 98:16% outperforming DeepSAD by a margin of 7%, which gives a recall value of 90:91%. DROCC–LF provides further improvement with a recall of 99:4% at 3% FPR. <br />
<br />
[[File:ocln_2.jpg | center]]<br />
<div align="center">Figure 5: OCLN on Audio Commands.</div><br />
Wake word Detection: <br />
Finally, we evaluate DROCC–LF on the practical problem of wake word detection with low FPR against arbitrary OOD negatives. To this end, we identify a keyword, say “Marvin” from the audio commands dataset (Warden, 2018) [8] as the positive class, and the remaining 34 keywords are labeled as the negative class. For training, we sample points uniformly at random from the above-mentioned dataset. However, for evaluation, we sample positives from the train distribution, but negatives contain a few challenging OOD points as well. Sampling challenging negatives itself is a hard task and is the key motivating reason for studying the problem. So, we manually list close-by keywords to Marvin such as: Mar, Vin, Marvelous etc. We then generate audio snippets for these keywords via a speech synthesis tool 2 with a variety of accents.<br />
Figure 3 shows that for 3% and 5% FPR settings, DROCC–LF is significantly more accurate than the baselines. For example, with FPR=3%, DROCC–LF is 10% more accurate than the baselines. We repeated the same experiment with the keyword: Seven, and observed a similar trend. In summary, DROCC–LF is able to generalize well against negatives that are “close” to the true positives even when such negatives were not supplied with the training data.<br />
<br />
== Conclusion and Future Work ==<br />
We introduced DROCC method for deep anomaly detection. It models normal data points using a low-dimensional manifold, and hence can compare close point via Euclidean distance. Based on this intuition, DROCC’s optimization is formulated as a saddle point problem which is solved via standard gradient descent-ascent algorithm. We then extended DROCC to OCLN problem where the goal is to generalize well against arbitrary negatives, assuming positive class is well sampled and a small number of negative points are also available. Both the methods perform significantly better than strong baselines, in their respective problem settings. <br />
<br />
For computational efficiency, we simplified the projection set for both the methods which can perhaps slow down the convergence of the two methods. Designing optimization algorithms that can work with the stricter set is an exciting research direction. Further, we would also like to rigorously analyze DROCC, assuming enough samples from a low-curvature manifold. Finally, as OCLN is an exciting problem that routinely comes up in a variety of real-world applications, we would like to apply DROCC–LF to a few high impact scenarios.<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
[1]: Golan, I. and El-Yaniv, R. Deep anomaly detection using geometric transformations. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS), 2018.<br />
<br />
[2]: Ruff, L., Vandermeulen, R., Goernitz, N., Deecke, L., Siddiqui, S. A., Binder, A., M¨uller, E., and Kloft, M. Deep one-class classification. In International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2018.<br />
<br />
[3]: Aggarwal, C. C. Outlier Analysis. Springer Publishing Company, Incorporated, 2nd edition, 2016. ISBN 3319475770.<br />
<br />
[4]: Sch¨olkopf, B., Williamson, R., Smola, A., Shawe-Taylor, J., and Platt, J. Support vector method for novelty detection. In Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems, 1999.<br />
<br />
[5]: Tax, D. M. and Duin, R. P. Support vector data description. Machine Learning, 54(1), 2004.<br />
<br />
[6]: Pless, R. and Souvenir, R. A survey of manifold learning for images. IPSJ Transactions on Computer Vision and Applications, 1, 2009.<br />
<br />
[7]: Hendrycks, D., Mazeika, M., and Dietterich, T. Deep anomaly detection with outlier exposure. In International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR), 2019a.<br />
<br />
[8]: Warden, P. Speech commands: A dataset for limited vocabulary speech recognition, 2018. URL https: //arxiv.org/abs/1804.03209.</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=User:J46hou&diff=43763User:J46hou2020-11-11T02:46:09Z<p>B22chang: /* Introduction */</p>
<hr />
<div>DROCC: Deep Robust One-Class Classification<br />
== Presented by == <br />
Jinjiang Lian, Yisheng Zhu, Jiawen Hou, Mingzhe Huang<br />
== Introduction ==<br />
In this work, we study “one-class” classification where the goal is to obtain accurate discriminators for a special class. Popular use cases would be anomaly detection where we are interested in detecting outliers. Another use case would be in recognizing “wake-word” in waking up AI systems such as Alexa. In this work, we are presenting a new approach called Deep Robust One Class Classification (DROCC). DROCC is based on the assumption that the points from the class of interest lie on a well-sampled, locally linear low dimensional manifold. More specifically, we are presenting DROCC-LF which is an outlier-exposure style extension of DROCC.<br />
<br />
== Previous Work ==<br />
The current state of art methodology to tackle this kind of problems are: <br />
1. Approach based on prediction transformations (Golan & El-Yaniv, 2018; Hendrycks et al.,2019a) [1] This approach has some short coming in terms of it heavily depends on an appropriate domain-specific set of transformations that are hard to obtain in general. <br />
2. Approach of minimizing a classical one-class loss on the learned final layer representations such as DeepSVDD. (Ruff et al.,2018)[2] This method suffers from the fundamental drawback of representation collapse where the model is no longer being able to accurately recognize the feature representations. <br />
== Motivation ==<br />
Anomaly detection is a well-studied problem with a large body of research (Aggarwal, 2016; Chandola et al., 2009) [3]. Classical approaches for anomaly detection are based on modeling the typical data using simple functions over the inputs (Sch¨olkopf et al., 1999; Liu et al., 2008; Lakhina et al., 2004) [4], such as constructing a minimum-enclosing ball around the typical data points (Tax & Duin, 2004) [5]. While these techniques are well-suited when the input is featurized appropriately, they struggle on complex domains like vision and speech, where hand-designing features is difficult.<br />
DROCC is robust to representation collapse by involving a discriminative component that is general and is empirically accurate on most standard domains like tabular, time-series and vision without requiring any additional side information. DROCC is motivated by the key observation that generally, the typical data lies on a low-dimensional manifold, which is well-sampled in the training data. This is believed to be true even in complex domains such as vision, speech, and natural language (Pless & Souvenir, 2009). [6]<br />
== Model Explanation ==<br />
[[File:drocc_f1.jpg | center]]<br />
<div align="center">Figure 1</div><br />
(a) A normal data manifold with red dots representing generated anomalous points in Ni(r). <br />
<br />
(b) Decision boundary learned by DROCC when applied to the data from (a). Blue represents points classified as normal and red points are classified as abnormal. <br />
<br />
(c), (d): first two dimensions of the decision boundary of DROCC and DROCC–LF, when applied to noisy data (Section 5.2). DROCC–LF is nearly optimal while DROCC’s decision boundary is inaccurate. Yellow color sine wave depicts the train data.<br />
<br />
== DROCC ==<br />
The model is based on the assumption that the true data lines on a manifold. As manifolds resemble Euclidean space locally, our discriminative component is based on classifying a point as anomalous if it is outside the union of small L2 norm balls around the training typical points (See Figure 1a, 1b for an illustration). Importantly, the above definition allows us to synthetically generate anomalous points, and we adaptively generate the most effective anomalous points while training via a gradient ascent phase reminiscent of adversarial training. In other words, DROCC has a gradient ascent phase to adaptively add anomalous points to our training set and a gradient descent phase to minimize the classification loss by learning a representation and a classifier on top of the representations to separate typical points from the generated anomalous points. In this way, DROCC automatically learns an appropriate representation (like DeepSVDD) but is robust to a representation collapse as mapping all points to the same value would lead to poor discrimination between normal points and the generated anomalous points.<br />
== DROCC-LF ==<br />
To especially tackle problems such as anomaly detection and outlier exposure (Hendrycks et al., 2019a) [7] We propose DROCC–LF, an outlier-exposure style extension of DROCC. Intuitively, DROCC–LF combines DROCC’s anomaly detection loss (that is over only the positive data points) with standard classification loss over the negative data. But, in addition, DROCC–LF exploits the negative examples to learn a Mahalanobis distance to compare points over the manifold instead of using the standard Euclidean distance, which can be inaccurate for high-dimensional data with relatively fewer samples. (See Figure 1c, 1d for illustration)<br />
<br />
== Popular Dataset Benchmark Result ==<br />
<br />
[[File:drocc_auc.jpg | center]]<br />
<div align="center">Figure 2: AUC result</div><br />
<br />
The CIFAR-10 dataset consists of 60000 32x32 color images in 10 classes, with 6000 images per class. There are 50000 training images and 10000 test images. The dataset is divided into five training batches and one test batch, each with 10000 images. The test batch contains exactly 1000 randomly selected images from each class. The training batches contain the remaining images in random order, but some training batches may contain more images from one class than another. Between them, the training batches contain exactly 5000 images from each class. The average AUC (with standard deviation) for one-vs-all anomaly detection on CIFAR-10 is shown in table 1. DROCC outperforms baselines on most classes, with gains as high at 20%, and notably, nearest neighbors (NN) beats all the baselines on 2 classes.<br />
<br />
[[File:drocc_f1score.jpg | center]]<br />
<div align="center">Figure 3: F1-Score</div><br />
<br />
Table 2 shows F1-Score (with standard deviation) for one-vs-all anomaly detection on Thyroid, Arrhythmia, and Abalone datasets from UCI Machine Learning Repository. DROCC outperforms the baselines on all the three datasets by a minimum of 0.07 which is about 11.5% performance increase.<br />
Results on One-class Classification with Limited Negatives (OCLN): <br />
[[File:ocln.jpg | center]]<br />
<div align="center">Figure 4: Sample postives, negatives and close negatives for MNIST digit 0 vs 1 experiment (OCLN).</div><br />
MNIST 0 vs. 1 Classification: <br />
We consider an experimental setup on MNIST dataset, where the training data consists of Digit 0, the normal class, and the Digit 1 as the anomaly. During evaluation, in addition to samples from training distribution, we also have half zeros, which act as challenging OOD points (close negatives). These half zeros are generated by randomly masking 50% of the pixels (Figure 2). BCE performs poorly, with a recall of 54% only at a fixed FPR of 3%. DROCC–OE gives a recall value of 98:16% outperforming DeepSAD by a margin of 7%, which gives a recall value of 90:91%. DROCC–LF provides further improvement with a recall of 99:4% at 3% FPR. <br />
<br />
[[File:ocln_2.jpg | center]]<br />
<div align="center">Figure 5: OCLN on Audio Commands.</div><br />
Wake word Detection: <br />
Finally, we evaluate DROCC–LF on the practical problem of wake word detection with low FPR against arbitrary OOD negatives. To this end, we identify a keyword, say “Marvin” from the audio commands dataset (Warden, 2018) [8] as the positive class, and the remaining 34 keywords are labeled as the negative class. For training, we sample points uniformly at random from the above-mentioned dataset. However, for evaluation, we sample positives from the train distribution, but negatives contain a few challenging OOD points as well. Sampling challenging negatives itself is a hard task and is the key motivating reason for studying the problem. So, we manually list close-by keywords to Marvin such as: Mar, Vin, Marvelous etc. We then generate audio snippets for these keywords via a speech synthesis tool 2 with a variety of accents.<br />
Figure 3 shows that for 3% and 5% FPR settings, DROCC–LF is significantly more accurate than the baselines. For example, with FPR=3%, DROCC–LF is 10% more accurate than the baselines. We repeated the same experiment with the keyword: Seven, and observed a similar trend. In summary, DROCC–LF is able to generalize well against negatives that are “close” to the true positives even when such negatives were not supplied with the training data.<br />
<br />
== Conclusion and Future Work ==<br />
We introduced DROCC method for deep anomaly detection. It models normal data points using a low-dimensional manifold, and hence can compare close point via Euclidean distance. Based on this intuition, DROCC’s optimization is formulated as a saddle point problem which is solved via standard gradient descent-ascent algorithm. We then extended DROCC to OCLN problem where the goal is to generalize well against arbitrary negatives, assuming positive class is well sampled and a small number of negative points are also available. Both the methods perform significantly better than strong baselines, in their respective problem settings. <br />
<br />
For computational efficiency, we simplified the projection set for both the methods which can perhaps slow down the convergence of the two methods. Designing optimization algorithms that can work with the stricter set is an exciting research direction. Further, we would also like to rigorously analyze DROCC, assuming enough samples from a low-curvature manifold. Finally, as OCLN is an exciting problem that routinely comes up in a variety of real-world applications, we would like to apply DROCC–LF to a few high impact scenarios.<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
[1]: Golan, I. and El-Yaniv, R. Deep anomaly detection using geometric transformations. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS), 2018.<br />
<br />
[2]: Ruff, L., Vandermeulen, R., Goernitz, N., Deecke, L., Siddiqui, S. A., Binder, A., M¨uller, E., and Kloft, M. Deep one-class classification. In International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2018.<br />
<br />
[3]: Aggarwal, C. C. Outlier Analysis. Springer Publishing Company, Incorporated, 2nd edition, 2016. ISBN 3319475770.<br />
<br />
[4]: Sch¨olkopf, B., Williamson, R., Smola, A., Shawe-Taylor, J., and Platt, J. Support vector method for novelty detection. In Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems, 1999.<br />
<br />
[5]: Tax, D. M. and Duin, R. P. Support vector data description. Machine Learning, 54(1), 2004.<br />
<br />
[6]: Pless, R. and Souvenir, R. A survey of manifold learning for images. IPSJ Transactions on Computer Vision and Applications, 1, 2009.<br />
<br />
[7]: Hendrycks, D., Mazeika, M., and Dietterich, T. Deep anomaly detection with outlier exposure. In International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR), 2019a.<br />
<br />
[8]: Warden, P. Speech commands: A dataset for limited vocabulary speech recognition, 2018. URL https: //arxiv.org/abs/1804.03209.</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=User:Bsharman&diff=43761User:Bsharman2020-11-11T02:36:48Z<p>B22chang: </p>
<hr />
<div>'''Risk prediction in life insurance industry using supervised learning algorithms'''<br />
<br />
'''Presented By'''<br />
<br />
Bharat Sharman, Dylan Li, Leonie Lu, Mingdao Li<br />
<br />
'''Introduction'''<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
Risk assessment lies at the core of the Life Insurance Industry. It is extremely important for a Life Insurance Company to assess the risk of an application accurately in order to make sure that applications with an actual low risk are accepted and an actual high risk are rejected. Otherwise, individuals with an unacceptably high risk profile will be issued policies and when they pass away, the company will face large losses due to high insurance payouts. Such a situation is called ‘Adverse Selection’, where individuals who are most likely to suffer losses take insurance and those who are not likely to suffer losses do not and thus, the company suffers losses as a result.<br />
<br />
Traditionally, the process of Underwriting (deciding whether or not to insure the life of an individual) has been done using Actuarial calculations. Actuaries group customers according to their estimated levels of risk determined from historical data. (Cummins J, 2013) However, these conventional techniques are time consuming and it is not uncommon to take a month to issue a policy. They are expensive as a lot of manual processes need to be executed and a lot of data needs to be imported for the purpose of calculation. <br />
<br />
Predictive Analysis has emerged as a useful technique to streamline the underwriting process to reduce the time of Policy issuance and to improve the accuracy of risk prediction. In this paper, the authors use data from Prudential Life Insurance company and investigate the most appropriate data extraction method and the most appropriate algorithm to assess risk. <br />
<br />
'''Literature Review'''<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
<br />
Before a Life Insurance company issues a policy, it must execute a series of underwriting related tasks (Mishr, 2016). These tasks involve gathering extensive information about the applicant. The insurer has to analyze the employment, medical, family and insurance histories of the applicant and factor all of them into a complicated series of calculations to determine the risk rating of the applicant. On basis of this risk rating, premiums are calculated (Prince, 2016).<br />
<br />
In a competitive marketplace, customers need policies to be issued quickly and long wait times can lead to them switch to other providers (Chen 2016). In addition, the costs of doing the data gathering and analysis can be expensive. The insurance company bears the expenses of the medical examinations and if a policy lapses, then the insurer has to bear the losses of all these costs (J Carson, 2017). If the underwriting process uses Predictive Analytics, then the costs and time associated with many of these processes can be reduced via streamlining. <br />
<br />
'''Methods and Techniques'''<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
<br />
In Figure 1, the process flow of the analytics approach has been depicted. These stages will now be described in the following sections.<br />
<br />
[[File:Data_Analytics_Process_Flow.PNG]]<br />
<br />
'''Description of the Dataset'''<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
<br />
The data is obtained from the Kaggle competition hosted by the Prudential Life Insurance company. It has 59381 applications with 128 attributes. The attributes are continuous and discrete as well as categorical variables. <br />
The data attributes, their types and the description is shown in Table 1 below:<br />
<br />
[[File:Data Attributes Types and Description.png]]<br />
<br />
'''Data Pre-Processing'''<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
<br />
In the data preprocessing step, missing values in the data are either imputed or those entries are dropped and some of the attributes are either transformed in a different form to make the subsequent processing of data easier. This decision is made after determining the mechanism of missingness, that is if the data is Missing Completely at Random (MCAR), Missing at Random (MAR), or Missing Not at Random (MNAR). <br />
<br />
'''Dimensionality Reduction''' <br />
<br />
In this paper, there are two methods that have been used for dimensionality reduction – <br />
<br />
1.Correlation based Feature Selection (CFS): This is a feature selection method in which a subset of features from the original features is selected. In this method, the algorithm selects features from the dataset that are highly correlated with the output but are not correlated with each other. The user does not need to specify the number of features to be selected. The correlation values are calculated based measures such a Pearson’s coefficient, minimum description length, symmetrical uncertainty and relief. <br />
<br />
2.Principal Components Analysis (PCA): PCA is a feature extraction method that transforms existing features into new sets of features such that the correlation between them is zero and these transformed features explain the maximum variability in the data. <br />
<br />
<br />
'''Supervised Learning Algorithms'''<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
<br />
The four Algorithms that have been used in this paper are the following:<br />
<br />
1.Multiple Linear Regression: In MLR, the relationship between the dependent and the two or more independent variables is predicted by fitting a linear model. The model parameters are calculated by minimizing the sum of squares of the errors. The significance of the variables is determined by tests like the F test and the p-values. <br />
<br />
2.REPTree: REPTree stands for reduced error pruning tree. It can build both classification and regression trees, depending on the type of the response variable. In this case, it uses regression tree logic and creates many trees across several iterations. This algorithm develops these trees based on the principles of information gain and variance reduction. At the time of pruning the tree, the algorithm uses the lowest mean square error to select the best tree. <br />
<br />
3.Random Tree (Also known as the Random Forest): A random tree selects some of the attributes at each node in the decision tree and builds a tree based on random selection of data as well as attributes. Random Tree does not do pruning. Instead, it estimates class probabilities based on a hold-out set.<br />
<br />
4.Artificial Neural Network: In a neural network, the inputs are transformed into outputs via a series of layered units where each of these units transforms the input received by it via a function into an output that gets further transmitted to units down the line. The weights that are used to weigh the inputs are improved after each iteration via a method called backpropagation in which errors propagate backward in the network and are used to update the weights to make the computed output closer to the actual output.<br />
<br />
'''Experiments and Results'''<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Missing Data Mechanism'''<br />
<br />
Attributes where more than 30% of Data was missing were dropped from the analysis. The data was tested for Missing Completely at Random (MCAR), one form of the nature of missing values using the Little Test. The null Hypothesis that the missing data was completely random had a p value of 0 meaning, MCAR was rejected. Then, all the variables were plotted to check how many missing values that they had and the results are shown in the figure below:<br />
<br />
[[File:Missing Value Plot of Training Data.png]]<br />
<br />
The variables that have the most number of missing variables are plotted at the top and that have the least number of missing variables are plotted at the bottom of the y-axis in the figure above. There does not seem to a pattern to the missing variables and therefore they are assumed to be Missing at Random (MAR), meaning the tendency for the variables to be missing is not related to the missing data, but it is related to the observed data.<br />
<br />
'''Missing Data Imputation'''<br />
<br />
Assuming that missing data follows an MAR pattern, multiple imputation is used as a technique to fill in the values of missing data. The steps involved in Multiple Imputation are the following: <br />
<br />
Imputation: Imputation of the missing values is done over several steps and this results in a number of complete data sets. Imputation is done via a predictive model like linear regression to predict these missing values based on other variables in the data set.<br />
<br />
Analysis: The complete data sets that are formed are analyzed and parameter estimates and standard errors are calculated.<br />
<br />
Pooling: The analysis results are then integrated to form a final data set that is then used for further analysis.<br />
<br />
'''Comparison of Feature Selection and Feature Extraction'''<br />
<br />
The Correlation based Feature Selection (CFS) method was performed using the Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis. It was implemented using a BestFirst search method on a CfsSubsetEval attribute evaluator. 33 variables were selected out the total of 117 features. <br />
PCA was implemented via a RankerSearch Method using a Principal Components Attributes Evaluator. Out of the 117 features, those that had a standard deviation of more than 0.5 times the standard deviation of the first principal component were selected and this resulted in 20 features for further analysis. <br />
After dimensionality reduction, this reduced data set was exported and used for building prediction models using the four machine learning algorithms discussed before – REPTree, Multiple Linear Regression, Random Tree and ANNs. The results are shown in the Table below: <br />
<br />
[[File:Comparison of Results between CFS and PCA.png]]<br />
<br />
For CFS, the REPTree model had the lowest MAE and RMSE. For PCA, Multiple Linear Regression Model had the lowest MAE as well as RMSE. So, for this dataset, it seems that overall, Multiple Linear Regression and REPTree Models are the two best ones in terms of lowest error rates. In terms of dimensionality reduction, it seems that CFS is a better method than PCA for this data set as the MAE and RMSE values are lower for all ML methods except ANNs.<br />
<br />
'''Conclusion and Further Work'''<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
<br />
Predictive Analytics in the Life Insurance Industry is enabling faster customer service and lower costs by helping automate the process of Underwriting, thereby increasing satisfaction and loyalty. <br />
In this study, the authors analyzed data obtained from Prudential Life Insurance to predict risk scores via Supervised Machine Learning Algorithms. The data was first pre-processed to first replace the missing values. Attributes having more than 30% of missing data were eliminated from analysis. <br />
Two methods of dimensionality reduction – CFS and PCA were used and the number of attributes used for further analysis were reduced to 33 and 20 via these two methods. The Machine Learning Algorithms that were implemented were – REPTree, Random Tree, Multiple Linear Regression and Artificial Neural Networks. Model validation was performed via a ten-fold cross validation. The performance of the models was evaluated using MAE and RMSE measures. <br />
Using the PCA method, Multiple Linear Regression showed the best results with MAE and RMSE values of 1.64 and 2.06 respectively. With CFS, REPTree had the highest accuracy with MAE and RMSE values of 1.52 and 2.02 respectively. <br />
Further work can be directed towards dealing all the variables rather than deleting the ones where more than 30% of the values are missing. Customer segmentation, i.e. grouping customers based on their profiles can help companies come up with customized policy for each group. This can be done via unsupervised algorithms like clustering. Work can also be done to make the models more explainable especially if we are using PCA and ANNs to analyze data. We can also get indirect data about the prospective applicant like their driving behavior, education record etc to see if these attributes contribute to better risk profiling than the already available data.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Critiques'''<br />
<br />
----<br />
Since the project built multiple models and had utilized various methods to evaluate the result. They could potentially ensemble the prediction, such as averaging the result of the different models, to achieve a better accuracy result. Another method is model stacking, we can input the result of one model as input into another model for better results. However, they do have some major setbacks: sometimes, the result could be effect negatively (ie: increase the RMSE). In addition, if the improvement is not prominent, it would make the process much more complex thus cost time and effort. In a research setting, stacking and ensembling are definitely worth a try. In a real-life business case, it is more of a trade-off between accuracy and effort/cost. <br />
<br />
<br />
'''References'''<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
<br />
Chen, T. (2016). Corporate reputation and financial performance of Life Insurers. Geneva Papers Risk Insur Issues Pract, 378-397.<br />
<br />
Cummins J, S. B. (2013). Risk classification in Life Insurance. Springer 1st Edition.<br />
<br />
J Carson, C. E. (2017). Sunk costs and screening: two-part tariffs in life insurance. SSRN Electron J, 1-26.<br />
<br />
Jayabalan, N. B. (2018). Risk prediction in life insurance industry using supervised learning algorithms. Complex & Intelligent Systems, 145-154.<br />
<br />
Mishr, K. (2016). Fundamentals of life insurance theories and applications. PHI Learning Pvt Ltd.<br />
<br />
Prince, A. (2016). Tantamount to fraud? Exploring non-disclosure of genetic information in life insurance applications as grounds for policy recession. Health Matrix, 255-307.</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=User:Bsharman&diff=43760User:Bsharman2020-11-11T02:32:59Z<p>B22chang: </p>
<hr />
<div>'''Risk prediction in life insurance industry using supervised learning algorithms'''<br />
<br />
'''Presented By'''<br />
<br />
Bharat Sharman, Dylan Li, Leonie Lu, Mingdao Li<br />
<br />
'''Introduction'''<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
Risk assessment lies at the core of the Life Insurance Industry. It is extremely important for a Life Insurance Company to assess the risk of an application accurately in order to make sure that applications with an actual low risk are accepted and an actual high risk are rejected. Otherwise, individuals with an unacceptably high risk profile will be issued policies and when they pass away, the company will face large losses due to high insurance payouts. Such a situation is called ‘Adverse Selection’, where individuals who are most likely to suffer losses take insurance and those who are not likely to suffer losses do not and thus, the company suffers losses as a result.<br />
<br />
Traditionally, the process of Underwriting (deciding whether or not to insure the life of an individual) has been done using Actuarial calculations. Actuaries group customers according to their estimated levels of risk determined from historical data. (Cummins J, 2013) However, these conventional techniques are time consuming and it is not uncommon to take a month to issue a policy. They are expensive as a lot of manual processes need to be executed and a lot of data needs to be imported for the purpose of calculation. <br />
<br />
Predictive Analysis has emerged as a useful technique to streamline the underwriting process to reduce the time of Policy issuance and to improve the accuracy of risk prediction. In this paper, the authors use data from Prudential Life Insurance company and investigate the most appropriate data extraction method and the most appropriate algorithm to assess risk. <br />
<br />
'''Literature Review'''<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
<br />
Before a Life Insurance company issues a policy, it must execute a series of underwriting related tasks (Mishr, 2016). These tasks involve gathering extensive information about the applicant. The insurer has to analyze the employment, medical, family and insurance histories of the applicant and factor all of them into a complicated series of calculations to determine the risk rating of the applicant. On basis of this risk rating, premiums are calculated (Prince, 2016).<br />
<br />
In a competitive marketplace, customers need policies to be issued quickly and long wait times can lead to them switch to other providers (Chen 2016). In addition, the costs of doing the data gathering and analysis can be expensive. The insurance company bears the expenses of the medical examinations and if a policy lapses, then the insurer has to bear the losses of all these costs (J Carson, 2017). If the underwriting process uses Predictive Analytics, then the costs and time associated with many of these processes can be reduced via streamlining. <br />
<br />
'''Methods and Techniques'''<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
<br />
In Figure 1, the process flow of the analytics approach has been depicted. These stages will now be described in the following sections.<br />
<br />
[[File:Data_Analytics_Process_Flow.PNG]]<br />
<br />
'''Description of the Dataset'''<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
<br />
The data is obtained from the Kaggle competition hosted by the Prudential Life Insurance company. It has 59381 applications with 128 attributes. The attributes are continuous and discrete as well as categorical variables. <br />
The data attributes, their types and the description is shown in Table 1 below:<br />
<br />
[[File:Data Attributes Types and Description.png]]<br />
<br />
'''Data Pre-Processing'''<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
<br />
In the data preprocessing step, missing values in the data are either imputed or those entries are dropped and some of the attributes are either transformed in a different form to make the subsequent processing of data easier. This decision is made after determining the mechanism of missingness, that is if the data is Missing Completely at Random (MCAR), Missing at Random (MAR), or Missing Not at Random (MNAR). <br />
<br />
'''Dimensionality Reduction''' <br />
<br />
In this paper, there are two methods that have been used for dimensionality reduction – <br />
<br />
1.Correlation based Feature Selection (CFS): This is a feature selection method in which a subset of features from the original features is selected. In this method, the algorithm selects features from the dataset that are highly correlated with the output but are not correlated with each other. The user does not need to specify the number of features to be selected. The correlation values are calculated based measures such a Pearson’s coefficient, minimum description length, symmetrical uncertainty and relief. <br />
<br />
2.Principal Components Analysis (PCA): PCA is a feature extraction method that transforms existing features into new sets of features such that the correlation between them is zero and these transformed features explain the maximum variability in the data. <br />
<br />
<br />
'''Supervised Learning Algorithms'''<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
<br />
The four Algorithms that have been used in this paper are the following:<br />
<br />
1.Multiple Linear Regression: In MLR, the relationship between the dependent and the two or more independent variables is predicted by fitting a linear model. The model parameters are calculated by minimizing the sum of squares of the errors. The significance of the variables is determined by tests like the F test and the p-values. <br />
<br />
2.REPTree: REPTree stands for reduced error pruning tree. It can build both classification and regression trees, depending on the type of the response variable. In this case, it uses regression tree logic and creates many trees across several iterations. This algorithm develops these trees based on the principles of information gain and variance reduction. At the time of pruning the tree, the algorithm uses the lowest mean square error to select the best tree. <br />
<br />
3.Random Tree (Also known as the Random Forest): A random tree selects some of the attributes at each node in the decision tree and builds a tree based on random selection of data as well as attributes. Random Tree does not do pruning. Instead, it estimates class probabilities based on a hold-out set.<br />
<br />
4.Artificial Neural Network: In a neural network, the inputs are transformed into outputs via a series of layered units where each of these units transforms the input received by it via a function into an output that gets further transmitted to units down the line. The weights that are used to weigh the inputs are improved after each iteration via a method called backpropagation in which errors propagate backward in the network and are used to update the weights to make the computed output closer to the actual output.<br />
<br />
'''Experiments and Results'''<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Missing Data Mechanism'''<br />
<br />
Attributes where more than 30% of Data was missing were dropped from the analysis. The data was tested for Missing Completely at Random (MCAR), one form of the nature of missing values using the Little Test. The null Hypothesis that the missing data was completely random had a p value of 0 meaning, MCAR was rejected. Then, all the variables were plotted to check how many missing values that they had and the results are shown in the figure below:<br />
<br />
[[File:Missing Value Plot of Training Data.png]]<br />
<br />
The variables that have the most number of missing variables are plotted at the top and that have the least number of missing variables are plotted at the bottom of the y-axis in the figure above. There does not seem to a pattern to the missing variables and therefore they are assumed to be Missing at Random (MAR), meaning the tendency for the variables to be missing is not related to the missing data, but it is related to the observed data.<br />
<br />
'''Missing Data Imputation'''<br />
<br />
Assuming that missing data follows an MAR pattern, multiple imputation is used as a technique to fill in the values of missing data. The steps involved in Multiple Imputation are the following: <br />
<br />
Imputation: Imputation of the missing values is done over several steps and this results in a number of complete data sets. Imputation is done via a predictive model like linear regression to predict these missing values based on other variables in the data set.<br />
<br />
Analysis: The complete data sets that are formed are analyzed and parameter estimates and standard errors are calculated.<br />
<br />
Pooling: The analysis results are then integrated to form a final data set that is then used for further analysis.<br />
<br />
'''Comparison of Feature Selection and Feature Extraction'''<br />
<br />
The Correlation based Feature Selection (CFS) method was performed using the Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis. It was implemented using a BestFirst search method on a CfsSubsetEval attribute evaluator. 33 variables were selected out the total of 117 features. <br />
PCA was implemented via a RankerSearch Method using a Principal Components Attributes Evaluator. Out of the 117 features, those that had a standard deviation of more than 0.5 times the standard deviation of the first principal component were selected and this resulted in 20 features for further analysis. <br />
After dimensionality reduction, this reduced data set was exported and used for building prediction models using the four machine learning algorithms discussed before – REPTree, Multiple Linear Regression, Random Tree and ANNs. The results are shown in the Table below: <br />
<br />
[[File:Comparison of Results between CFS and PCA.png]]<br />
<br />
For CFS, the REPTree model had the lowest MAE and RMSE. For PCA, Multiple Linear Regression Model had the lowest MAE as well as RMSE. So, for this dataset, it seems that overall, Multiple Linear Regression and REPTree Models are the two best ones in terms of lowest error rates. In terms of dimensionality reduction, it seems that CFS is a better method than PCA for this data set as the MAE and RMSE values are lower for all ML methods except ANNs.<br />
<br />
'''Conclusion and Further Work'''<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
<br />
Predictive Analytics in the Life Insurance Industry is enabling faster customer service and lower costs by helping automate the process of Underwriting. <br />
In this study, the authors analyzed data obtained from Prudential Life Insurance to predict risk scores via Supervised Machine Learning Algorithms. The data was first pre-processed to first replace the missing values. Attributes having more than 30% of missing data were eliminated from analysis. <br />
Two methods of dimensionality reduction – CFS and PCA were used and the number of attributes used for further analysis were reduced to 33 and 20 via these two methods. The Machine Learning Algorithms that were implemented were – REPTree, Random Tree, Multiple Linear Regression and Artificial Neural Networks. Model validation was performed via a ten-fold cross validation. The performance of the models was evaluated using MAE and RMSE measures. <br />
Using the PCA method, Multiple Linear Regression showed the best results with MAE and RMSE values of 1.64 and 2.06 respectively. With CFS, REPTree had the highest accuracy with MAE and RMSE values of 1.52 and 2.02 respectively. <br />
Further work can be directed towards dealing all the variables rather than deleting the ones where more than 30% of the values are missing. Customer segmentation, i.e. grouping customers based on their profiles can help companies come up with customized policy for each group. This can be done via unsupervised algorithms like clustering. Work can also be done to make the models more explainable especially if we are using PCA and ANNs to analyze data. We can also get indirect data about the prospective applicant like their driving behavior, education record etc to see if these attributes contribute to better risk profiling than the already available data.<br />
<br />
<br />
'''Critiques'''<br />
<br />
----<br />
Since the project built multiple models and had utilized various methods to evaluate the result. They could potentially ensemble the prediction, such as averaging the result of the different models, to achieve a better accuracy result. Another method is model stacking, we can input the result of one model as input into another model for better results. However, they do have some major setbacks: sometimes, the result could be effect negatively (ie: increase the RMSE). In addition, if the improvement is not prominent, it would make the process much more complex thus cost time and effort. In a research setting, stacking and ensembling are definitely worth a try. In a real-life business case, it is more of a trade-off between accuracy and effort/cost. <br />
<br />
<br />
'''References'''<br />
<br />
----<br />
<br />
<br />
Chen, T. (2016). Corporate reputation and financial performance of Life Insurers. Geneva Papers Risk Insur Issues Pract, 378-397.<br />
<br />
Cummins J, S. B. (2013). Risk classification in Life Insurance. Springer 1st Edition.<br />
<br />
J Carson, C. E. (2017). Sunk costs and screening: two-part tariffs in life insurance. SSRN Electron J, 1-26.<br />
<br />
Jayabalan, N. B. (2018). Risk prediction in life insurance industry using supervised learning algorithms. Complex & Intelligent Systems, 145-154.<br />
<br />
Mishr, K. (2016). Fundamentals of life insurance theories and applications. PHI Learning Pvt Ltd.<br />
<br />
Prince, A. (2016). Tantamount to fraud? Exploring non-disclosure of genetic information in life insurance applications as grounds for policy recession. Health Matrix, 255-307.</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=Going_Deeper_with_Convolutions&diff=43759Going Deeper with Convolutions2020-11-11T02:26:45Z<p>B22chang: /* Conclusion */</p>
<hr />
<div>== Presented by == <br />
Sai Praneeth M, Xudong Peng, Alice Li, Shahrzad Hosseini Vajargah<br />
<br />
== Introduction == <br />
This paper presents a deep convolutional neural network architecture codenamed Inception. This newly designed architecture enhances the utilization of the computing resources by increasing the depth and width of the network, while maintaining the computational budget constraint. The optimization of the model was achieved by the Hebbian principle (Footnote 1) and the intuition of multi-scale processing. The proposed architecture was implemented through a 22 layers deep network called GoogLeNet and significantly outperformed the state of the art in the ImageNet Large-Scale Visual Recognition Challenge 2014 (ILSVRC14).<br />
<br />
== Previous Work == <br />
<br />
The current architecture is built on the network-in-network approach proposed by Lin et al.[1] for the purpose of increase the representation power of the neural networks. They added additional 1 X 1 convolutional layers, serving as dimension reduction modules to significantly reduce the number of parameters of the model. The paper also took inspiration from the Regions with Convolutional Neural Networks (R-CNN) proposed by Girshick et al. [2]. The overall detection problem is divided into two subproblems: to first utilize low-level cues for potential object proposals, and to then use CNN to classify object categories.<br />
<br />
== Motivation == <br />
<br />
The performance of deep neural networks can be improved by increasing the depth and the width of the networks. However, this suffers two major bottlenecks. One disadvantage is that the enlarged network tends to overfit the train data, especially if there is only limited labeled examples. The other drawback is the dramatic increase in computational resources when learning large number of parameters.<br />
<br />
The fundamental way of handling both problems would be to use sparsely connected instead of fully connected networks and, at the same time, make numerical calculation on non-uniform sparse data structures efficient. Therefore, the inception architecture was motivated by Arora et al. [3] and Catalyurek et al. [4] and overcome these difficulties by clustering sparse matrices into relatively dense submatrices. It takes advantage of both extra sparsity and existing computational hardware.<br />
<br />
== Model Architecture == <br />
The Inception architecture consists of stacking blocks called the inception modules. The idea is that to increase the depth and width of model by finding local optimal sparse structure and repeating it spatially. Traditionally, in each layer of convolutional network pooling operation and convolution and its size (1 by 1, 3 by 3 or 5 by 5) should be decided while all of them are beneficial for the modeling power of the network. Whereas, in Inception module instead of choosing, all these various options are computed simultaneously (Fig. 1a). Inspired by layer-by-layer construction of Arora et al. [3], in Inception module statistics correlation of the last layer is analyzed and clustered into groups of units with high correlation. These clusters form units of next layer and are connected to the units of previous layer. Each unit from the earlier layer corresponds to some region of the input image and the outputs of them are concatenated into a filter bank. Additionally, because of the beneficial effect of pooling in the convolutional networks, a parallel path of pooling has been added in each module. The Inception module in its naïve form (Fig. 1a) suffers from high computation and power cost. In addition, as the concatenated output from the various convolutions and the pooling layer will be an extremely deep channel of output volume, the claim that this architecture has an improved memory and computation power use looks like counterintuitive. However, this issue has been addressed by adding a 1 by 1 convolution before costly 3 by 3 and 5 by 5 convolutions. The idea of 1 by 1 convolution was first introduced by Lin et al. and called network in network [1]. This 1x1 convolution mathematically is equivalent to a multilayer perceptron which reduces the dimension of filter space (the depth of the output volume) and on top of that they also act as a non-linear rectifying activation layer ReLu to add to the non-linearity immediately after each 1 by 1 convolution (Fig. 1b). This enables less over-fitting due to smaller Kernel size (1 by 1). This distinctive dimensionality reduction feature of the 1 by 1 convolution allows shielding of the large number of input filters of the previous stage to the next stage (Footnote 2).<br />
<br />
[[File:Inception module, naıve version.JPG | center]]<br />
<br />
<div align="center">Figure 1(a): Inception module, naïve version</div><br />
<br />
[[File:Inception module with dimension reductions.JPG | center]]<br />
<br />
<div align="center">Figure 1(b): Inception module with dimension reductions</div><br />
<br />
The combination of various layers of convolution has some similarity with human eyes in interpreting the visual information in a sense that human eyes also process the visual information at various scale and combines to extract the features from different scale simultaneously. Similarly, in inception design network in network designs extract the fine grain details of input volume while medium- and large-sized filters cover a large receptive field of the inputs and extract their features and with pooling operations overfitting can be overcome by reducing the spatial sizes.<br />
<br />
== ILSVRC 2014 Challenge Results ==<br />
The proposed architecture was implemented through a deep network called GoogLeNet as a submission for ILSVRC14’s Classification Challenge and Detection Challenge. <br />
<br />
The classification challenge is to classify images into one of 1000 categories in the Imagenet hierarchy. The top-5 error rate - the percentage of test examples for which the correct class is not in the top 5 predicted classes - is used for measuring accuracy. The results of the classification challenge is shown in Table 1. The final submission of GoogLeNet obtains a top-5 error of 6.67% on both the validation and testing data, ranking first among all participants, significantly outperforming top teams in previous years, and not utilizing external data.<br />
<br />
[[File:Classiﬁcation performance.JPG | center]]<br />
<br />
<div align="center">Table 1: Classiﬁcation performance</div><br />
<br />
The ILSVRC detection challenge asks to produce bounding boxes around objects in images among 200 classes. Detected objects count as correct if they match the class of the groundtruth and their bounding boxes overlap by at least 50%. Each image may contain multiple objects (with different scales) or none. The mean average precision (mAP) is used to report performance. The results of the detection challenge is listed in Table 2. Using the Inception model as a region classifier, combining Selective Search and using an ensemble of 6 CNNs, GoogLeNet gave top detection results, almost doubling accuracy of the the 2013 top model.<br />
<br />
[[File:Detection performance.JPG | center]]<br />
<br />
<div align="center">Table 2: Detection performance</div><br />
<br />
== Conclusion ==<br />
Googlenet outperformed the other previous deep learning networks, and it became a proof of concept that approximating the expected optimal sparse structure by readily available dense building blocks (or the inception modules) is a viable method for improving the neural networks in computer vision. The significant quality gain is at a modest increase for the computational requirement is the main advantage for this method. Even without performing any bounding box operations to detect objects, this architecture gained a significant amount of quality with a modest amount of computational resources.<br />
<br />
== Critiques ==<br />
By using nearly 5 million parameters, GoogLeNet represented nearly a 12 times reduction in terms of parameters compared it the previous architectures like VGGNet, AlexNet. This enabled Inception network to be used for many big data applications where a huge amount of data was needed to be processed at a reasonable cost while the computational capacity was limited. However, the inception network is still complex and susceptible to scaling. If the network is scaled up, large parts of the computational gains can be lost immediately. Also there was no clear description about the various factors that lead to the design decision of this inception architecture, making it harder to adapt to other applications while maintaining the same computational efficiency.<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
[1] Min Lin, Qiang Chen, and Shuicheng Yan. Network in network. CoRR, abs/1312.4400, 2013.<br />
<br />
[2] Ross B. Girshick, Jeff Donahue, Trevor Darrell, and Jitendra Malik. Rich feature hierarchies for accurate object detection and semantic segmentation. In Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition, 2014. CVPR 2014. IEEE Conference on, 2014.<br />
<br />
[3] Sanjeev Arora, Aditya Bhaskara, Rong Ge, and Tengyu Ma. Provable bounds for learning some deep representations. CoRR, abs/1310.6343, 2013.<br />
<br />
[4] ¨Umit V. C¸ ataly¨urek, Cevdet Aykanat, and Bora Uc¸ar. On two-dimensional sparse matrix partitioning: Models, methods, and a recipe. SIAM J. Sci. Comput., 32(2):656–683, February 2010.<br />
<br />
Footnote 1: Hebbian theory is a neuroscientific theory claiming that an increase in synaptic <br />
efficacy arises from a presynaptic cell's repeated and persistent stimulation of a postsynaptic <br />
cell. It is an attempt to explain synaptic plasticity, the adaptation of brain neurons during the learning process.<br />
<br />
Footnote 2: Fore more explanation on 1 by 1 convolution refer to: https://iamaaditya.github.io/2016/03/one-by-one-convolution/</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=Going_Deeper_with_Convolutions&diff=43758Going Deeper with Convolutions2020-11-11T02:23:26Z<p>B22chang: /* Previous Work */</p>
<hr />
<div>== Presented by == <br />
Sai Praneeth M, Xudong Peng, Alice Li, Shahrzad Hosseini Vajargah<br />
<br />
== Introduction == <br />
This paper presents a deep convolutional neural network architecture codenamed Inception. This newly designed architecture enhances the utilization of the computing resources by increasing the depth and width of the network, while maintaining the computational budget constraint. The optimization of the model was achieved by the Hebbian principle (Footnote 1) and the intuition of multi-scale processing. The proposed architecture was implemented through a 22 layers deep network called GoogLeNet and significantly outperformed the state of the art in the ImageNet Large-Scale Visual Recognition Challenge 2014 (ILSVRC14).<br />
<br />
== Previous Work == <br />
<br />
The current architecture is built on the network-in-network approach proposed by Lin et al.[1] for the purpose of increase the representation power of the neural networks. They added additional 1 X 1 convolutional layers, serving as dimension reduction modules to significantly reduce the number of parameters of the model. The paper also took inspiration from the Regions with Convolutional Neural Networks (R-CNN) proposed by Girshick et al. [2]. The overall detection problem is divided into two subproblems: to first utilize low-level cues for potential object proposals, and to then use CNN to classify object categories.<br />
<br />
== Motivation == <br />
<br />
The performance of deep neural networks can be improved by increasing the depth and the width of the networks. However, this suffers two major bottlenecks. One disadvantage is that the enlarged network tends to overfit the train data, especially if there is only limited labeled examples. The other drawback is the dramatic increase in computational resources when learning large number of parameters.<br />
<br />
The fundamental way of handling both problems would be to use sparsely connected instead of fully connected networks and, at the same time, make numerical calculation on non-uniform sparse data structures efficient. Therefore, the inception architecture was motivated by Arora et al. [3] and Catalyurek et al. [4] and overcome these difficulties by clustering sparse matrices into relatively dense submatrices. It takes advantage of both extra sparsity and existing computational hardware.<br />
<br />
== Model Architecture == <br />
The Inception architecture consists of stacking blocks called the inception modules. The idea is that to increase the depth and width of model by finding local optimal sparse structure and repeating it spatially. Traditionally, in each layer of convolutional network pooling operation and convolution and its size (1 by 1, 3 by 3 or 5 by 5) should be decided while all of them are beneficial for the modeling power of the network. Whereas, in Inception module instead of choosing, all these various options are computed simultaneously (Fig. 1a). Inspired by layer-by-layer construction of Arora et al. [3], in Inception module statistics correlation of the last layer is analyzed and clustered into groups of units with high correlation. These clusters form units of next layer and are connected to the units of previous layer. Each unit from the earlier layer corresponds to some region of the input image and the outputs of them are concatenated into a filter bank. Additionally, because of the beneficial effect of pooling in the convolutional networks, a parallel path of pooling has been added in each module. The Inception module in its naïve form (Fig. 1a) suffers from high computation and power cost. In addition, as the concatenated output from the various convolutions and the pooling layer will be an extremely deep channel of output volume, the claim that this architecture has an improved memory and computation power use looks like counterintuitive. However, this issue has been addressed by adding a 1 by 1 convolution before costly 3 by 3 and 5 by 5 convolutions. The idea of 1 by 1 convolution was first introduced by Lin et al. and called network in network [1]. This 1x1 convolution mathematically is equivalent to a multilayer perceptron which reduces the dimension of filter space (the depth of the output volume) and on top of that they also act as a non-linear rectifying activation layer ReLu to add to the non-linearity immediately after each 1 by 1 convolution (Fig. 1b). This enables less over-fitting due to smaller Kernel size (1 by 1). This distinctive dimensionality reduction feature of the 1 by 1 convolution allows shielding of the large number of input filters of the previous stage to the next stage (Footnote 2).<br />
<br />
[[File:Inception module, naıve version.JPG | center]]<br />
<br />
<div align="center">Figure 1(a): Inception module, naïve version</div><br />
<br />
[[File:Inception module with dimension reductions.JPG | center]]<br />
<br />
<div align="center">Figure 1(b): Inception module with dimension reductions</div><br />
<br />
The combination of various layers of convolution has some similarity with human eyes in interpreting the visual information in a sense that human eyes also process the visual information at various scale and combines to extract the features from different scale simultaneously. Similarly, in inception design network in network designs extract the fine grain details of input volume while medium- and large-sized filters cover a large receptive field of the inputs and extract their features and with pooling operations overfitting can be overcome by reducing the spatial sizes.<br />
<br />
== ILSVRC 2014 Challenge Results ==<br />
The proposed architecture was implemented through a deep network called GoogLeNet as a submission for ILSVRC14’s Classification Challenge and Detection Challenge. <br />
<br />
The classification challenge is to classify images into one of 1000 categories in the Imagenet hierarchy. The top-5 error rate - the percentage of test examples for which the correct class is not in the top 5 predicted classes - is used for measuring accuracy. The results of the classification challenge is shown in Table 1. The final submission of GoogLeNet obtains a top-5 error of 6.67% on both the validation and testing data, ranking first among all participants, significantly outperforming top teams in previous years, and not utilizing external data.<br />
<br />
[[File:Classiﬁcation performance.JPG | center]]<br />
<br />
<div align="center">Table 1: Classiﬁcation performance</div><br />
<br />
The ILSVRC detection challenge asks to produce bounding boxes around objects in images among 200 classes. Detected objects count as correct if they match the class of the groundtruth and their bounding boxes overlap by at least 50%. Each image may contain multiple objects (with different scales) or none. The mean average precision (mAP) is used to report performance. The results of the detection challenge is listed in Table 2. Using the Inception model as a region classifier, combining Selective Search and using an ensemble of 6 CNNs, GoogLeNet gave top detection results, almost doubling accuracy of the the 2013 top model.<br />
<br />
[[File:Detection performance.JPG | center]]<br />
<br />
<div align="center">Table 2: Detection performance</div><br />
<br />
== Conclusion ==<br />
Googlenet outperformed the other previous deep learning networks, and it became a proof of concept that approximating the expected optimal sparse structure by readily available dense building blocks (or the inception modules) is a viable method for improving the neural networks in computer vision. Even without performing any bounding box operations to detect objects, this architecture gained a significant amount of quality with a modest amount of computational resources.<br />
<br />
== Critiques ==<br />
By using nearly 5 million parameters, GoogLeNet represented nearly a 12 times reduction in terms of parameters compared it the previous architectures like VGGNet, AlexNet. This enabled Inception network to be used for many big data applications where a huge amount of data was needed to be processed at a reasonable cost while the computational capacity was limited. However, the inception network is still complex and susceptible to scaling. If the network is scaled up, large parts of the computational gains can be lost immediately. Also there was no clear description about the various factors that lead to the design decision of this inception architecture, making it harder to adapt to other applications while maintaining the same computational efficiency.<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
[1] Min Lin, Qiang Chen, and Shuicheng Yan. Network in network. CoRR, abs/1312.4400, 2013.<br />
<br />
[2] Ross B. Girshick, Jeff Donahue, Trevor Darrell, and Jitendra Malik. Rich feature hierarchies for accurate object detection and semantic segmentation. In Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition, 2014. CVPR 2014. IEEE Conference on, 2014.<br />
<br />
[3] Sanjeev Arora, Aditya Bhaskara, Rong Ge, and Tengyu Ma. Provable bounds for learning some deep representations. CoRR, abs/1310.6343, 2013.<br />
<br />
[4] ¨Umit V. C¸ ataly¨urek, Cevdet Aykanat, and Bora Uc¸ar. On two-dimensional sparse matrix partitioning: Models, methods, and a recipe. SIAM J. Sci. Comput., 32(2):656–683, February 2010.<br />
<br />
Footnote 1: Hebbian theory is a neuroscientific theory claiming that an increase in synaptic <br />
efficacy arises from a presynaptic cell's repeated and persistent stimulation of a postsynaptic <br />
cell. It is an attempt to explain synaptic plasticity, the adaptation of brain neurons during the learning process.<br />
<br />
Footnote 2: Fore more explanation on 1 by 1 convolution refer to: https://iamaaditya.github.io/2016/03/one-by-one-convolution/</div>B22changhttp://wiki.math.uwaterloo.ca/statwiki/index.php?title=Going_Deeper_with_Convolutions&diff=43757Going Deeper with Convolutions2020-11-11T02:22:52Z<p>B22chang: /* Previous Work */</p>
<hr />
<div>== Presented by == <br />
Sai Praneeth M, Xudong Peng, Alice Li, Shahrzad Hosseini Vajargah<br />
<br />
== Introduction == <br />
This paper presents a deep convolutional neural network architecture codenamed Inception. This newly designed architecture enhances the utilization of the computing resources by increasing the depth and width of the network, while maintaining the computational budget constraint. The optimization of the model was achieved by the Hebbian principle (Footnote 1) and the intuition of multi-scale processing. The proposed architecture was implemented through a 22 layers deep network called GoogLeNet and significantly outperformed the state of the art in the ImageNet Large-Scale Visual Recognition Challenge 2014 (ILSVRC14).<br />
<br />
== Previous Work == <br />
<br />
The current architecture is built on the network-in-network approach proposed by Lin et al. for the purpose of increase the representation power of the neural networks. They added additional 1 X 1 convolutional layers, serving as dimension reduction modules to significantly reduce the number of parameters of the model. The paper also took inspiration from the Regions with Convolutional Neural Networks (R-CNN) proposed by Girshick et al. [2]. The overall detection problem is divided into two subproblems: to first utilize low-level cues for potential object proposals, and to then use CNN to classify object categories.<br />
<br />
== Motivation == <br />
<br />
The performance of deep neural networks can be improved by increasing the depth and the width of the networks. However, this suffers two major bottlenecks. One disadvantage is that the enlarged network tends to overfit the train data, especially if there is only limited labeled examples. The other drawback is the dramatic increase in computational resources when learning large number of parameters.<br />
<br />
The fundamental way of handling both problems would be to use sparsely connected instead of fully connected networks and, at the same time, make numerical calculation on non-uniform sparse data structures efficient. Therefore, the inception architecture was motivated by Arora et al. [3] and Catalyurek et al. [4] and overcome these difficulties by clustering sparse matrices into relatively dense submatrices. It takes advantage of both extra sparsity and existing computational hardware.<br />
<br />
== Model Architecture == <br />
The Inception architecture consists of stacking blocks called the inception modules. The idea is that to increase the depth and width of model by finding local optimal sparse structure and repeating it spatially. Traditionally, in each layer of convolutional network pooling operation and convolution and its size (1 by 1, 3 by 3 or 5 by 5) should be decided while all of them are beneficial for the modeling power of the network. Whereas, in Inception module instead of choosing, all these various options are computed simultaneously (Fig. 1a). Inspired by layer-by-layer construction of Arora et al. [3], in Inception module statistics correlation of the last layer is analyzed and clustered into groups of units with high correlation. These clusters form units of next layer and are connected to the units of previous layer. Each unit from the earlier layer corresponds to some region of the input image and the outputs of them are concatenated into a filter bank. Additionally, because of the beneficial effect of pooling in the convolutional networks, a parallel path of pooling has been added in each module. The Inception module in its naïve form (Fig. 1a) suffers from high computation and power cost. In addition, as the concatenated output from the various convolutions and the pooling layer will be an extremely deep channel of output volume, the claim that this architecture has an improved memory and computation power use looks like counterintuitive. However, this issue has been addressed by adding a 1 by 1 convolution before costly 3 by 3 and 5 by 5 convolutions. The idea of 1 by 1 convolution was first introduced by Lin et al. and called network in network [1]. This 1x1 convolution mathematically is equivalent to a multilayer perceptron which reduces the dimension of filter space (the depth of the output volume) and on top of that they also act as a non-linear rectifying activation layer ReLu to add to the non-linearity immediately after each 1 by 1 convolution (Fig. 1b). This enables less over-fitting due to smaller Kernel size (1 by 1). This distinctive dimensionality reduction feature of the 1 by 1 convolution allows shielding of the large number of input filters of the previous stage to the next stage (Footnote 2).<br />
<br />
[[File:Inception module, naıve version.JPG | center]]<br />
<br />
<div align="center">Figure 1(a): Inception module, naïve version</div><br />
<br />
[[File:Inception module with dimension reductions.JPG | center]]<br />
<br />
<div align="center">Figure 1(b): Inception module with dimension reductions</div><br />
<br />
The combination of various layers of convolution has some similarity with human eyes in interpreting the visual information in a sense that human eyes also process the visual information at various scale and combines to extract the features from different scale simultaneously. Similarly, in inception design network in network designs extract the fine grain details of input volume while medium- and large-sized filters cover a large receptive field of the inputs and extract their features and with pooling operations overfitting can be overcome by reducing the spatial sizes.<br />
<br />
== ILSVRC 2014 Challenge Results ==<br />
The proposed architecture was implemented through a deep network called GoogLeNet as a submission for ILSVRC14’s Classification Challenge and Detection Challenge. <br />
<br />
The classification challenge is to classify images into one of 1000 categories in the Imagenet hierarchy. The top-5 error rate - the percentage of test examples for which the correct class is not in the top 5 predicted classes - is used for measuring accuracy. The results of the classification challenge is shown in Table 1. The final submission of GoogLeNet obtains a top-5 error of 6.67% on both the validation and testing data, ranking first among all participants, significantly outperforming top teams in previous years, and not utilizing external data.<br />
<br />
[[File:Classiﬁcation performance.JPG | center]]<br />
<br />
<div align="center">Table 1: Classiﬁcation performance</div><br />
<br />
The ILSVRC detection challenge asks to produce bounding boxes around objects in images among 200 classes. Detected objects count as correct if they match the class of the groundtruth and their bounding boxes overlap by at least 50%. Each image may contain multiple objects (with different scales) or none. The mean average precision (mAP) is used to report performance. The results of the detection challenge is listed in Table 2. Using the Inception model as a region classifier, combining Selective Search and using an ensemble of 6 CNNs, GoogLeNet gave top detection results, almost doubling accuracy of the the 2013 top model.<br />
<br />
[[File:Detection performance.JPG | center]]<br />
<br />
<div align="center">Table 2: Detection performance</div><br />
<br />
== Conclusion ==<br />
Googlenet outperformed the other previous deep learning networks, and it became a proof of concept that approximating the expected optimal sparse structure by readily available dense building blocks (or the inception modules) is a viable method for improving the neural networks in computer vision. Even without performing any bounding box operations to detect objects, this architecture gained a significant amount of quality with a modest amount of computational resources.<br />
<br />
== Critiques ==<br />
By using nearly 5 million parameters, GoogLeNet represented nearly a 12 times reduction in terms of parameters compared it the previous architectures like VGGNet, AlexNet. This enabled Inception network to be used for many big data applications where a huge amount of data was needed to be processed at a reasonable cost while the computational capacity was limited. However, the inception network is still complex and susceptible to scaling. If the network is scaled up, large parts of the computational gains can be lost immediately. Also there was no clear description about the various factors that lead to the design decision of this inception architecture, making it harder to adapt to other applications while maintaining the same computational efficiency.<br />
<br />
== References ==<br />
[1] Min Lin, Qiang Chen, and Shuicheng Yan. Network in network. CoRR, abs/1312.4400, 2013.<br />
<br />
[2] Ross B. Girshick, Jeff Donahue, Trevor Darrell, and Jitendra Malik. Rich feature hierarchies for accurate object detection and semantic segmentation. In Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition, 2014. CVPR 2014. IEEE Conference on, 2014.<br />
<br />
[3] Sanjeev Arora, Aditya Bhaskara, Rong Ge, and Tengyu Ma. Provable bounds for learning some deep representations. CoRR, abs/1310.6343, 2013.<br />
<br />
[4] ¨Umit V. C¸ ataly¨urek, Cevdet Aykanat, and Bora Uc¸ar. On two-dimensional sparse matrix partitioning: Models, methods, and a recipe. SIAM J. Sci. Comput., 32(2):656–683, February 2010.<br />
<br />
Footnote 1: Hebbian theory is a neuroscientific theory claiming that an increase in synaptic <br />
efficacy arises from a presynaptic cell's repeated and persistent stimulation of a postsynaptic <br />
cell. It is an attempt to explain synaptic plasticity, the adaptation of brain neurons during the learning process.<br />
<br />
Footnote 2: Fore more explanation on 1 by 1 convolution refer to: https://iamaaditya.github.io/2016/03/one-by-one-convolution/</div>B22chang